Maestría en Economía Aplicada (tesis)
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Publicación Más allá de la moda : cómo las exportaciones Long Tail pueden transformar el sector de confección de Antioquia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Sierra Madrid, Felipe; Pérez Restrepo, Camilo AlbertoOver the years, the region of Antioquia has shown consistent innovations in the garment sector. This has transformed the province into an area with a specialized business muscle in the manufacture of specific products within this industry, offering added value. However, Antioquia faces significant challenges in increasing its internationalization and presence in global trade. Therefore, this research conducts a detailed analysis to identify the long tail companies of the Antioquia garment sector. Once identified, we calculate the Export Potential Indicator (EPI) to analyze the tariff lines and destination markets that may be attractive for both companies and the department in future projects. From this, a significant potential for an increase in international trade with Latin American and Asian nations was found, with a significant dependence on the Latin American market. Finally, strategic opportunities and recommendations are provided to strengthen the internal garment market to achieve greater representation globally.Publicación Estrategias de fijación de precios en mercados oligopólicos : bebidas deportivas Colombia 2009-2023(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Uribe Navarro, Jorge Eduardo; Chaparro Cardona, Juan CamiloThis thesis analyzes pricing strategies in the Colombian oligopolistic sports drinks market for the period 2009-2023, focusing on the comparison between observed practices and the theoretical equilibria derived from microeconomic game theory models. Using secondary data and estimates based on seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) systems, the study identifies demand functions and competitive interactions among the main brands in the sector: Gatorade, Sporade and Powerade. The theoretical framework is based on price competition models with product differentiation and best response functions, allowing for the modeling of strategic interactions between firms. The results show that, while the leading brand Gatorade operates close to the theoretical equilibrium, there are relevant deviations in the strategies of challenger brands Sporade and Powerade, which create opportunities for sectoral profitability optimization. Best response matrices and simulation scenarios are presented to illustrate the impact of different pricing policies on market share and profits. Finally, the study discusses the model’s limitations and proposes future research avenues, including the incorporation of additional non-price factors, the temporal dynamics of decision-making, and strategic interactions with retailers.Publicación Disparidades departamentales en innovación : un análisis de los determinantes del crecimiento económico en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Trocha Guzmán, Dairo Armando; Ríos Agudelo, Yohan SebastianPublicación Políticas de competencia para el sector fintech en Colombia : una revisión bibliográfica sobre libre competencia, inclusión financiera y protección al consumidor(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Urán Cardona, Santiago Andrés; García Rendón, John JairoPublicación Impacto del programa de Planeación del Desarrollo Local y Presupuesto Participativo en el desarrollo territorial y la condición de vida de la comuna Seis, Doce de Octubre de Medellín, 2017 - 2023(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Perea Mosquera, Jhonier David; Tobón Zapata, SantiagoCitizen participation is no longer merely an aspiration; it has become a concrete tool for planning and public management in local territories. This thesis analyzes the Local Development Planning and Participatory Budgeting (PDL and PP) program as a mechanism of participatory democracy and an instrument for social investment, governance, and territorial development in comuna Six, Doce de Octubre, Medellín, between 2017 and 2023. Through a mixed methods approach that combines econometric analysis and qualitative exploration, the study examines the extent to which the Participatory Budgeting program influences improvements in the living conditions of the territory. Essentially, this research offers a critical reflection on the scope and limitations of this model of participatory democracy, highlighting its strategic orientation, its alignment with local demands, and its actual capacity to generate well-being within the territory.Publicación Incidencia de factores sociodemográficos en los niveles de conocimiento en salud sexual y reproductiva en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Álvarez Niño, Kevin Orlando; Gil Macias, Miguel Ángel; Cantet, María NataliaPublicación Comportamiento de la distribución salarial de los recién graduados en instituciones de educación superior en Colombia durante el periodo 2016 - 2021(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Medina Erazo, Maiddy Tatiana; Chaparro Cardona, Juan CamiloThis paper performs an analysis on the salary distribution of graduates in Higher Education Institutions in Colombia, who were linked to the labor market one year after obtaining the undergraduate or graduate degree, during the period 2016 - 2021. A descriptive analysis was performed, through the estimation of a simple linear regression and a goodness-of-fit test, with the objective of determining whether the differences between the attachment salaries are statistically significant. Among the main findings, it is highlighted that the salary gap between men and women persists, and that graduates from private universities receive a higher entry salary than graduates from public universities. In terms of levels of education, at the undergraduate level, there is almost equal behavior in the starting salary of graduates in professional technical and technological fields; At the postgraduate level, there is a higher salary for the doctoral level, however, during the study period, this has decreased, leading