Maestría en Administración Financiera (tesis)
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Publicación Diseño de una guía metodológica para mejorar las competencias financieras de los estudiantes de grado once del colegio Seminario Menor de Nuestra Señora del Rosario e Instituto Universitario de Caldas, basada en un diagnóstico inicial de sus conocimientos en finanzas(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) León Cardona, Thomas; Gutiérrez Gutiérrez, Brayan; Cruz Castañeda, VivianFinancial education from an early age is fundamental, as it allows for efficient management of economic resources, reduces poverty, and improves social well-being. In the Colegio Seminario Menor de Nuestra Señora del Rosario and Instituto Universitario de Caldas in Manizales, a diagnostic survey was conducted on 115 eleventh-grade students to identify their sociodemographic characteristics and learning opportunities in the area of finance. To address this problem, a financial capacity index was designed, which was correlated with the main demographic variables of the sample through a multiple regression model. In addition, a methodological guide for financial education was constructed with a pedagogical approach based on learning through technological tools. The guide was adapted to the needs of the students to encourage the appropriation of the topic in a real context. This initiative will benefit not only students in their school stage but also in their adult life, promoting a financially literate society.Publicación Análisis de rentabilidad y estabilidad medioambiental a través de inversiones en bonos temáticos en Colombia para el periodo 2017-2024(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Polanco Guevara, Andrés David; Rodríguez Ramírez, Jorge Enrique; Arango Giraldo, MateoThe thematic bond market (green, social and sustainable) has experienced significant growth in recent years, driven by the increasing demand for financial instruments that not only generate economic returns, but also contribute to environmental and social sustainability. The main objective was to analyze the performance of thematic bonds compared to traditional or ordinary bonds, in order to identify their advantages and disadvantages in terms of profitability. The methodology was based on a documentary review and the multiple linear regression method to compare the financial returns of thematic bonds versus ordinary bonds based on the cut-off rate, and the reference TES as a continuous variable. The results indicated that sustainable bonds offer competitive cut-off rates and tangible environmental benefits, such as the reduction of carbon emissions, renewable energy and access to services such as clean drinking water. The conclusions highlight the importance of expanding education on these instruments to consolidate the market and promote a more sustainable and resilient economy.Publicación Efecto de la tasa interbancaria en el precio spot del índice Colcap : un enfoque econométrico y predictivo(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Uribe Arenas, Andrés Mauricio; Restrepo Baena, Andrés Felipe; Botero Ramírez, Juan CarlosThis research investigates how fluctuations in the interbank rate (IBR) influence the spot price of the COLCAP index, using historical data from reliable financial sources. Econometric and machine learning models were employed, such as GARCH-X to measure volatility, SARIMA for time patterns, and neural networks to identify nonlinear relationships. The results indicate that a 1% increase in the IBR reduces Colcap returns by an average of 9.5%, highlighting a significant negative relationship. It is concluded that the COLCAP exerts a unique causation on the IBR, materializing at 5 lags and emphasizing the influence of the stock market on the interbank rate. The neural network models demonstrated greater accuracy in forecasting volatility. Finally, a moderate upward trend for the COLCAP is projected over 12 months, highlighting the monitoring of the IBR as key to strategic financial decision-making.Publicación Tokens digitales para financiar la acción climática y soluciones basadas en la naturaleza mediante tecnología Blockchain(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Paz Garzón, Juan Fernando; Barona Cajiao, Fabián Fernando; David Díaz, Steven; Zea Chávez, Katherine; Durango Gutiérrez, María Patricia; Vergara Garavito, Judith CeciliaThis study explores how digital tokens powered by blockchain technology can serve as effective tools to support nature-based solutions and finance climate action. It is developed through an analysis of the state of the art, a study of successful cases in different markets, and the creation of a methodological framework to promote and manage tokenized financial instruments. The research examines the regulatory and technological challenges faced in adopting this technology as a mechanism to generate more targeted, transparent, and democratized investments. Consequently, this study provides the Colombian government with a set of guidelines for the adoption, promotion, and scalability of digital tokens to finance climate action, as well as recommendations for public policies that support and promote the funding of nature-based solutions.Publicación Análisis de los conglomerados financieros en Colombia como sector estratégico(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Marulanda Duque, Camilo Andrés; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaAs organizations with controlling interests in companies in the Colombian financial sector, financial conglomerates represent a strategic management phenomenon in the sectorial analysis through the five forces model of Michael E. Porter. The study of quantitative and qualitative crowding, proposed by professors Luis Fernando Restrepo Puerta and Hugo Alberto Rivera Rodríguez, provides a starting point for the description and participation of these conglomerates in the Colombian and Latin American financial system, as companies that generate value for their interest groups, mainly for their shareholders. This research aims to describe the value generation of Colombian financial conglomerates through the use of elements and the application of metrics that allow determining, through the quantitative analysis of the selected sector, if there is a strategic convergence in the segments and categories of competition of the companies that make up these conglomerates.Publicación Estructuración financiera