ÍtemEstimación del flujo de caja en riesgo de un proyecto minero de cobre con base en el modelamiento del precio bajo métodos estocásticos(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Barros Suárez, Álvaro Rafael; Peña Higuavita, Germán Adolfo ÍtemDiseño de un modelo financiero Proptech en Colombia, para facilitar el acceso a la inversión en activos inmobiliarios a través de la tokenización(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Córdoba Zapata, Alexis; Vélez Mesa, Juan Esteban; Botero Ramírez, Juan CarlosThe main goal of the “Design of a Proptech financial model in Colombia, to facilitate access to investment in real estate assets through tokenization” is to design a financial model that facilitates access to investment in real estate assets for small and medium investors through tokenization. The authors try to introduce the reader to the world of tokenization applied to the Colombian real estate sector, a concept that currently does not have developed technical evidence, beyond business visions. The target population will be delimited, identifying the main inputs required in the development of the research, selecting the different financial models applicable in Colombia for investments in real estate assets. In accordance with the above, it is intended to effectively design a model, to facilitate access to investment in real estate assets through tokenization, based on the analysis of the legal, technological, operational, market and feasibility. financial of the selected model. ÍtemPredicción del precio de transacción sobre el tipo de cambio XAU-USD (oro) para el mercado de contado del commodittie a corto plazo(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Cardona Restrepo, Jorge Esteban; Castilla Rueda, Rafael Andrés; Almonacid Hurtado, Paula María ÍtemEvaluación comparativa de un portafolio de inversión óptimo mediante el modelo de Markowitz con acciones listadas en el Mercado Global Colombiano y sus pares en Estados Unidos(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Díez Peláez, Sebastián; Cardona Llano, Juan FelipeThis study focuses on the construction and comparison of two portfolios that include the same stocks in both the Colombian Global Market (Mercado Global Colombiano, MGC) and the U.S. market (Mercado estadounidense, ME) during the period 2018-2022 using the Markowitz model. The main objective is to measure the generation of alpha with respect to the portfolio invested directly in the United States. The analysis focused on the comparison of profitability and volatility between both portfolios, for which two types of simulations were carried out: i) considering each year as a single period; and ii) covering a continuous period of five years. The results reveal that the MGC portfolio consistently outperformed its counterpart in terms of profitability, but not in risk. The research showed a challenge related to price dynamics in the MGC, where the value of shares remains constant for successive days, followed by sudden changes that can alter the calculation of simulations and statistics. The study provides valuable insights into the comparative performance of two different markets and highlights the opportunities generated by evaluating portfolios in international terms. Likewise, it proposes topics for future research, particularly addressing the characteristics of the MGC that influence the profitability of consolidated portfolios in said market. ÍtemDeterminantes de la distribución de dividendos en las empresas pymes en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Hincapié Galeano, Kelvi Danilo; Saravia Matus, Jimmy AugustinThis study analyzes the variables that have a direct relationship with the dividend distribution policy in small and medium-sized companies in Colombia, understood as legal entities, using descriptive statistics techniques and econometric analysis techniques such as censored regression models (Tobit model). The econometric model allows identifying the positive and/or negative relationship between the financial ratios analyzed and the distribution of dividends delivered by the company in the period under study. ÍtemOptimización de la estructura de capital de las empresas PYMES de seguridad electrónica en Colombia, una visión de sostenibilidad financiera(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Higuita Varela, Sara Isabel; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaPYMES in Colombia represent 90 percent of the companies in the country, according to reports from the Ministry of Labor (Mintrabajo, 2019). Among these, those belonging to the electronic security sector are in an exponential growth and need to have the necessary tools to seek financial sustainability. Thus, with this work, we seek to develop a model of financial analysis of optimal capital structure that allows to help with the achievement of this objective. For this purpose, a selection of the most representative companies in the electronic security market in Colombia is taken as a reference and their financial information is compared in order to find the appropriate data to evaluate the model. ÍtemFondeo alternativo para el financiamiento de grandes productores agroindustriales en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Santamaría Vásquez, Isabella; Álvarez Giraldo, Laura Victoria; Mejía Kambourova, David ÍtemMetodología para la gestión del riesgo de liquidez en compañías de servicios BPO(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Gaitán Zuleta, Lady Johanna; Estrada Villamarín, Leyda Andrea; Peña Higuavita, Germán AdolfoThe BPO services sector has shown significant growth in Colombia given the demand from companies abroad that have established service centers in different regions of the country. From a profitability perspective, this growth is an ideal scenario; however, the capital requirements to maintain these operations have generated significant challenges in the liquidity of companies in the sector. Although it is common to have some sources of resources via credit, through this research we aim to design a methodology for BPOs that allows them to sustain market demands without generating any type of