Maestría en Administración Financiera (tesis)
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Ítem Impacto del cambio de ciclo económico sobre la generación de ingresos del Banco X en el periodo 2019-2024 : cómo afrontar momentos de incertidumbre(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Patiño Valencia, Laura; García Ortega , Luisa María; Sánchez Ribero, Gustavo AlbertoÍtem Evaluación de la oportunidad de expansión al mercado europeo de la empresa Freshcolombia International SAS a través del análisis de unit economics(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Sánchez Sarzosa, José Julián; Prieto Toro, Carolina; González Tabares, Carlos EduardoÍtem Effect of the intensity of CO2 emissions on stock returns in companies in the energy sector in Latin America(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Cardona Giraldo, Laura; Restrepo Ochoa, Diana Constanza; Agudelo Ruedo, Diego AlonsoÍtem Evaluación de alternativas en el mercado de capitales colombiano para financiar la expansión al mercado peruano de la compañía Aceites Verdes(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Marín Maya, Laura; Perdomo Londoño, Nicolás; González Tabares, Carlos EduardoÍtem Asegurando la sostenibilidad financiera : implementación de buenas prácticas de gobierno al interior de Jardín Exotics(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Polanía Marín, Santiago; Téllez Falla, Diego FernandoThis work addresses the implementation of corporate governance in Jardín Exotics, an avocado and gulupa export company that has six shareholder. The implementation must be carried out considering the particularities of the agricultural sector and addressing key aspects such as transparency, accountability, generational changes, roles and responsibilities of the shareholders, promoting sustainability, operational and financial efficiency, the latter aimed at the financial sustainability of the company through increasingly competitive and profitable sales prices in Europe. The study seeks to strengthen strategic decision making and improve the management of the company's management positions through group interviews, analysis of cases that occurred in the past and application of expert theories that can be applicable to the company and that allow for correct implementation of corporate governance.Ítem Rediseño del modelo de gestión financiera para las empresas de servicios del sector oil & gas en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Mesa Roa, Nestor David; Sánchez Ribero, Gustavo AlbertoThe service companies in the oil and gas sector (O&G) in Colombia, the object of this research, are small and medium-sized organizations that provide services such as rental and sale of tools, work on wells or facilities for their clients, and in many cases they only have a single service line, although eventually they can have up to two or three. Commonly, the managers are its founders, and have a human capital of between five and no more than one hundred employees, mostly operational, which is why they usually outsource the areas that are not the core of the business such as accounting, the legal department or human resources. This type of company is characterized by having decision makers with technical strengths at the core of their particular business, although it also shows deficiencies in the financial structure as a basis for decision making, especially when evaluating its position in the market and its medium-term growth is analyzed. The importance of understanding their financial structure beyond the accounting balance sheet becomes more relevant in times of crisis in the sector, because, when they occur, managers find finances without the robustness to cope with them or even take advantage of them. Therefore, the model proposed in this research proposes an analysis of the P&L and cash flow reorganized from the management of service companies in the O&G sector, projecting operational and financial KPIs that allow identifying the strengths, weaknesses and relevant points in the operational structure of a selected company in particular. Additionally, the research presents a comparison of the sensitivity of those KPIs with macroeconomic and industry variables that allow to understand the exposure that the said company has to these changes. At the end, general recommendations are exposed that can be understood as a general guide for decision-making in financial management for the O&G companies in general, and the selected company in particular.Ítem Estructuración de un modelo de tarifación para productos de financiación en una compañía asociada a la industria aseguradora(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Arango Franco, Mariana; Vélez Lopera, Felipe; Cardona Llano, Juan FelipeÍtem Valoración óptima de riesgos en proyectos de asociación público-privada (APP) de infraestructura vial en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Ortiz Salgado, Miguel Ángel; Toro Acuña, Guillermo; Grajales Bedoya, Duván DaríoPublic-private partnership (PPP) projects have been used by different countries as a mechanism to attract private investment in the development of infrastructure projects, alleviating the need to have considerable sums of public money available in the short term for their execution. and thus strengthening their economies and their competitiveness against other nations. Colombia has not been the exception, and to this end it launched the Fourth generation of concessions Program in 2012 (Colombia, Agencia Nacional de Infraestructura, ANI, 2014). Although a current review of the program shows that an appreciable number of the projects have entered their operational phase successfully, the State´s efforts in compensating for assessable risks have been significant, to the point that a large part of the public resources of the investment made available annually for the PPP sector is allocated to risk coverage and not to the financing of new projects. This study describes and analyzes the behavior of assessable risks in the projects of the Fourth generation of concessions program (Colombia, ANI, 2014), its impact on the Contingency Fund of State Entities and the country´s medium-term fiscal framework, and proposes improvements to the current methodology for valuing contingent obligations in infrastructure projects, so that the Contingency Fund of State Entities of PPPs is made more flexible, the financing of new short-term infrastructure projects is possible, and the long-term sustainability of the concession model is guaranteed as a mechanism for economic strengthening and social equity. Keywords: Public-private partnerships (PPP), infrastructure project financing, infrastructure risk management, road or highway concessions, contingencies.