Maestría en Administración Financiera (tesis)
URI permanente para esta colección
Examinar
Envíos recientes
Publicación Estructura de capital, apalancamiento y resiliencia financiera en empresas petroleras durante choques globales(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Chaves Ordóñez, Diego Esteban; Torres Pineda, Ginna Paola; López Álvarez, Juan FernandoThis research analyzes the effect of capital structure on the financial performance of oil companies during three global shocks: the 2008 financial crisis, the 2015-2016 oil price collapse, and the 2020 pandemic. Using a quantitative approach based on panel data, leverage indicators—Debt/Equity and Net Debt/Ebitda—and accounting and market performance metrics—ROA, ROE, Ebitda margin, and market capitalization—are examined for a group of international companies. The results show that higher levels of leverage are associated with lower financial performance, especially in terms of return on assets. Furthermore, the negative impact of debt intensifies during periods of crisis, increasing the financial vulnerability of companies. Overall, the findings suggest that more conservative capital structures contribute to greater resilience in highly volatile energy market environments.Publicación Aplicación Primera Clase - Una ventaja competitiva para el programa de Maestría en Administración Financiera de la Universidad(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-03-10) García Ángel, Daniel; Vargas Pinilla, Carlos David; Herrera Echeverri, Hernán HumbertoDriven by the principle of improving the financial world from its academic foundations, a web application was developed for the Master's Program in Finance Administration at EAFIT University. This application aims to strengthen Professor-student interaction from the beginning of each course. The issue addressed was the limited knowledge with which a professor of an administrative and economic sciences course, such as finance, begins teaching the subject. Given the heterogeneity of academic and professional backgrounds present in a finance course, the need arises to identify the students' prior knowledge in order to adjust the level, pace, and most effective pedagogical strategy. To this end, a preliminary user (student) characterization flow was designed, integrating (i) general and personal questions answered by each student and (ii) a set of specific diagnostic questions for each subject, configured by the professor based on academic diagnostic principles. The application consolidates individual and aggregate group results, facilitating early pedagogical decision-making, such as content prioritization, selection of contextualized examples, and definition of leveling actions. The design was based on learning approaches in higher education and formative assessment, incorporated usability criteria, and followed applied research practices oriented towards the development of a technological artifact. As a result, a functional web application called “Primera Clase” and its implementation guidelines were delivered for its adoption in each subject, with considerations of confidentiality and responsible use of information to support more relevant methodologies from the first class session (Ambrose et al., 2010).Publicación Las opciones reales en la evaluación financiera de una aplicación tecnológica(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Cerón Gómez, Mauricio Javier; Varón Toro, Angie Carolina; Támara Ayus, Armando LeninPublicación Diseño de un modelo de capital para la financiación de proyectos inmobiliarios a través de fondos de inversión privados. Contribución a la reducción del déficit habitacional en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-25) Penagos Velásquez, Simón; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaThe real estate sector in Colombia currently faces challenges related to the housing deficit. Financing for real estate projects has evolved, and real estate investment trusts (REITs) have become an attractive source of financing. Today, buyers seek sustainable and well-located housing, while investors demand attractive returns and efficient risk management. Therefore, designing a financial structure that attracts capital and ensures the long-term viability of projects is crucial. Given the lack of publicly available information on REITs in the country, the objective of this research is to evaluate a private financing model using these instruments for a Colombian construction company, analyzing its impact on its financial results.Publicación Desempeño financiero comparativo entre compañías colombianas de la industria de servicios tecnológicos (TI)(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-02-26) Rivas Regino, Carlos Julio; Támara Ayús, Armando LeninPublicación Análisis, diagnóstico y propuesta de mejora al proceso de gestión de becas de la universidad(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-03-09) Bedoya Velásquez, Jaime Alberto; Herrera Echeverri, Hernán HumbertoPublicación Análisis ex post de la adopción del modelo BIC en el desempeño financiero de las pymes(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-01-30) Olaya Correa, Stefanía; Berrío Zapata, David; Correa García, Jaime AndrésPublicación Valoración financiera de contratos contingentes de energía eléctrica en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Aguilar López, Mateo; Villamil Villamil, Fernando AlonsoPublicación Optimización de portafolios con machine learning : Markowitz con rentabilidad esperada pronosticada con Xgboost y Firefly frente a Markowitz con rentabilidad histórica en el MSI Colcap(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Valencia Flórez, Cristian David; Medina Pineda, Nathanael; Támara Ayús, Armando LeninPublicación Modelos de riesgo crediticio para reducir el riesgo de crédito en la cartera hipotecaria del Banco Unión(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Córdoba Ruiz, Ana Patricia; Rojas Ormaza, Brayan RicardoBanco Unión’s mortgage portfolio has increased its exposure to risk as a result of post-pandemic economic uncertainty, evidenced by higher unemployment levels, inflationary pressures, and sustained increases in interest rates. Within this context, the study examines credit risk models designed to enhance the predictive capacity of portfolio