Maestría en Administración Financiera (tesis)
URI permanente para esta colección
Examinar
Envíos recientes
Publicación Predicción de la cartera vencida de los créditos de consumo en los bancos colombianos a partir de variables macroeconómicas(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-06-24) Hincapie Clavijo, Diana Carolina; Ramírez Cañaveral, Juan Esteban; Ospina Mejía, Jaime AlbertoNon-performing consumer loans represent a critical source of vulnerability for the Colombian banking system, especially in contexts of economic slowdown and rising unemployment. This research seeks to determine how to predict their behavior based on relevant macroeconomic variables. To this end, it adopted a quantitative explanatory-predictive approach by estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using monthly secondary data from official public sources. To capture the dynamic interrelationships and lagged effects on portfolio quality, the economic activity indicator and the unemployment rate were incorporated as variables. The results are expected to identify early patterns of credit deterioration and provide technical tools to strengthen early warning systems, credit risk management, and prudential decision-making in the Colombian financial sector.Publicación Diseño de estrategias de cobertura cambiaria mediante instrumentos financieros para la mitigación del riesgo cambiario. Caso Integrated Corporate Management S. A. S.(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-06-26) Quiñones Ardila, Nathalia Andrea; Yepes Holguín, Melisa; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaThis case study analyzes the foreign exchange exposure of Integrated Corporate Management S.A.S., a Colombian company established in 2010 whose business activity is payroll management for employees providing services to companies located in the United States. Its business model generates a mismatch between revenues in US dollars (USD) and expenses in Colombian pesos (COP), as it remains permanently exposed to exchange rate volatility. Through a case study design, the research constructs the company's foreign exchange risk map, quantifies its exposure through historical analysis of the COP/USD exchange rate (TRM) for the period 2021-2024, and calculates historical volatility and parametric Value at Risk (VaR). Subsequently, the hedging instruments available in the Colombian market are evaluated, and the effectiveness of the designed strategies is analyzed using foreign exchange stress scenarios. The results reveal that, in 2025, the company presented an annualized TRM volatility of 11.48% and a monthly VaR at 95% confidence of COP 5,613,599 on a net monthly exposure of COP 102,975,422. The evaluation determined that the forward contract is the most favorable instrument, and the analysis of seven stress scenarios confirms that hedging 80% of the monthly exposure (USD 20,235) reduces operating volatility by more than 85% in adverse scenarios, mitigating negative results.Publicación Estrategias de diversificación y adaptación de los ingresos en las instituciones de educación superior (IES). Un análisis de la sostenibilidad financiera en la Universidad de San Buenaventura Cali (2020-2025)(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-06-11) Rivera Caicedo, Yady Alexandra; Usuga Rodríguez, Steven Lohengrin; Durango Gutierrez, María PatriciaPublicación Impacto de los criterios ESG en el desempeño financiero de las empresas emisoras de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (2012-2024)(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) López Roa, Juan Guillermo; López Osorio, María Alejandra; Yepes Raigosa, David AlejandroThis research analyzes the impact of adopting environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria on the financial performance of companies listed on the Colombian Stock Exchange (Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, BVC) during the period 2012-2024. To this end, Tobin's Q (Q) and the ratio between market price and book value (ProB) were used as proxies for financial performance. The methodological approach was quantitative and correlational, and econometric models estimated using generalized least squares (GLS) were applied. The sample included 16 companies with available ESG information, extracted from the Refinitiv database. Models were estimated for the entire period and a recent sub-period (2019-2024) to assess the temporal robustness of the results. The findings show that aggregate ESG performance does not exhibit a statistically significant relationship with financial performance indicators. The component analysis reveals a statistically significant negative relationship between the environmental pillar (E) and Tobin's Q. And the social (S) and governance (G) pillars show no significant effects. Overall, the results indicate that, in the Colombian market, ESG criteria have not yet been systematically incorporated into the financial performance of the stock market.Publicación Gestión financiera y competitividad en el sector textil-moda en Colombia. Un