Documentos de trabajo (working papers)

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https://hdl.handle.net/10784/33510

Los investigadores pertenecientes a la Escuela de Finanzas, Economía y Gobierno publican sus documentos de trabajo. Con la publicación de éstos se pretende apoyar la difusión de investigación económica y financiera de alta calidad realizada dentro de la Escuela de Finanzas, Economía y Gobierno de la Universidad EAFIT. Los documentos se constituyen "en material provisional", se publican con el fin de estimular el debate académico. Están dirigidos a expertos, así, los lectores deben tener conocimiento de la economía y finanzas. Las opiniones y posibles errores son responsabilidad única y exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen a la Escuela de Finanzas, Economía y Gobierno, ni a la Universidad EAFIT.

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Mostrando 1 - 20 de 391

The Cost of Uncertainty
(Universidad EAFIT, 2024-01) Posada, Carlos Esteban; Universidad EAFIT
The traditional and most common view of economists on the issue of (bad) uncertainty and its effects has been one of partial equilibrium. When the topic is approached from a macroeconomic perspective, the most frequent has been the examination of the effects of uncertainty shocks on short-term dynamics with various methods, but mainly with neoKeynesian and statistical (vector autoregressive) models. This document responds to another concern and has two objectives: 1) to reflect on this issue with some instruments of the macroeconomist´s toolbox related to a medium or long-term horizon, and 2) report a ciphering of the social cost of uncertainty in the Colombian case.
Análisis de la formación para el trabajo en Colombia
(Universidad EAFIT, 2024-02) Chaparro Cardona, Juan Camilo; Arteaga Arango, Alejandra; Universidad EAFIT
Este reporte de investigación analiza aspectos de la formación para el trabajo en Colombia en dos capítulos diferentes. El primer capítulo describe las brechas que existen en la efectividad de la formación para el trabajo para generar un calce entre la capacitación de las personas y las ocupaciones que ejercen. Se reportan brechas de género, regionales y por estrato socioeconómico en las tasas de calce de las personas capacitadas. El segundo capítulo analiza la calidad de los catálogos de cualificaciones del Marco Nacional de Cualificaciones (MNC) administrados por el Ministerio del Trabajo, con corte a junio de 2023. Todos los programas de certificación que se ofrezcan dentro del nuevo Subsistema de Formación para el Trabajo del Sistema Nacional de Cualificaciones deben estar basados en una cualificación aprobada e incluida en el MNC. El segundo capítulo hace una síntesis del nuevo Subsistema de Formación para el Trabajo, su relación con el MNC y propone una metodología para medir la calidad de un catálogo de cualificaciones.
Who expects to join criminal gangs and why? Occupational choice among 5,000 teenage boys in Medellín
(Universidad EAFIT, 2024-01) Blattman, Christopher; Rodriguez-Uribe, Arantxa; Tobón, Santiago; University of Chicago; Princeton University; Universidad EAFIT
Across the Americas, criminal gangs are among the largest forced recruiters of children and adolescents into armed groups. What techniques do they use? Which adolescents are most at risk? And what NGO and government interventions can prevent and disrupt this forced recruitment? We are currently running a survey targeting 5,000 13-year-old adolescent males in Medellin’s highest-risk gang recruitment neighborhoods. We will use the survey to assess risk factors associated with recruitment. To mitigate the identification problem concerning the separation of preferences, expectations, and structural barriers, we use rich data on subjective expectations, with direct measures of financial constraints, to estimate a life-cycle model of preferred career path. In this preliminary paper, we describe the model, report preliminary descriptive statistics, and discuss intervention design. By May, we expect to present descriptive statistics on the full sample and report results of survey experiments that will inform our field experimental interventions.