deterioration and to support decision-making in the management of mortgage portfolios. The analysis relies on a historical database provided by Banco Unión, which contains information on performing and impaired mortgage loans. This dataset includes macroeconomic variables, credit-specific attributes, and the sociodemographic and financial characteristics of borrowers. From a methodological perspective, a binary Logit model was estimated to assess the probability of default, analyzing the marginal impact of key factors such as income level, interest rate, macroeconomic conditions, and loan maturity. In addition, a Decision Tree model was implemented on the KNIME platform using AutoML techniques, following sample balancing procedures. The predictive performance of the models was evaluated using standard metrics in the financial sector: the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity (recall), and precision. The results show that the Logit model provides a strong explanatory framework for the determinants of credit risk, while the Decision Tree exhibits greater sensitivity in identifying impaired borrowers while maintaining high levels of precision. By combining both perspectives, Banco Unión gains a more robust analytical tool to anticipate portfolio deterioration, improve customer segmentation, and strengthen credit risk monitoring and mitigation strategies in a changing economic environment, thereby aligning statistical standards with operational and regulatory criteria.Publicación Modelo back office en una compañía de telecomunicaciones con crecimiento escalonado (acelerado). Aspectos financieros clave y administración financiera(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Castillo Zapata, Ricardo Ancizar; Pérez Arbeláez, SebastiánGiven the dynamic and highly competitive nature of startups in the telecommunications sector, it is crucial to establish an administrative and financial system that can sustain the rapid pace of expansion without compromising the operational efficiency or financial stability of the company. This study focuses on identifying the key financial aspects that must be carefully managed in a rapidly growing environment, including cash flow management, cost optimization, budget planning, and financial control. The proposed model seeks to improve efficiency in internal processes, ensure long-term financial sustainability, and enable more informed and strategic decision-making. This work not only offers practical guidance for other telecommunications startups facing similar challenges, but also contributes to the body of knowledge on financial management in fast-growing business environments.Publicación Factoring titularizado como instrumento de diversificación. Impacto en riesgo y retorno en portafolios de acciones colombianas y bonos TES, 2019-2025(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Arenas Gómez, Mateo; Berón Salazar, Julián Andrés; Arenas Gómez, Camilo JoséThis research analyzes the extent to which the inclusion of securitized factoring securities improves the risk-return profile of portfolios composed of stocks listed on the Colombian Stock Exchange and domestic Government bonds (TES). For this purpose, a synthetic factoring security was modeled using cash flows, implied discount rates, and invoice risk levels. Monthly time series of returns for the Colcap index, TES bonds, and the modeled asset were also compiled, and a quantitative analysis was applied, including volatilities, Sharpe ratio, VaR (value at risk), and maximum drawdown. Finally, diversification was evaluated using correlation matrices and capital allocation simulations. The results show that the incorporation of securitized factoring securities reduces volatility and optimizes the risk-return relationship compared to traditional Colombian portfolios based solely on Colombian equities and government bonds.Publicación Modelación de los mercados accionarios de Estados Unidos, Brasil, Chile y Colombia mediante ecuaciones diferenciales estocásticas de segundo orden : un enfoque no paramétrico en contextos de volatilidad política-económica(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Tavera Pérez, Fausto Dario; Pérez Monsalve, Juan PabloThis study models the volatility dynamics of the stock markets of the United States, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia during recent presidential election periods using stochastic processes and nonparametric statistics. The S&P 500, BOVESPA, IPSA, and COLCAP indices are analyzed through second-order stochastic differential equations and Nadaraya-Watson nonparametric estimators to identify differences in volatility structures between developed and emerging markets. Results reveal differentiated patterns of volatility persistence and transmission across markets, with greater intensity during preelectoral periods. These findings are useful for institutional investors and portfolio managers in the design of hedging strategies during electoral cycles, as well as for financial regulators and central banks interested in minimizing market disruptions associated with political uncertainty.Publicación Impact of Colombian financial sector conglomerates from a systemic risk perspective A consolidated supervisory viewpoint(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Rios Acevedo, Mariana; Durango Gutiérrez, María PatriciaPublicación Relación entre los criterios ESG y el desarrollo de mercado de capitales en los países del G8 : un análisis de datos panel(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Vélez Vélez, María Paulina; Jaramillo Guerra, Estiven; Téllez Falla, Diego Fernando; Restrepo Ochoa, Diana ConstanzaThis study examines the relationship between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria and capital market development in G8 countries, using stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP as the primary indicator. Although ESG criteria have gained increasing relevance due to their association with lower risk and enhanced stability, uncertainty persists regarding their actual impact at the country level. The analysis integrates ESG and macroeconomic variables within a panel data framework. The findings indicate that, over the period examined, ESG criteria do not demonstrate a clear or statistically significant relationship with the development