Ítem Variables estratégicas para el acceso al financiamiento de las micro y pequeñas empresas del sector del comercio(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Ávila Bautista , Catalina; Mesa Pardo , Daniela; Bruckner Borrero, Clara EugeniaThe purpose of this research project is to identify the variables that affect and impact micro and small companies in the commerce sector in Colombia, as they upset their financial viability, preventing access to the financial sector, given their probability of non-compliance. For this aim, financial information for 2022 was collected from 1,158 companies, in which the financial indicators of liquidity, debt, solvency and activity were considered. Additionally, factors such as number of employees, time of incorporation and city of operation were considered, and with the information collected, the logit econometric model was applied, which made it possible to identify the variables that influence the generation of a negative operating margin. It was concluded that the age of establishment, accounts receivable and the leverage indicator are determinants to predict the probabilities of default.Ítem Predicción del precio del oro en el mercado spot y el tipo de cambio USD–COP para la optimización del rango de cobertura en derivados de las compañías exportadoras del sector minero(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Gallego Panesso, Cristian Alexander; Almonacid Hurtado, Paula MaríaThis study addresses the implementation of various time series regression and machine learning models, such as: ARIMA, ARIMAX, SARIMA and Random Forests with the objective of accurately predicting the price of gold in the spot market and the USD–COP exchange rate. Precision in these predictions is crucial for export companies in the mining sector, as it allows them to establish optimal coverage ranges in the use of financial derivatives. Throughout the study, different machine learning algorithms were evaluated and compared, selecting those that provided the most accurate and consistent results. The findings offer a valuable tool for financial risk management and strategic decision making in the context of gold price volatility and exchange rate fluctuations. At the end of the study, it is indicated that the ARIMAX Rolling Forecast model applied in a parameterization (1,1,0) was the most accurate and consistent model over time for the price forecasts of both assets.Ítem Determinantes de la volatilidad del precio interno del café en el mercado colombiano entre los años 2015 y 2022(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Chávez Pinzón , Laura María; Pardo Calderón, Lina María; Cruz Castañeda, VivianColombia is a country recognized worldwide for its agricultural products, especially for its coffee. Ninety-six percent of the coffee producers are small farmers that are exposed daily to the fluctuation of prices in the international market and, in many occasions, this dependence does not cover their production costs, encouraging the exit or little participation of the producers in the coffee industry. The main variables that influence the behavior of internal coffee prices are: the price of the C contract, the quality premium and the exchange rate. In this study a quantile regression of the returns of internal coffee prices as a function of the conditional volatility of the returns of the C Contract and the TRM, between the years 2015 and 2022, using ARMA-GARCH models, was carried out. The most impactful results show that a unit increase in the conditional volatility of the TRM returns at the 0.95 quantile generates an increase in domestic coffee returns by 0.97% and that a unit increase in the conditional volatility of C contracts generates an increase of 0.31% in the returns of domestic coffee prices. This study offers valuable insights that can contribute to improve the resilience and sustainability of the Colombian coffee industry. Furthermore, by identifying the factors that influence domestic coffee prices, this study lays the foundation for future research and policies aimed at mitigating volatility and promoting more equitable and stable conditions for coffee producers in the country.Ítem Aplicación de opciones reales en una compañía pyme del sector de oil & gas en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Suárez Alfonso, Luz Stella; Vanegas Barragán, Jesús Alfredo; Rojas Ormaza, Brayan RicardoÍtem Diseño y evaluación de un score de riesgo crediticio. Evidencia para una empresa comercializadora en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Matiz Ruiz , John Jairo; Cruz Castañeda, Vivian; Álvarez, PilarÍtem ¿CFEN, indicador de impacto en la cartera hipotecaria en Colombia?(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Alonso Piñeros, Jenniffer; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaThe focal aim of this work is to measure the impact of integrating CFEN indicator on mortgage portfolio in Colombia during application period (2020-2024), through an econometrical model made for Davivienda bank in Colombia, by which is demonstrated the relationship between economic variables (Inflation, Monetary Policy Rate, GDP, Passive Deposit Rates and NSFR) and the accomplishment of above-mentioned indicator. This document demonstrates that, after pandemia, externalities influence the mortgage portfolio dynamism as well as mortgage VIS and not VIS. On the other hand, is concluded that increases on funding rates as consequence of CFEN implementation, are negative related with the comportment of disbursements within the mortgage portfolio over the period assessed for Davivienda Bank, as evaluated in this document.