análisis desde los indicadores de rentabilidad empresarial (2016-2024)(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-29) Hernández Orive, Luis Rodolfo; Yepes Raigosa, David AlejandroThis research analyzes the internal and external factors that determined the financial performance of companies in the Colombian textile and fashion sector during the period 2016–2024. A quantitative approach was used, employing descriptive and econometric methods and multiple linear regression models (OLS, ordinary least squares) based on corporate financial information and macroeconomic variables. The results show that profitability, measured through ROA (return on assets) and ROE (return on equity), was influenced by internal variables such as operating margin, asset turnover, sales growth, leverage, and working capital management, as well as by external factors such as inflation, devaluation, and consumption. The study concludes that financial performance depended on the interaction between financial management, operational efficiency, and the economic environment, which guided strategic decision-making in companies within the sector.Publicación Las estructuras de comisiones de los fondos de capital privado destruyen valor para el inversionista : evidencia empírica del caso colombiano(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-30) Diaz Molano, Diego Armando; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaPublicación Determinantes de la solvencia bancaria en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-30) Martínez Domínguez, Eliana Vianeth; Sotelo Ortiz, Alba Mireya; Ospina Mejia, Jaime Alberto; NABank solvency is one of the main indicators of financial stability and represents the ability of banking entities to absorb losses arising from the risks inherent in their financial intermediation activity. In emerging economies like Colombia, solvency acquires special relevance due to the sensitivity of the financial system to macroeconomic shocks and changes in monetary conditions. In this context, the present research aims to analyze the effect of internal and macroeconomic variables on the banking solvency of the four (4) most representative private banks in the microcredit sector in Colombia within the framework of Basel III implementation. Microcredit banks have differentiated characteristics compared to traditional banking, since they serve populations with greater economic vulnerability, which exposes them to higher credit risk and volatility in their capital indicators. For the development of the study, a quantitative approach with an explanatory scope and a panel data econometric design is proposed. The dependent variable used is the banking solvency indicator, measured based on the ratio between technical equity and risk-weighted assets, operational risk, and market risk. The macroeconomic variables considered correspond to the Economic Monitoring Index (ISE), inflation, and the monetary policy rate (TPM), while the internal variables include return on assets (ROA) and the overdue portfolio index (ICV).Publicación Evaluación de la viabilidad financiera del proyecto Ágora–Corferias de Plataforma AV y su impacto en la generación de valor en el período de ejecución(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-06) Mellizo Delgado, Fabián; Becerra Ramírez, Luis Ricardo; Herrera Echeverri, Hernán HumbertoPublicación Interacción entre las políticas de los precios de transferencia y las estrategias de cobertura : efectos conjuntos sobre el riesgo cambiario y la volatilidad del flujo de caja en multinacionales en economías emergentes(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-06) Pérez Quintana, Yuliana Andrea; Támara Ayús, Armando LeninPublicación Relación entre el índice de cartera vencida (ICV) de consumo y variables macroeconómicas e internas en bancos colombianos : un análisis pre y post de la pandemia de la Covid-19(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-21) Mazorra Castillo, Wilson; Arboleda Daza, Leo Alejandro; Rojas Hormaza, BrayanThis research examines the relationship between the non-performing loan ratio (NPL ratio) of consumer loans and its macroeconomic and institutional determinants in the Colombian banking system. A balanced panel of 23 financial institutions with monthly data from January 2016 to October 2025 was used to compare the dynamics of credit risk before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The methodology combines a fixed-effects model, selected using the Hausman test, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for panel data. The former controls for unobserved heterogeneity among institutions, while the latter assesses the system's response to different shocks and the temporal persistence of their effects. The results indicate that the NPL ratio responds significantly to the unemployment rate and the economic tracking index (EEI), with greater sensitivity in the post-pandemic period, and that return on assets (ROA) and liquidity influence the stability of consumer loans. Taken together, the evidence suggests that