to a decrease in the existing salary gap with respect to graduates at the master's level. Finally, with respect to educational programs structured by the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED), recent graduates in the field of health and welfare enter the labor market with a higher salary compared to graduates in other programs.Publicación Comportamiento de un mercado al borde de la crisis : futuro a mediano plazo del mercado inmobiliario en Estados Unidos(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Ochoa Espinal, Esteban; Luján Jaramillo, Alejandra MaríaThis study analyzes the dynamics of the real estate market in the state of Florida and its relationship with financing, foreign investment, and housing affordability in the period 2024-2028. Using ARIMA forecasting models and an analysis of economic and financial data, the research assesses sector stability and its potential risks. Three key findings emerge from the results: (1) the relationship between interest rates and housing accessibility, where rising financing costs have reduced purchasing capacity, particularly affecting first-time buyers and middle- to low-income households; (2) the influence of foreign investment, which has contributed to real estate speculation and increased property prices, leading to a reduced supply of affordable housing; and (3) the impact of recent regulatory changes in the sector, particularly in commission structures and rental market interventions, which could alter liquidity and price stability in the coming years. These findings help us understand how economic conditions and regulatory policies influence the evolution of Florida’s real estate market, highlighting the importance of implementing measures that balance housing access with sector stability and mitigate the risks of a medium-term crisis.Publicación Caracterización de la piscicultura y sus implicaciones para el desarrollo sostenible : un estudio de caso en Puerto Boyacá(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Gil Beltrán, Gustavo Adolfo; Contreras Morales, Manuel Alejandro; Cadavid Herrera, José Vicente; OCENSAPublicación Correlación entre las tarifas de energía eléctrica en Colombia y factores económicos como el IPC, IPP y relación entre el consumo de electricidad y el crecimiento económico (2016 – 2023)(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Rojas Valderrama, Robinson; García Rendón, John JairoThis paper analyzes the correlation between electricity tariffs in Colombia and key economic factors such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and economic growth measured through the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the period 2016-2023. The research is based on a quantitative approach employing time series analysis techniques, including stationarity tests, cointegration and error correction (VEC) models, in order to identify patterns of relationship and causality between the variables. The results show that there is a significant relationship between the unit cost of electricity and the price indexes, evidencing a direct impact of inflation on electricity tariffs. It is observed that the behavior of tariffs is mainly influenced by the dynamics of the PPI and CPI, which generates a feedback effect in the Colombian economy, affecting both households and the productive sector. Likewise, a positive correlation between GDP growth and energy consumption was identified, highlighting that the increase in economic activity drives energy demand, which in turn impacts prices.Publicación Análisis de los incentivos salariales asociados a la producción científica y su impacto en la calidad : caso de estudio Universidad del Valle (2019-2023)(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Salazar Villamizar, Carlos Andrés; Puerta Álvarez, Henry DanielThis research analyzes the relationship between the salary incentives established by Decree 1279 of 2002 in Colombia and their impact on the quality of scientific production, using the Universidad del Valle (2019-2023) as a case study. Through a fixed-effects econometric model and complementary statistical techniques, it evaluated how salary increases influence academic publications, using a sample of 478 faculty members and 2,793 publications collected and classified into categories A1, A2, B, and C according to Publindex. The results show a positive and significant correlation between the incentives and publications in high-impact journals (A1 and A2), while publications in lower-impact journals (B and C) present a negative relationship, evidencing an orientation toward quality. Research group leaders and faculty with higher reputations (h-index > 20) concentrate publications in higher categories, with higher salary increases. Adjustments to the incentive system are proposed, such as increasing points for A1 and A2, reducing them for B and C, and integrating metrics like the h-index, to promote scientific excellence, ensure institutional sustainability, and prioritize faculty with a role oriented toward high-quality research.Publicación La violencia contra las mujeres en Medellín : evaluación del programa “Ciudades y espacios seguros para mujeres y niñas”(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Bedoya González, Camila Andrea; Tobón, SantiagoViolence represents high costs for society and affects women to a greater extent. The lack of visibility of the problem, the lack of awareness and good practices in the prevention of sexual harassment, and the various types of violence aggravate the situation. The Women’s Secretariat implemented the program “Safe Cities and Spaces for Women and Girls” to address violence against women, especially sexual crimes. The objective of my study is to evaluate the impact of the intervention “Cities and Safe Spaces for Women and Girls” carried out in the period between 2017 and 2018 in commune 3 (Manrique, Medellín) on the reporting rates of domestic violence and sexual crimes, to determine the effectiveness of the strategy implemented to improve the safety and well-being of women and girls in public spaces. The method I used comprises a quantitative approach employing a technique