Criminal governance in times of crisis: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in Rio de Janeiro
(Universidad EAFIT, 2024-01) Lessing, Benjamin; Monteiro, Joana; Tobón, Santiago; University of Chicago; Fundacao Getulio Vargas; Universidad EAFIT
In urban peripheries worldwide, and especially in Latin America, criminal groups use coercive power to impose rules on and provide order to civilians. The reasons why gangs govern in particular ways, or at all, are poorly understood. Many charge taxes in exchange for governance provision—suggesting they act as stationary bandits— but some do not. Many control retail drug markets, but some also earn rents from licit goods and services like cooking gas and internet. During the COVID-19 crisis, anecdotes of gangs enforcing lockdowns and providing health-related public goods suggested they seized opportunities to consolidate their authority and perceived legitimacy. We present novel, systematic data on criminal governance practices in Rio de Janeiro, whose gangs are notoriously militarized, persistent, and—usefully, from our perspective—diverse. While many belong to prison-based drug syndicates, others are police-linked groups known as mil´ıcias. We surveyed residents from almost 200 favelas about local gangs’ type, economic and governance activities, taxation, and pandemic response. Contrary to expectations, we find that drug gangs and mil´ıcias alike earn rents from a range of licit products and services, enjoy similarly high levels of perceived legitimacy, and largely avoided involvement in pandemic response. Yet milicias are far more likely to tax, and seldom sell drugs. Our findings suggest that gangs’ core motives are economic rather than political, that they strategically distinguish between direct taxation and extracting monopoly rents from control over utilities.
Variation Index of the Output Gap (VIOG): A New Way of Testing Potential GDP Estimations
(Universidad EAFIT, 2024-04) Pinilla Barrera, Alejandro; Hurtado Rendón, Álvaro; Velásquez Ceballos, Hermilson; Universidad EAFIT
The potential GDP plays a fundamental role in macroeconomic models used by policymakers to make decisions. Its nature as an unobservable variable has led to the proposition of various estimation techniques based on different assumptions about its generating process. This work proposes a methodology to evaluate the different techniques for estimating potential GDP: the Variation Index of Output Gap (V IOG). Inspired by the statistic mean absolute deviation and the work of Darvas, Vadas, et al. (2003), the V IOG measures the average absolute gap derived from a potential GDP estimation technique. Unlike other methodologies that assess the statistical performance of estimation techniques, the V IOG aims to provide a practical response to the subjective dilemma of potential GDP estimation depending on what policymakers seek: more aggressive economic policies, where a greater output gap is permitted, or more conservative ones, which show a smaller output gap. To illustrate this, an application using the Taylor rule is presented. The results suggest that the differences between using different methodologies to estimate potential GDP can be significant, especially in times of crisis, affecting policymakers’ decisionmaking, implying that depending on the technique used, more or less restrictive economic policy decisions may be taken.
Análisis de los logros educativos y la situación laboral de las personas jóvenes de Barranquilla entre 2007 y 2022
(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Chaparro Cardona, Juan Camilo; Caly Amador, Tatiana Isabel; Universidad EAFIT
El objetivo de este documento es brindar un breve diagnóstico de la evolución de la calidad de vida de las personas jóvenes de Barranquilla entre 2007 y 2022, con énfasis en su educación y empleabilidad. Las personas jóvenes enfrentan una fuerte tensión entre el avance en su formación académica y cubrir necesidades económicas personales. Este documento presenta indicadores de calidad y cobertura de la educación secundaria, media y superior; analiza indicadores de la situación laboral de las mujeres y los hombres jóvenes de Barranquilla y evalúa los principales programas de política pública orientados al apoyo de la población joven de la ciudad. En lo que tiene que ver con educación, Barranquilla ha logrado avances importantes en cobertura en educación secundaria y en reducir drásticamente la deserción en secundaria y media durante los años escolares, pero se han agravado los problemas de calidad de la educación media, a la luz de la evidencia encontrada por medio de las pruebas Saber 11. Aún persiste una importante brecha en la tasa de cobertura de educación secundaria y