financial stress because of poor liquidity management. This work is just one of the first contributions in the study of the subject, considering that there are no good practices for liquidity risk management in the real sector. ÍtemImpacto en el inductor de valor de la empresa EMCALI en un escenario óptimo de pronóstico(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Álvarez Moreno, William Giovanni; Arango Londoño, Carlos Mario ÍtemImpacto en el estado de resultados de una compañía importadora del sector metalmecánico en Colombia ante el uso de diferentes estrategias de cobertura cambiaria(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Botero Gaviria, Andrea; Ossa Salazar, David; Cardona Llano, Juan FelipeThis study presents a retrospective analysis of the use of different financial derivative products and structures to mitigate exchange rate risk, with the objective of quantifying their impact on the financial results of an importing company in the metal-mechanic sector in Colombia. To this end, real and real and historical data of the exchange rate (USD/COP) are taken for the period between 2019 and 2022. At the same time, the purpose of the research is to expose how to obtain a better performance in the financial results from different financial alternatives, which results in the to improvement of the decision-making of the exchange risk management in a globalized market where there are not only many changes, but also high volatility in the exchange rate. In this order of ideas, the strategies that could have had a better performance are described, their value in the financial management of the company under study is demonstrated, and the conclusions and recommendations for those interested in managing this type of exchange rate risk are presented. ÍtemValoración del riesgo de crédito de empresas aplicando métodos analíticos e inteligencia artificial(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Montoya Arias, José Andrés; Támara Ayús, Armando Lenin ÍtemPredicción del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia mediante un enfoque de machine learning(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Villarreal Marimon, Yeison José; Flores San Martín, Luis Armando; Almonacid Hurtado, Paula MaríaIn this research, numerous predictive models are developed, including regression models, VAR models, ARIMA models, ARIMAX models and SARIMAX models, which were further used to estimate and predict the electricity spot price, and therefore obtaining an approximate value for the sale of a kilowatt-hour, a critical input for calculating the revenues in the valuation models of electric power generations projects in Colombia. This was accomplished using the historical records from XM’s databases, analyzing the relationship between the historical spot price for electricity in the frame of time from January 2000 to July 2023, other input variables were also considered such as hydrological contributions, hydrological discharges and hydrological reserves expressed in terms of energy, as well as the potential effects of climatological phenomena like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that occurs in the country. The results of the research indicate that the prices of the kilowatt-hour are affected by the rainy season and specially by the occurrence of the El Niño phenomena, during which prices increase triggering the scarcity price of the system, which can be observed in the years 2015 and 2016. Finally, as a result, all models follow the price behavior trends. The models were subjected to different time horizon tests, finding that the model to be used depends on the time horizon that the investor needs to analyze: VAR models for the short-term, SARIMAX models for the medium-term and multiple regression models for the long-term. ÍtemResponsabilidad social empresarial y el desempeño financiero en las firmas para América Latina : el efecto del género en la junta directiva(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Castillo Rivera, Ingrid Johana; Castillo Lerma, Claudia Ximena; Gómez Toro, Catalina; Gaitán Riaño, Sandra ConstanzaRecent advances in business organizational forms and the importance of corporate social responsibility have changed organizations' approaches to diversity and the inclusion of women on boards of directors. This article examines the literature on women's participation in the labor market (Gasparini et al., 2015) and their participation on boards of directors in Latin America analyze their impact on firms' economic performance. The analysis includes an assessment of the economic behavior of major companies in Colombia, Chile, Mexico, and Peru using statistical clustering models and principal component analysis. Additionally, econometric models are employed to establish a causal relationship between the profile of women in leadership positions and economic performance measured through CSR. Different findings were obtained for each country, emphasizing the significance of women's experience and education in attaining leadership roles in these countries. ÍtemDiseño del sistema integral de gestión de riesgos FOMUNE(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Ayala Quiroz, Jennifer; Zapata Quintero, Gabriela; Medina Arango, Oscar Eduardo ÍtemMetodologías de estimación del valor en riesgo (VaR) : índice Nasdaq compuesto bajo, métodos paramétricos, no paramétricos y de valor extremo(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Abad Gómez, Juan Pablo; Ospina Mejía, Jaime AlbertoValue-at-Risk (VaR) is a measure of market risk that aims to establish the upper limit of possible losses in the value of an asset or portfolio of assets, under a previously defined confidence level. Nowadays there are different approaches to estimate this measure such as parametric methods, non-parametric methods and Extreme Value Theory (EVT). This research does a comparison between estimations made using the Historical Simulation, Variance-Covariance, Extreme Value Theory, and Volatility Adjusted methods. The results obtained show that the Volatility Adjusted VaR model proposed by Hull & White (1998) has the best fit in high-volatility time