de la modernización de la Pequeña Central Hidroeléctrica PCH Urrao(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Peña Correa, Sofía; Guapacha Bueno, Iván Darío; Restrepo Tobón, Diego AlexanderThe modernization project of municipality of Urrao´s, department of Antioquia, Colombia, Small Hydroelectric Plant (SHP), seeks to improve its operational efficiency and reduce risks by updating obsolete equipment and implementing predictive maintenance. From a financial perspective, investment needs, costs and financing options were evaluated, projecting cash flows for ten years under different hydrological scenarios; likewise, debt structures and financing sources were analyzed, ensuring economic viability. Key indicators such as ROI, EVA and Ebitda showed that the 700 and 800 kW configurations were profitable and sustainable, while the 500 kW configuration was not viable. This modernization will allow for the optimization of operating costs, improve energy efficiency and guarantee financial and operational sustainability, benefiting both the owner company and the local community.Publicación Aplicación de modelos predictivos tradicionales y de machine learning para evaluar la insolvencia en el sector salud de Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Girón Ocampo, César Eduardo; Mercado Vargas, Luis Fernando; Cruz Castañeda, Vivian; Álvarez Franco, Pilar BeatrizPublicación Corresponsales bancarios y brechas de género en la inclusión financiera : un análisis del impacto en el crédito y ahorro en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Rojas Pérez, Eliana Marcela; Valencia López, Diana Catalina; Álvarez Franco, Pilar Beatriz; Restrepo Tobón, Diego AlexanderÍtem Implementación de un modelo de planificación financiera para la Clínica Angiosur basada en las estrategias de contratación(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Henao González, Salomé; Correa Lafaurie, Luisa FernandaThis study aims to implement a financial planning model for Clínica Angiosur SAS, focusing on contracting strategies to ensure its long-term sustainability and growth. The research adopts an exploratory and descriptive approach, utilizing financial data from the clinic and its main competitors, as well as sector reports from the WHO and the Colombian Ministry of Health. A comprehensive evaluation of the financial statements, an analysis of costs and revenues, and statistical techniques for financial projections will be conducted. The objective is to identify strategies that optimize financial predictability and resource allocation in service delivery. The expected outcomes include increased revenue, cost reduction, and improved profitability, thereby ensuring the clinic's financial viability in the long termPublicación Modelo fundamental de riesgo de crédito de largo plazo a partir de Credit Default Swaps (CDS) en Latinoamerica(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Zuluaga Giraldo, Hermes Daniel; Restrepo Correa, Daniel; Zamora Largo, Nicolás David; Carballo Tapia, Hans Sebastián; Botero Ramírez, Juan Carlos; Grajales Correa, Carlos AndrésPublicación Determinantes del desempeño financiero de las empresas colombianas del sector de autopartes y accesorios(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Burbano Buitrago, Andrea Catalina; Yepes Raigosa, David AlejandroThe financial performance of companies is a key factor in their growth, as it ensures the sustainability of businesses and contributes to a country's economic development. This research focused on analyzing the impact of financial and macroeconomic factors on the financial performance measured by ROA and ROE of companies in the auto parts and accessories sector in Colombia, during the period 2015-2023. For this purpose, information from the Superintendencia de Sociedades de Colombia, the Central Bank, and DANE was used. The results obtained through OLS and GLS regression models revealed that external factors such as interest rates (Real, lending, spread), devaluation, and inflation have a negative impact on the financial performance of companies. In contrast, GDP showed a positive effect, suggesting that economic growth benefits companies in the automotive sector. Regarding internal factors, leverage had a significantly negative impact on financial performance. On the other hand, net margin and asset turnover demonstrated a positive effect.Publicación Estructuración de las operaciones entre partes relacionadas a partir de una política integral de precios de transferencia aplicada a la empresa Busscar de Colombia SAS y su filial en el exterior(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Flórez Ortega, Iván Manuel; Vinasco Cano, Sarah; Arias Sánchez, Juan ManuelPublicación Modelo para la estimación de cartera vencida en el portafolio de consumo del sector financiero colombiano(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Prens Montes, Isamar del Carmen; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaThis research analyzes the dynamics of the consumer portfolio in the Colombian financial sector, based on the way in which the levels of delinquency and macroeconomic circumstances affect this portfolio. The paper collects historical information from financial and regulatory entities, including indicators such as interest rates, inflation, economic development and levels of delinquency, and carries out the corresponding estimates using quantitative methods such as statistical analysis and econometric models, in order to detect correlations and trends. It is expected to propose a methodology that allows a company in the country´s financial consumer sector to timely anticipate the risk to which it is exposed, given the degree of volatility of the macroeconomic environment.Publicación Caso de estudio : internacionalización El Rancherito(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Mira Mora, Yisell Nallive; Salazar Salazar, Sandra Milena; Pineda Guevara, Andrés Felipe; Waserman Álvarez, Jean PaulThis study case analyzes the international expansion of a Colombian restaurant business into the United States. It will examine in detail the process of opening a new location, considering the key marketing, financial, and operational factors that determine the success or failure of the investment. The study will include an investment valuation and the construction of essential financial indicators for this type of project, providing a deep understanding of the challenges and opportunities Colombian