of impact evaluation called synthetic control. The intervention encourages reporting crimes, possibly because the mechanisms used raise awareness of the problem, reassuring the victims that they feel safe reporting, although the results are imprecise.Publicación Teorías económicas de la justicia. Un ejercicio de análisis económico del derecho aplicado a la distribución de regalías en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Montoya Ángel, Guillermo León; Vélez Villegas, Juan EstebanPublicación Cambio climático, convergencia económica regional y efectos espaciales : nueva evidencia empírica para Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Astudillo Mendoza, Carlos Alberto; Aristizábal Tamayo, Juan ManuelThe study analyzes the effects of climate change on economic growth and conditional regional convergence processes in Colombia over the past decade. Using panel models applied to 32 departments over the 2008-2019 period, climate variables are incorporated, and spatial dependence is modeled to capture both the direct and indirect effects of climate on economic growth and interregional convergence. Three main findings emerge from the results: (1) the interaction between the deviation from departmental average temperature and convergence, with an estimated coefficient between -0.03 and -0.044, suggests that temperature variations have more significantly impacted economic growth in the more developed departments; (2) evidence of nonlinearities in the climate-growth relationship, with an optimal deviation threshold of 0.32 °C from the historical average, beyond which negative effects on growth are observed; and (3) the presence of spatial spillover effects, where climatic variations in one department impact the economic performance of neighboring regions. These findings contribute to understanding how climate change influences regional growth and convergence patterns, highlighting the importance of implementing mitigation and adaptation measures that consider both local effects and regional interdependencies, as well as the critical thresholds identified in this analysis (0.32°C).Publicación Estrategias para la optimizacion de los gastos operativos y maximizar ingresos : caso municipio de Pueblo Nuevo, Cordoba(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Soto Benavides, Germán Darío; Caicedo Esper, Gonzalo FelipeThe municipality of Pueblo Nuevo, Córdoba, faces significant financial challenges, characterized by a growing disparity between operational expenses and generated income. This issue has led to regular fiscal performance and a strong dependence on national transfers, limiting financial autonomy and the municipality's capacity to effectively manage its finances and provide public services. The main objective of this research is to design strategic measures that optimize efficiency in operational expenses and maximize the municipality's own revenues. The main question is: How can the municipality of Pueblo Nuevo optimize its operational expenses and maximize its revenues to improve fiscal performance and reduce dependence on national transfers? The methodology employed includes a descriptive design that statistically analyzes documentary financial and budgetary data of the municipality. The results reveal a significant increase in operational expenses between 2012 and 2022, especially in personnel expenses and procurement of goods and services. In conclusion, it is recommended to establish a clear legal framework and robust control mechanisms to ensure transparency in the management of public resources. Additionally, promoting public-private partnerships and consolidating procurements is suggested to enhance operational efficiency and increase public confidence in local government.Publicación Análisis del efecto esperado en la demanda debido a la potencial implementación de un cobro por congestión y una restricción vehicular basada en variables ambientales. Un caso de estudio para Medellín(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Monterrosa Garcés, Sebastián; Ospina Zapata, Juan Pablo; García Cruz, GustavoPublicación Análisis departamental de los factores productivos y su influencia en los cultivos transitorios en Colombia para el 2022(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) García Guette, David Mauricio; Chacón Indaburo, María Fernanda; Zuluaga Orrego, Juan FernandoThis research determines the main productive factors that influenced the production of transitional crops in the departments of Colombia for 2022. We establish the importance of these to improve the conditions of Colombian agriculture through the prioritization of the most important productive factors in this type of crops, contributing to analytical mechanisms that allow a better articulation of the actors in the territories where transitional crops predominate. The analytical development made it possible to establish through a mixed methodology within which the sequential use of statistical techniques such as the Lasso regression model, Stepwise Regression and Random Forest stands out that access to land and financing were the most significant elements in the production of transitional crops for 2022 with 75.2% 15.4% respectively. The study suggests that these factors be prioritized for the articulation of actors and the prioritization of public goods for productivity and territorial development in the departments of Colombia.Publicación Diseño de un mecanismo alternativo de subasta en mercados oligopólicos para el proceso de negociación de medicamentos de alto costo(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Castrillón Sosa, Fabricio Esteban; Chaparro Cardona, Juan CamiloPublicación Ecuación de salarios del mercado laboral del sector TIC y análisis de su brecha salarial internacional, durante el periodo 2017 - 2023(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Quinchía Vásquez, Eliana María; Chaparro Cardona, Juan CamiloPublicación Transferencias monetarias y acceso a crédito : el caso del programa Ingreso Solidario en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Betancur Téllez, Sebastián; Álvarez Franco, Pilar Beatriz; Cruz Castañeda, Vivian