of capital markets in the G8 countries, whereas certain macroeconomic variables exhibit greater explanatory power. Furthermore, alternative model specifications employing different dependent variables do not produce robust or consistent results. Overall, the evidence suggests that the effects of ESG factors may operate indirectly or materialize over longer time horizons, highlighting the need for more flexible methodological approaches and extended periods of analysis to better capture their potential influence on financial development.Publicación Modelo de proyecciones financieras a mediano plazo para Prime Meats LLC(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Álvarez Paneso, Valentina Liney; Herrera Echeverri, Hernán HumbertoPublicación Gestión de riesgos financieros y sostenibilidad en concesiones viales en Colombia : un análisis aplicado a un proyecto expuesto a riesgo de tasa de interés y tasa de cambio(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Chiquiza Vergara, Alexandra; Villamil Villamil, Fernando AlonsoThe financial sustainability of road infrastructure projects in Colombia is affected by their exposure to market risks such as interest rate and exchange rate volatility. This research analyzes the effectiveness of using financial derivatives as a hedging strategy against such risks. A 30-year financial model was developed, incorporating sensitivity scenarios based on key reference rates. Structures with and without financial hedging were compared. The data used included historical interest and exchange rates, macroeconomic variables, and real cash flows from concession contracts. Results show that a mixed debt structure (COP and USD) can offer benefits equivalent to fully dollar-denominated debt combined with exchange rate hedging. Furthermore, the use of derivatives helps stabilize key indicators even under adverse conditions. It is concluded that financial hedging improves project viability and strengthens cash flow stability.Publicación Análisis de la mora en créditos educativos universitarios : identificación de patrones y recomendaciones para la mitigación(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Arias Rios, María Eugenia; Gutiérrez Moscoso, CatalinaThis study examines the delinquent portfolio of the internal financing line of a private university in Medellín, aiming to identify patterns associated with default and to estimate the portfolio’s expected loss. Historical data from credits granted between 2022 and 2025 were used, incorporating academic, financial, and socioeconomic variables of students and payment guarantors. The research integrates a descriptive analysis with a predictive model based on logistic regression to estimate the probability of default (PD), exposure at default (EAD), and loss given default (LGD). Results indicate that delinquency is concentrated in specific beneficiary segments and that relevant differences exist across academic levels and credit modalities. The study concludes that ensuring the sustainability of the financing program requires strengthening origination, monitoring, and collection processes through differentiated strategies aligned with the identified risk profiles.Publicación Incidencia de la política monetaria y los indicadores de crecimiento económico sobre el riesgo de liquidez en instituciones financieras de Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Cardona Baquero, Giovanny; Cruz Castañeda, VivianThis research analyzes the impact of changes in monetary policy and economic growth indicators on the Liquidity Risk Index (IRL) of financial institutions in Colombia, considering their implications for banking liquidity and financial stability. A database containing macroeconomic information and financial reports from selected banks for the period March 2020–December 2024 was used. Statistical and econometric techniques, such as multiple regression and vector autoregressive (VAR) models, were applied to examine how macroeconomic indicators affect the liquidity of these institutions. The results show that liquidity risk in Colombia is strongly influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates and inflation, which exert significant effects on the IRL, while the non-performing loan ratio (ICV) reflects the influence of the general economic environment. In contrast, variables such as the fixed-term deposit rate (DTF) and unemployment do not show statistically significant effects. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability to reduce liquidity risk in financial institutions.Publicación Estructura óptima de capital para las empresas del sector de seguridad privada en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Córdoba Avendaño, Diego Fernando; Salas Achinte, Wilson Stiven; Arias Sánchez, Juan ManuelThe private security and surveillance sector in Latin America has experienced significant expansion driven by rising urban crime, changes in state security policies, and regional economic growth. This context generates increasing pressure on governments and private organizations to respond to new threats and a sustained demand for protection services. However, the sector's dynamism coexists with financial challenges stemming from technological transformation, intensified operational risk, and the need to modernize service delivery models. In this scenario, capital structure emerges as a key factor for competitiveness, since an inadequate configuration can affect business valuation, financial sustainability, and the ability to leverage new projects. Therefore, the search for an optimal capital architecture becomes a strategic imperative for companies in the sector. This thesis proposes a methodological framework aimed at evaluating financing alternatives from a comprehensive perspective, incorporating variables such as cost of capital, profitability, and operational risk. The analysis also highlights the importance of indicators such as financial leverage, liquidity, and economic performance as tools for assessing the viability and financial strength of organizations. Overall, the analysis demonstrates that a deep understanding of capital structure is not only necessary to meet the challenges of the environment but also to ensure sound financial decision-making in a sector characterized by its increasing complexity and social relevance.