educación media debido a la alta deserción que ocurre entre el grado noveno y el grado décimo. La asistencia a programas de educación superior sufrió drásticamente debido a la crisis económica provocada por la pandemia del COVID-19, pero hubo una rápida recuperación en 2021 y 2022 gracias a la expansión de los programas de doble titulación y al programa Universidad al Barrio. Aun así, Barranquilla y las demás capitales de la región Caribe tienen un rezago en la proporción de mujeres y hombres jóvenes que logran obtener un título universitario, al ser comparadas con otras ciudades de Colombia. El desempleo de las mujeres jóvenes es mucho mayor al desempleo de los hombres jóvenes en la ciudad. Más grave aún, la tasa de desempleo de las mujeres jóvenes de Barranquilla se encuentra en niveles históricamente altos desde el 2020. La probabilidad de que un hombre joven de Barranquilla no estudie ni trabaje alcanza un valor máximo en el rango de edad entre los 18 y los 20 años. Luego, a medida que los hombres superan el umbral de los 20 años, la probabilidad de no estar estudiando ni trabajando disminuye con la edad. Lo que ocurre con las mujeres jóvenes de Barranquilla es muy diferente. Cumplir la mayoría de edad aumenta drásticamente la probabilidad de que una mujer deje de estudiar o deje de trabajar fuera del hogar. Adicionalmente, cuando las mujeres jóvenes envejecen, la probabilidad de no estudiar ni trabajar por fuera del hogar no disminuye, como sí ocurre con los hombres jóvenes. Al respecto, se encontró que la proporción de mujeres de Barranquilla entre 24 y 26 años que no estudió ni trabajó durante 2022 fue 36,8%. En conclusión, las mujeres y los hombres jóvenes de Barranquilla tienen trayectorias educativas y laborales muy diferentes.
Hunting Militias at All Cost: Urban Military Operation and Birth Outcomes
(Universidad EAFIT, 2023-08) Cortés, Darwin; Gómez, Catalina; Posso, Christian; Suárez, Gabriel; Universidad EAFIT
This study examines the impact of the Orion Operation on newborn health out- comes. Previous research has explored the negative effects of conflict on child health, but the specific consequences of state military operations on newborns, especially in urban settings, remain poorly understood. Employing a Difference-in-Differences de- sign and using administrative data from the Colombian Vital Statistics Reports, we assess the effects of the Orion Operation on birth weight, height, and the probability of a high Apgar score. Our analysis reveals a significant reduction in birth weight among infants born in intervention-affected neighborhoods, with concentrated effects observed among married and less educated mothers. We find a decrease in height at birth and a reduction in the probability of having an Apgar score higher than 7, which indicates good health at birth. While direct testing of stress as the primary underlying mecha- nism was unfeasible, our findings suggest that stress might influence birth outcomes. These findings enhance our understanding of the complex impacts of state military operations and underscore the importance of considering the context when assessing their consequences on local communities.
Marijuana on Main Streets? The Story Continues in Colombia. An Endogenous Three-part Mode
(Universidad EAFIT, 2023-06) Ramírez Hassan, Andrés; Gómez Toro, Catalina; Velásquez, Santiago; Tangarife Londoño, Katherin; Universidad EAFIT
Cannabis is the most common illicit drug, and understanding its demand is relevant to analyze the potential implications of its legalization. This paper proposes an endogenous three-part model taking into account incidental truncation and access restrictions to study demand for marijuana in Colombia, and analyze the potential effects of its legalization. Our application suggests that modeling simultaneously access, intensive and extensive margin is relevant, and that selection into access is important for the intensive margin. We find that younger men that have consumed alcohol and cigarettes, living in a neighborhood with drug suppliers, and friends that consume marijuana face higher probability of having access and using this drug. In addition, we find that marijuana is an inelastic good (-0.45 elasticity). Our results are robust to different specifications and definitions. If marijuana were legalized, younger individuals with a medium or low risk perception about marijuana use would increase the probability of use in 3.8 percentage points, from 13.6% to 17.4%. Overall, legalization would increase the probability of consumption in 0.7 p.p. (2.3% to 3.0%). Different price settings suggest that annual tax revenues fluctuate between USD 11.0 million and USD 54.2 million, a potential benchmark is USD 32 million.