Ítem Metodología para la valoración de impactos financieros sobre compañías de generación hidroeléctrica mediante la estimación de los precios del mercado energético colombiano a través de un sistema de redes neuronales(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Mejía Melguizo, Juan Camilo; Cardona Llano, Juan FelipeThis degree work proposes the creation of a model to financially evaluate the impact on organizations that concentrate their productive activities in hydroelectric power plant projects in Colombia with an installed capacity of less than 20 megawatts, using a neural network system to predict energy prices in the country´s market. The model integrates relevant macroeconomic and climatic variables that affect the volatility of the asset value, and are evaluated through backtesting to identify the optimal alternative and compare them with other predictive tools under the recurrent neural network methodology. The selected model provides an analytical tool for investors and regulators, considering the dynamics of the energy market and the main factors that influence electric energy prices.Ítem Modelos de valoración de activos intangibles adecuados a las condiciones de las medianas y pequeñas empresas en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Castro Garzón, César Ricardo; Sánchez Ribero, Gustavo AlbertoThis work addresses the issue of the valuation of intangible assets for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in Colombia (SMEs). In emerging economies, the same as Colombian Economy, there are many restrictions and limitations of information, difficulties in making market comparisons and lack of development of the Capital markets, which mean that most of the proposed methods for valuation of intangible assets cannot be applied in an efficient manner, basis on an objective, verifiable and public Corporate Financial information. Within the approach that was used to develop this study, those methods whose information and valuation needs did not depend on subjective evaluations, detailed and privileged information of the enterprises and financial indexes with tiny local development were selected. Those methods were selected within the great taxonomy of intangible valuation methods that exist and, that would allow not only to value the companies themselves, but also within the economic sector where they are developed. All this on an average annual basis of information of more than 16,800 SMEs in Colombia for the years 2020 to 2023. Finally, it is important to mention that there is no single method for the valuation of intangible assets (IA), undoubtedly valid for any company and for all circumstances. The contribution of this work allows an acceptable approach adjusted to the conditions of SMEs in Colombia, for the valuation of these assets.Ítem Riesgo de contagio en el mercado interbancario colombiano ante choques de liquidez. Un estudio de redes(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Rodríguez Arango, Eliana Catalina; Peña Higuavita, Germán AdolfoTheoretically, a financial system that is highly concentrated due to the level of interbank transactions carried out by a group of agents is more sensitive to the so-called “contagion risk”, given that the distribution of liquidity will be less efficient. From this situation arises the purpose of this research: analyze the structure of the interbank market in Colombia and determine the risk of contagion in the event of liquidity shocks. For this purpose, by applying graph theory and using Graph Machine Learning, based on overnight interbank transactions performed by 28 commercial banks between January 2018 and December 2019, and between January 2021 and December 2022, it is expected to determine how concentrated the Colombian interbank market is and its resilience in stress periods.Ítem Impacto de variables económicas en la colocación de crédito de libre inversión de los bancos : un caso aplicado a un banco colombiano(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Díez Ochoa, Santiago; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaÍtem Gestión financiera en el sector manufacturero colombiano en tiempos de crisis económicas(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Santamaría Chica, Daniel; Puerta Quintero, Gustavo; Arias Sánchez, Juan ManuelAn economic crisis refers to a period of decline and difficulties in the economic activity of a country or even at a global level presenting contractions in the economy, such as: production, employment, investment and consumption. Its origin can be due to both internal and external factors, the most common causes being: structural imbalances, financial crises, economic cycles and external factors. Thus, financial management plays an especially important role within the economy of companies since its objective is to face the unforeseen events that arise during the crisis and to be prepared for future situations in the environment. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to create a correlational model that allows identifying the strategies used by companies in the manufacturing sector, under conditions of high uncertainty such as the COVID-19 crisis, and to define which strategies had the greatest weight among the companies that managed to excel during this crisis and to conclude whether decisions could have been made that led to a more optimal result.Ítem ¿Cuál es el mejor instrumento de financiación para la compañía Contacto Textil S.A.S. que garantice la supervivencia de la compañía en el tiempo?(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Gómez Gómez, Luis Diego; Vargas Echeverry, Manuela; Correa Lafaurie, Luisa Fernanda