companies face when expanding to new markets, and offering valuable information for future entrepreneurs and companies seeking to grow internationally.Publicación Construcción de un portafolio en el mercado brasileño : un enfoque basado en el modelo de Black-Litterman(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Palacios Racines, Lizeth Carolina; Miller Rengifo, Genner Enrique; Botero Ramírez, Juan CarlosThe equity market represents a significant trading volume, modeling price formation and offering good investment opportunities in both national and international markets. In this context, and with the aim of developing an investment portfolio in Brazil, this research focuses on constructing a portfolio composed of equity assets using the Black-Litterman (BL) model to evaluate its performance compared to other models such as Markowitz and CAPM. Portfolios with weekly periodicity and a time horizon exceeding 10 years will be modeled to compare the returns of BL and the aforementioned models. The findings indicate that the Markowitz model provides more diversified investment opportunities, while BL is more concentrated but aligns with higher return expectations.Publicación Gestión del riesgo cambiario en una empresa exportadora colombiana mediante el uso de derivados(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Montoya Urán, Yenny; Carmona Sánchez, Esteban Giovanni; Cruz Castañeda, VivianThis thesis presents a strategy for managing exchange rate risk in a Colombian exporting company through the application of financial derivatives. The study focuses on a company dedicated to the production of raw materials for food, whose exports in U.S. dollars (USD) currently account for 34% of its sales, with a projected increase to 60%. Using the EGARCH model (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity), the exchange rate between the USD and the Colombian peso (COP) was modeled to evaluate its behavior between 2021 and 2022, enabling a forecast for 2023. This forecast was compared with actual data to assess its accuracy. The results indicated that the EGARCH (1,1) model is the most suitable, achieving a deviation of less than 8% in the final days of comparison. Based on these projections, the necessary coverage amount was determined to mitigate potential impacts on the company’s financial statements and cash flow in 2023. It was concluded that the most appropriate derivative for the company is the Forward contract, and the Value at Risk (VaR) was used to establish the maximum potential loss. This research aims to offer a comprehensive approach to exchange rate risk management, combining financial modeling and the use of derivatives, providing practical tools for informed decision-making in exporting companies.Publicación Relevancia de las criptomonedas como activos financieros dentro de un portafolio diversificado con activos financieros tradicionales utilizando el modelo de Markowitz(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Herrera Cruz, Andrés Felipe; Cardona Llano, Juan FelipeThis study evaluates the relevance of including cryptocurrencies in diversified portfolios of traditional financial assets using the Markowitz Model. The research investigates whether cryptocurrencies improve portfolio diversification and reduce risk. Historical price data for cryptocurrencies and traditional assets (2018-2024) were analyzed using a quantitative approach, applying efficient frontier simulations in Excel and Python. The results show that while cryptocurrencies exhibit high volatility, their low correlation with traditional assets expands the efficient frontier, increasing expected returns without significantly raising overall portfolio volatility. It concludes that cryptocurrencies are a viable component to enhance diversification, particularly during periods of economic growth, though they require active management to mitigate inherent risks. This provides new insights into modern portfolio theory in dynamic markets.Publicación Metodología para valorar una Fintech : el caso de una startup de arbitraje de criptoactivos(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Vélez Romero, Luis David; Mosquera Alcázar, Edwin Gildardo; Gaitán Riaño, Sandra ConstanzaÍtem Estrategias de financiamiento para mejorar la estabilidad financiera y la capacidad de crecimiento de LOGTRANS S.A.S.(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Gutiérrez Restrepo, Alejandro; Sánchez Ribero, Gustavo AlbertoIn the current thesis, financing strategies are identified and developed to improve the financial stability and growth capacity of LOGTRANS S.A.S. The research addresses the problem of limited accessibility to adequate sources of financing, which affects the performance and expansion of the company. To address this problem, historical financial data of LOGTRANS S.A.S, the analysis of financial ratios and how its strategies impact the company in the short and long term will be used. The methodology includes a quantitative approach through financial analysis models. Look for solutions that include a combination of internal and external financing, optimization of the capital structure and the implementation of sustainable financial practices. These solutions have the potential to strengthen the financial stability of LOGTRANS S.A.S. and facilitate its long-term growth.Ítem Predicción de insolvencia empresarial en el sector agropecuario en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Arias Gulfo, Daniela Alejandra; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaAccording to the World Bank, in the period 2020-2022, the agricultural sector in Colombia had a GDP growth of 7.5 to 8.9%. Due to its key contribution to the economy and its impact on job creation and exports, if agricultural companies go bankrupt, there would be a significant negative impact that would affect the livelihood of millions of families, increasing rural poverty and weakening the country´s economic stability. This research aims to analyze the financial information reported by 40 companies in the agricultural sector to Colombia´s Superintendencia de Sociedades in the aforementioned period, in order to predict their insolvency through a multivariate regression statistical model, using variables of financial indicator type such as Current ratio, Debt ratio, Debt to equity ratio, Working capital and Financial leverage ratio; and qualitative variables such as Domicile, IFRS group, Corporate type and time in the market.