Export Market Size Matters: The effect of the market size of export destinations on manufacturing growth
(Universidad EAFIT, 2022-11-09) Goda, Thomas; Sánchez, Santiago; Universidad EAFIT
Literature contends that the manufacturing sector is crucial for economic development, and it is conventional wisdom that exports drive manufacturing growth. However, it has not yet been established empirically whether the market size of export destinations is an important factor to explain diverging regional and sectorial manufacturing growth patterns. This article argues that accessing large external markets reduces transaction costs, increases expectations of economies of scale and fosters capital formation. To test this hypothesis, we construct a novel Relative Export Market Size (REMS) index that measures whether the share of sectoral exports that are destined to large economies in one region is higher than in other regions. Using a PVAR model, we verify the impact of the REMS index on value added, employment and capital accumulation of 129 manufacturing sectors in 23 regions in Colombia during the period 1992-2017. The obtained results show that exporting to larger markets has a positive impact on employment, capital formation and value added per capita of manufacturing sectors at a regional level. This finding indicates that exporting to the largest market of the world helps to develop competitive manufacturing sectors.
Quality of Communications Infrastructure, Local Structural Transformation, and Inequality
(Universidad EAFIT, 2022-10-18)
We analyze the causal impact of improvements in the quality of communication infrastructure on the structural transformation of US counties. Our treatment is the quality of communication infrastructure in a county, measured by the average Internet speed offered to businesses. We use as an instrumental variable the spatial structure of ARPANET, a network funded by the Department of Defense that is considered the precursor of the Internet, and whose location we determine using historical government documents. We show that faster Internet stimulates short-run growth and increases the shares of employment and GDP in high-skilled services, while negatively affecting sectors such as retail, accommodation, and food services. Two mechanisms explain our results. First, input-output linkages since industries that buy more ICT inputs increase their weight on the local economy. Second, a rise in high-skilled workers in ICT intensive occupations, which is consistent with the Rybczynski theorem of the Hecksher-Ohlin Vanek model and with the presence of capital-skill complementarities. Lastly, we find that better Internet increases earnings inequality within U.S. counties. Such finding has implications for Internet subsidies across the country.
Redistribution Policy and Social Welfare: A View from Macroeconomics
(Universidad EAFIT, 2022-03-09) Posada, Carlos Esteban; Universidad EAFIT
This paper evaluates the effects of redistribution policies on macroeconomic performance, income distribution and social welfare using three alternative social welfare criteria (Pareto's, Rawls' and a mixed one), and establishes the link between the above and the ruler's optimal policy. The main conclusions are the following: 1) a negative effect of redistribution through taxation and subsidies is the increase in the interest rate; 2) as a society advances in the process of wealth redistribution, there comes a time when the ruler faces a trade-off: to maintain this process or to avoid losses in social welfare.
Impacto del COVID-19 sobre la demanda y oferta de vivienda nueva No VIS en Colombia
(Universidad EAFIT, 2022-03-09) Álvarez Zuluaga, Daniela; Betancur Carvajal, Catalina; García Rendón, John; Universidad EAFIT; Universidad EAFIT; Universidad EAFIT
In this paper we examine the impact of COVID-19 on the demand and supply of new No VIS housing in Colombia. Using a model of Seemingly Unrelated Regression, we find that COVID-19, measured through the number of infections, and the interest rate in UVR present an inverse relationship with the No Vis new housing supply, decreasing the quantities offered during the most critical months of the pandemic. In addition, the price index for new housing complies with the law of supply, which can be validated with what has been observed in 2021 regarding the growth in the launch of new real estate projects, at the same time that prices have also been higher, justified, in part, by the increase in costs as a result of the pandemic.