periods. While EVT VaR shows the best fit on normal time periods for very high confidence levels. ÍtemInversión sostenible, ¿cómo identificar y medir desde lo cuantitativo el impacto de los factores ESG en la valoración de las empresas? Propuesta metodológica para identificar su aporte real desde lo financiero(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Torres Espinal, Nicolás; Rojas Ormaza, Brayan RicardoSustainable investment is understood as the action of carrying out an analysis of ESG factors in a company, with the aim of allocating capital to it based on the opportunities that this allocation of resources can generate in environmental, social, and governance terms, without ignoring the economic contribution of these factors. The interest lies in the fact that these companies, according to the literature, have a higher market value compared to those that do not have ESG. However, these studies do not provide sufficient related evidence on their real contribution to value generation through existing business valuation methods. This paper will focus on quantifying the value generated by ESG in the valuation of companies, proposing a methodology that allows, from the review of the discounted free cash flow, to implement the ESG component, specifically, implementing the existing ESG ratings. ÍtemImpacto de las variables económicas sobre los precios de los fertilizantes en el sector de la caña de azúcar en el Valle del Cauca (Colombia)(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Orduz Balvín, María Alejandra; García Zapata, Estyven; Echeverri Castaño, Cristian AndrésThis study aims to evaluate the impact of economic variables on fertilizer prices in the sugar cane sector in Valle de Cauca (Colombia). The production of sugar cane, which historically has been an important industry for this department, requires a large amount of supplies, and these are mostly imported into the country, so the variation in their prices has a significant impact on the total cost of production. No previous evidence of studies was found for Colombia. Therefore, a bibliographic review was made, in which several theories such as supply and demand were highlighted. The theories were then contrasted with several regression models (multiple, Ridge, Lasso, random forest and panel data), for which information was taken from the Dane through the SIPSA (Price and Supply Information System for the Agricultural Sector), which contains the monthly prices of DAP, KCL, urea and SAM fertilizers. Likewise, the data of the explanatory variables were taken with the same periodicity of the fertilizers. The results of the different models agreed with what was stated in the hypotheses, evidencing a positive effect of the variables WTI oil price, representative market rate, price per ton of imported fertilizers and war, on the variation in the prices of the fertilizers studied, these being the most determining variables in the variation of these prices. ÍtemAnálisis de rendimientos financieros en campañas de crowdfunding como opción de inversión en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Tamayo Jaraba, Anny Greis; Bohórquez Bohórquez, Omar; Vergara Garavito, Judith CeciliaThis research project focuses on the study of crowdfunding campaigns in Colombia as an innovative source of financing during the last decade and its relevance within the context of entrepreneurship and participatory financing, providing access to capital for projects that face difficulties and restrictions. in everything related to the search for financing sources, as well as the regulatory and legal implications and growth prospects. Additionally, it covers aspects related to the historical evolution, crowdfunding models, actors involved and factors that drive or limit the success of the campaigns. One of the most important aspects to highlight is the evaluation of how crowdfunding has impacted the dynamics of the entrepreneurship. Colombian influencing the creation of new companies, innovation and job creation. The main financial risks are analyzed in detail, and the returns that have been generated historically in a given period of time with traditional investments are compared to provide a more detailed view of the benefits and possible threats that investments in Crowdfunding represent. Finally, the research project provides a complete vision of crowdfunding in Colombia, providing solid and complete information to entrepreneurs, investors, regulators and academics regarding the form of collective financing within an emerging context, in this way, promoting innovation and sustainable economic development in the country. ÍtemEstructura de capital óptima para una IPS colombiana considerando escenarios de estrés en el periodo 2023 – 2031(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Herrera Restrepo, Sebastián; Agudelo Corrales, Jonathan; Sánchez Ribero, Gustavo Alberto ÍtemViabilidad financiera de invertir en reducir la carga contaminante en una empresa de servicios públicos domiciliarios : caso de estudio Empresa de Obras Sanitarias de Caldas “EMPOCALDAS S.A E. S. P”.(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Londoño Osorio, Estefanía; Orozco Echeverry, Cesar AugustoAnthropogenic activities produce environmental impacts related to the biota and the abiotic environment; among them, the generation of domestic wastewater. Over time, various strategies have been identified to reduce the pollutant load of the discharges generated in the receiving sources; however, the percentage of wastewater treatment is relatively low in many cases, which indicates that there is a great opportunity for the implementation of Domestic Wastewater Treatment Plants by the Public Service Providers. However, the financial viability of such investment is uncertain, which may generate fear at the time of making financial efforts of this type. In this sense, the research through cost-benefit roject is an opportunity to generate an overview of the financial convenience of investing in the reduction of pollutant loads, something that could stimulate public service providers to implement adequate infrastructure for the treatment of domestic wastewater.