the pandemic altered the sensitivity of credit risk and increased the persistence of shocks on the Colombian banking system, with implications for risk management and macro-prudential supervision.Publicación Optimización del calendario de pagos con inteligencia artificial (IA) en entornos inflacionarios. Un caso aplicado en el sector cementero argentino(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-15) Heredia Cujia, Moisés David; Betancur Sanjuan, María Alejandra; Támara Ayús, Armando LeninPublicación Impacto financiero de las prácticas ASG en una empresa del sector restaurantero en Colombia. Evidencia sobre su eficiencia operativa y su estructura financiera(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-18) Patiño González, Mabeli Dayana; Mejía Jaramillo, AlejandroThis research analyzes the financial impact of integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices in a Colombian restaurant company and its relationship to operational efficiency and financial structure. The research was conducted using an applied approach, utilizing company's financial and operational data for the period 2021-2025, as well as documentation related to the ESG practices it implemented. The analysis included an evaluation of financial indicators, a comparative sector analysis, and the development of financial scenarios associated with the estimated operational impact of ESG practices on the company's cost structure and Ebitda. Practices related to waste management, occupational health and safety, operational control, and the strengthening of administrative processes were also identified. The results show differences in operational efficiency indicators, financial margins, and cost structure among the comparative scenarios analyzed. This research contributes to the analysis of the relationship between ESG practices, financial performance, and operational sustainability within the restaurant sector.Publicación Evaluación del potencial de generación de valor de un modelo de negocio tipo e-commerce marketplace en el mercado de medicamentos oncológicos en Colombia, bajo diferentes escenarios de penetración de mercado(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-21) Velásquez Pérez, Miguel; Uribe Bernal, Gabriel JaimeThis study served the purpose of evaluating the capacity a hypothetical business model, surrounding an e-commerce marketplace platform in the Colombian market, has of creating value for shareholders and investors. This model is based on the principle of fomenting competitiveness and increasing the availability of oncological drugs in the market. To analyze the model’s value-creating capabilities, it was first structured financially, by creating assumptions relating to costs and modeling the demand and revenue statistically. Then, the model’s Income Statement and Cash Flow was projected for a five-year time period, under three different scenarios of market penetration. Then, the Weighted Average Cost of Capital [WACC] was calculated, as well as the model’s Present Value of Operations. This study has helped understand the impact the high Days Sales Outstanding figures have on the pharmaceutical market in Colombia, and it also exposes the growth this market has been experiencing.Publicación La creación del holding financiero Cibest : implicaciones estratégicas, jurídicas y de gobernanza en la transformación del grupo Bancolombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-25) Colorado Ávila, Sara Milena; Weber Fernández, Kilder; Téllez Falla, Diego Fernando; Herrera Echeverri, Hernán HumbertoThis research delves into the structural transformation process experienced by the Bancolombia Group—a significant change—through the formation of Cibest, a financial holding company whose implementation began toward the end of 2025. The study aimed to examine (using a qualitative, single-case methodological approach, complemented by quantitative elements) the strategic, regulatory, and financial factors that drove this corporate decision, while also evaluating its impact on aspects such as corporate governance, capital management, and positioning within the sector. The findings show that this transformation is fundamentally driven by five major strategic factors: the necessary functional separation between traditional banking responsibilities and those of the parent company; the strengthening of corporate flexibility (a key aspect in the current context); a more efficient allocation of available capital; the pursuit of alignment with international standards; and strategic preparation for future challenges. It is worth noting that the Colombian regulatory framework—particularly Law 1870 of 2017—emerged as a critically important driving factor, providing structural incentives that favored the adoption of holding architectures. The empirical evidence gathered (although preliminary, it is worth clarifying) shows tangible improvements in operating efficiency (+0.4 percentage points), profitability (ROE up +0.3pp), and market valuation (P/BV registering +6.3%), while cumulative abnormal returns reached +15.2%. The international benchmarking exercise—conducted to contextualize these results—positions the transformation favorably compared to similar regional experiences, both in terms of implementation speed (10 versus 18 months on average) and shareholding preservation (100% versus 96.5% regional average). It is therefore concluded that the transformation analyzed constitutes a solidly founded strategic decision—a significant aspect in the financial sector—that establishes significant precedents for future restructurings in the Latin American financial sphere, while validating the effectiveness of the Colombian regulatory framework and demonstrating the materialization (albeit partial) of those benefits that theory anticipated.Publicación Modelo financiero y análisis de determinantes de costos para la Vivienda de Interés Social (VIS) en Colombia : una propuesta de optimización y política(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-23) Chalarca Morales, Miguel Ángel; Muñoz Taborda, Luisa Fernanda; Herrera Echeverri, Hernán HumbertoPublicación Modelos predictivos del retorno del precio del oro mediante machine learning y simulación estocástica para la estimación del tenor de corte en minería subterránea(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-14) Jaramillo Rojas, Sebastián; Almonacid Hurtado, Paula MaríaPublicación Impacto de la certificación EDGE (Excellence in Design for Greater Efficiencies) en la rentabilidad de proyectos de vivienda en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-08) Ramírez Chinchilla, María Graciela; Soto Sedano, Sandra Jeannethe; Téllez Falla, Diego FernandoThe construction sector in Colombia is a strategic economic pillar, a generator of employment, and a key recipient of investment. This research evaluates the EDGE (Excellence in Design for Greater Efficiencies) certification as a driver of profitability in housing projects, analyzing how the integration of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria transforms capital structure and optimizes cash flows. The research employs a comparative analysis between EDGE-certified projects and traditional construction schemes, quantifying critical variations in capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operating expenditures (OPEX). Additionally, financial modeling is used to compare value creation indicators such as internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and economic value added (EVA). Its purpose is to determine whether the profitability differential of EDGE certification constitutes a structural competitive advantage for strategic decision-making in the Colombian real estate market.Publicación Análisis del impacto de la estructura financiera en la rentabilidad y bancabilidad de proyectos de energía solar fotovoltaica bajo el esquema de project finance(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-12) Acevedo Ochoa, Brayan Sneider; Mora Parra, John Alexander; Sánchez Ribero, Gustavo AlbertoPublicación Aplicación del enfoque Credit VaR en el modelo CreditMetrics de JP Morgan para la medición del riesgo crediticio en portafolios de renta fija en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05) Patiño Castro, Ángela Alejandra; Rodríguez Contreras, Marry; Botero Ramírez, Juan CarlosThis research analyzes the application of a simplified version of JP Morgan's CreditMetrics model for measuring credit risk in fixed-income portfolios in Colombia. Using a portfolio constructed with publicly available information, its performance is evaluated through credit rating migration probabilities and credit spreads. Through the Credit Value at Risk (Credit VaR) framework, the results allow for estimating the distribution of losses and demonstrate that this model is a useful tool for measuring credit risk in portfolios with limited information.Publicación La reforma pensional en Colombia : evaluación de la transición de multifondos a fondos generacionales(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-04) Ocampo Montoya, Yuliana; Suárez Cuadros, Marko Alexander; Verdugo Rodríguez, Germán RobertoThis article evaluates the performance of generational funds with differentiated investment trajectories compared to the current multi-fund scheme of the Colombian pension system, within the framework of the reform introduced by Law 2381 of 2024. To this end, a simulation model was developed in Python that compares four portfolios—Conservative, Moderate, High-Risk, and Generational—for a contributor with a salary equivalent to 3.5 times the monthly minimum wage, using historical data (2015-2025) and thirty-year projections, complemented by Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that the Generational portfolio achieves greater net worth than the Moderate and Conservative funds, while reducing the dispersion of returns by 49% compared to the High-Risk fund. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the retirement age gap between men and women generates a difference in net worth of between 22% and 31%, demonstrating a structural gender disadvantage in the system.