Análisis sectorial del consumo de la electricidad durante la pandemia – COVID-19: evidencia para los mercados no regulado y regulado en Colombia
(Universidad EAFIT, 2022-03-09) García Rendón, John; Rey Londoño, Felipe; Arango Restrepo, Luis José; Bohórquez Correa, Santiago; Universidad EAFIT; Asimetrix S.A.S.; Agricapital S.A.S; Universidad EAFIT
In this investigation, through a model of seemingly unrelated equations, we conduct a sectoral analysis of electricity consumption during the pandemic - COVID-19 for the main sectors that make up the Unregulated and Regulated markets in Colombia. Using daily data for the unregulated market and monthly data for the regulated market between February 2015 and May 2021, we find statistically significant evidence of a recomposition in electricity consumption with the pandemic from the mandatory preventive confinement, established by Decree 457 of 2020, the average consumption in the residential sector increased by 16.9%, since they were carrying out their work from their residences. On the contrary, those sectors of the unregulated market subject to quarantines presented a fall. However, in sectors that were not subjected to mandatory preventive isolation, since they were necessary to satisfy the supply of basic services such as health, food (agriculture) and water supply, their coefficients for strict confinement were not statistically significant and presented an increase in electricity consumption.
Ampliando las opciones en el mercado laboral: el presente y el futuro de la educación vocacional y técnica en Colombia
(Universidad EAFIT, 2022-01-12) Chaparro, Juan Camilo; Maldonado, Darío; Universidad EAFIT; Universidad de los Andes
This work makes a diagnosis of the way in which the regulation of Vocational and Technical Education in Colombia is organized and its relationship with some structural problems of the Colombian labor market. EVT is understood as the set of programs that lead to formally recognized certifications or titles and whose objective is to train workers in skills demanded by the productive sector. In Colombia, this corresponds to the one- to three-year programs offered in Higher Education Institutions (IES), Education Institutions for Work and Human Development (IETDH) and SENA. The relevant qualifications for this study are technological, professional technicians and labor technicians. Although SENA does not use the term technical labor for its titled offer and only uses the term technical, the two types of programs are equivalent, which is why both are called technical labor in the document. On the other hand, this work does not take into account the long-cycle training (four years or more) that is part of Higher Education. The three programs we refer to offer training opportunities to a significant number of Colombians. Altogether, the entire offer of long and short cycles in 2018 had an enrollment of 2.6 million people, with 40% corresponding to EVT programs.
Mejores colegios en Colombia: efecto de las condiciones socioeconómicas sobre el desempeño escolar
(Universidad EAFIT, 2021-05-14) Arenas Alzate, Alejandro; Universidad EAFIT
This paper presents evidence on the effects of using socioeconomic status (SES) adjusted test scores on schools ranking. Adjusted scores are estimated from the residuals of a linear regression model using data from the Saber 11 exam for the 2014-2020 period. I found that the use of SES-adjusted test scores reduces the socioeconomic gap between schools ranking in the highest performance decile and those ranking below by 69%. This result emphasizes the importance of calculating measures that differentiate the effect of variables that are beyond school control. This paper also presents a data visualization tool that includes indicators on the relative performance of schools, the distribution of their students, and their progress over time based on both adjusted and unadjusted scores. Ultimately, this tool will allow all stakeholders to make decisions based on a broader and more accurate picture of educational quality.
Could the Colombian economy grow faster? How it would be possible?
(Universidad EAFIT, 2021-10-17) Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban; Universidad EAFIT
This paper presents an economic growth model based on the positive externalities generated by the accumulations of physical and human capital. Such externalities imply, at the macroeconomic level, increasing returns to scale. The model helps to better understand the Colombian economic growth process from 2005-2019, and make conditional forecasts. One of the big obstacles in Colombia to have higher growth rates of the per capita product in the long term is everything that is slowing down a higher human capital growth rate and a greater creation of externalities derived from human capital, that is, everything that is hindering improvements in coverage and quality of the educational process.
The Evolution of Citizen Security in Colombia in Times of COVID-19
(EAFIT University - Inter-American Development Bank, 2021-10-20) Alvarado, Nathalie; Norza, Ervyn; Perez-Vincent, Santiago M.; Tobón Zapata, Santiago; Vanegas-Arias, Martín; Inter-American Development Bank; National Police of Colombia; Inter-American Development Bank; EAFIT University; EAFIT University
This technical note examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime and law enforcement dynamics in Colombia. The analysis uses administrative data on police reports and arrests for different types of offenses. It applies a “difference-in-differences” model, comparing the number of reports and arrests during the quarantine against their pre-quarantine trend. The results show a marked decline in homicides, motor vehicle theft, and other theft types in the initial weeks of the quarantine. The strong initial declines attenuated over time. The results reveal differences in crime dynamics between different regions of the country. The analysis also shows how COVID-19 modified police activity: arrests for offenses such as homicide and robbery decreased, and arrests due to threats to public health increased. This article contributes to a growing number of studies on the pandemic’s social impact and provides data and tools to inform citizen security and criminal justice policies.
Determining the banking solvency risk in times of COVID-19 through Gram-Charlier expansions
(Universidad EAFIT, 2021-09-20) Rendón, Juan F.; Cortés, Lina M.; Perote, Javier; Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano - ITM; Universidad EAFIT; University of Salamanca
This paper proposes risk measures for bank solvency by accurately measuring the solvency risk components. These measures consider the minimum regulatory solvency levels and banks’ risk appetite level and risk profile. For this purpose, we used semi-nonparametric statistics to model stylized facts of the risk distribution, particularly the high-order moments of the Solvency Decline Rate, the Tier Decline Rate, and the Portfolio Growth Rate variables. Additionally, these risk measures can be used to measure the risk of regulatory intervention and to define policies that establish the minimum solvency levels required by banking regulators by estimating the Quantile Risk Metrics. As a case study, we collected data on the solvency indicators of the Colombian banking system, which adapts to the standards established by the Basel Committee. According to the results, the liquidity injection measures implemented in response to the needs generated by the COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in the levels of the risk portfolio in the Colombian banking system, which exceeded the 99th percentile of the probability distribution of monthly portfolio value changes.
Broken windows policing and crime: Evidence from 80 Colombian cities
(Universidad EAFIT, 2021-09-01) Mejía, Daniel; Norza, Ervyn; Tobón Zapata, Santiago; Vanegas-Arias, Martín; Universidad de los Andes; Policía Nacional de Colombia; Universidad EAFIT; Universidad EAFIT
We study the effects of broken windows policing on crime using geo-located crime and arrest reports for 80 Colombian cities. Broadly defined, broken windows policing consists of intensifying arrests—sometimes for minor offenses—to deter potential criminals. To estimate causal effects, we build grids of 200 × 200 meters over the urban perimeter of all cities and produce event studies to look at the effects of shocks in police activity in the periods to follow. We use spikes in the number of arrests with no warrant—which are more likely associated with unplanned police presence—as a proxy for shocks in broken windows policing. As expected, we observe an increase in crimes during the shock period, as each arrest implies at least one crime report. In the following periods, crimes decrease both in the place of the arrests and the surroundings. With many treated grids and many places exposed to spillovers, these effects add up. On aggregate, the crime reduction offsets the observed increase during the shock period. Direct effects are more immediate and precise at low crime grids, but beneficial spillovers seem more relevant at crime hot spots. The effects of broken windows policing circumscribe to cities with low or moderate organized crime, consistent with criminal organizations planning their activities more systematically than disorganized criminals.
Criminal capital persistence: Evidence from 90,000 inmates’ releases
(Universidad EAFIT, 2021-06-22) Escobar Bernal, Maria Antonia; Tobón Zapata, Santiago; Vanegas Arias, Martín; Universidad EAFIT
We study persistence in criminal capital by looking at the effects of inmates’ releaseson crime around prisons in Colombia. Leveraging detailed geographic and temporal information on the universe of releases from all prisons and crime reports, we find that property crimes are 16% higher around prisons on days inmates are released. Inmates specialized in property crimes drive the impacts. Improvements in non-criminal human capital or longer incarceration spells do not mitigate these effects. These results suggest the specific deterrence or rehabilitation effects of incarceration are weak for individuals with higher initial levels of criminal capital. We also document two externalities resulting from incarcerating specialized criminals. First, we find evidence of adverse peer effects. Second, in a back-of-the-envelope estimation, we document that crime incidence due to prison location drops property values and property tax revenues. Our results raise concerns about the usefulness of incarceration in its most widely adopted form.

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