Economía (trabajo de grado)
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Publicación Understanding the Determinants of Labor Informality in Colombia : An Integrated Approach Using Econometric and Machine Learning Models (2024)(Universidad EAFIT, 2002-10-13) Lopera Salas, Esteban; Almonacid Hurtado, Paula MaríaPublicación Diesel Price Stabilization and Food Prices in Colombia : Evidence on Energy-Food Price Transmission from 2013-2024(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-25) Ortiz, Martín; Escovar, SylviaEstablished in 2007, Colombia's Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC) has played a crucial role in reducing the volatility of domestic diesel prices relative to international diesel prices. The stabilization of diesel prices has ultimately helped regulate inflationary dynamics through the years. With the adaptation of several methods, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Johansen cointegration test, VECM estimate, Granger causality test, and Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, this paper examines how the FEPC's diesel price stabilization policy has influenced the transmission of energy costs to food prices from 2013 to 2024. The results reveal that the FEPC effectively mitigated diesel-to-food price transmission, but this protection weakened thereafter. The study suggests that a more sustainable mechanism to control energy-related inflationary risks could help limit the fiscal deficit and rising food prices.Publicación Impacto de la iliquidez del mercado accionario colombiano en la valoración de sus principales empresas cotizadas(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-10) Gómez Vásquez, Martín; Montoya Gil, Juan MiguelThis study examines the impact of stock market illiquidity on the valuation of Colombia’s main publicly traded companies over the 2015–2024 period. Using monthly data on prices, trading volumes, and accounting information, representative portfolios by firm size are constructed along with a liquidity factor based on the return differential between illiquid and liquid stocks. An extended CAPM model is estimated by incorporating the liquidity risk alongside the market factor to assess whether illiquidity constitutes a systematic risk component priced in expected returns. The results indicate that illiquidity is indeed priced in the Colombian stock market: large-cap firms display a positive and significant liquidity coefficient, evidencing an illiquidity premium, while medium-sized firms show an inverse effect and small firms exhibit no statistically significant relationship. Comparative evidence with regional markets confirms Colombia’s relatively low depth and market development. These findings suggest that the lack of liquidity increases financing costs and depresses corporate valuations, representing a relevant risk for both investors and issuers. The research contributes to the emerging markets literature by providing recent evidence of an illiquidity premium within a context of limited market integration and high ownership concentration.Publicación Cambios en la estructura de las importaciones y su efecto sobre la inflación en Colombia : 1992-2024(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-13) Lozano Ochoa, Mónica Isabella; Goda, ThomasPublicación Relación del e-commerce con la formalización de micronegocios en Colombia : un análisis en el contexto del Covid-19(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-07) Ibarra Lecompte, Juan Sebastián; Jaramillo Canastero, María Adelaida; Cardona Rodríguez, Michael AlbertoThis study examines the effects of e-commerce adoption on the formalization of micro-businesses in Colombia during the 2019-2023 period. Using microdata from DANE’s Microbusiness Survey (EMICRON), we estimate logit models to evaluate the relationship between digital tools, such as online sales, mobile applications, and electronic banking, and the likelihood of formal registration through the "Cámara de Comcercio" or tax identification (RUT). The results show that e-commerce adoption is positively associated with higher levels of formalization, indicating that digitalization functions as a mechanism for visibility and business strengthening, particularly since the acceleration brought by the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that digital transformation is an effective path to promote the formalization and productive integration of micro-enterprises into the Colombian economyPublicación Impacto sectorial de la guerra comercial en las exportaciones colombianas a Estados Unidos y China, 2018-2024(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-07-30) Cruz Prado, Alejandro; Goda, ThomasThis thesis examines how the US-China trade war (2018–2024) affected Colombian exports to both countries at the product level. Using monthly data at the HS10 level (for the US) and HS08 level (for China) and applying a Difference-in-Differences model with continuous treatment, it estimates the effect of tariffs on Colombian trade. Results show no statistically significant impact of the tariffs China imposed on the US on Colombian exports to China. Conversely, a small but significant decline was observed in Colombian exports to the US due to tariffs the USA imposed on China, contrary to standard trade diversion expectations. A qualitative analysis of the five most affected products reveals that input demand contraction dominated the effects on Colombian exports to China, while trade diversion occurred in a few US-bound Colombian products such as aluminum, plastics, and footwear. Overall, Colombia experienced limited trade diversion effects, with modest gains in some sectors but losses in others. The limited effects are likely due to weak GVC participation and declining industrial demand. The findings underscore the importance of product-level analysis when assessing third-country effects of trade conflicts in commodity-exporting economies.Publicación La educación no tiene precio : la imposibilidad del cálculo económico en la escuela pública colombiana — un enfoque austriaco(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-10-23) Rojas Díaz, Juan Pablo; Juan Esteban Vélez VillegasPublicación Del miedo a la oportunidad : un índice predictivo para el mercado bursátil colombiano(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Soto González, Miguel Ángel; Montoya Gil, Juan MiguelPublicación Cuando el lugar importa : factores municipales relacionados al uso de servicios de salud mental en Antioquia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Yepes Martínez, Sofía; Ceballos García, Grey Yuliet; Puerta Puerta, Henry DanielPublicación The Morning After, Years Later : The Lasting Effects of Emergency Contraception on Fertility in Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Otero Arango, María José; Guerrero Torres, María José; Posso Suárez, Christian ManuelPublicación Shockwawes : The invisible impact of the global economy on inflation in Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Sánchez Graciano, Katerin Sofía; Vásquez Chacón, Sebastián; Pinilla Barrera, AlejandroThis study examines the impact of external factors on inflation in Colombia using a VAR (Vec tor Autoregressive) model. It investigates how global inflation, particularly in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, influences domestic inflation in Colombia. Key determinants include commodity prices, exchange rates, and inflation expectations. The objectives include assessing the effects of exchange rate fluctuations, analyzing macroeconomic shocks, and developing an econometric model to identify the main drivers of inflation. The research highlights the impor tance of understanding these external influences for effective monetary policy in an interconnected global economy. The methodology involves constructing a database of both local and international macroeconomic variables and estimating their relationships to determine their impact on Colom bia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).Publicación Pagos digitales y bienestar financiero a lo largo del ciclo de vida : un análisis empírico(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Martínez Castro, María Paola; Cuberos Villegas, Martín; Álvarez Franco, Pilar Beatriz; Almonacid Hurtado, Paula MaríaPublicación El dilema de la inacción : riesgos económicos y estrategia en el cambio climático(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Rios Carmona, María José; Chaparro Cardona, Juan CamiloThis research analyzes the economic incentives that influence international cooperation in response to climate change, using a dynamic game theory model. Through an infinitely repeated game, the strategies of four key actors—United States, China, the European Union, and a coalition of middle-income countries—are evaluated across three rounds (2030, 2040, 2050), incorporating empirical data on GDP, CO₂ emissions, and climate-related costs. The results reveal that although non-cooperation initially prevails, the growing economic impacts of global warming create inflection points where collective action becomes inevitable. This study contributes to the literature by overcoming the limitations of static models, proposing a framework that integrates both asymmetries between countries and temporal dynamics. Furthermore, it incorporates monetary values into the utility function to enable a more realistic and policy-relevant analysis.Publicación Actores, partidos y aplausos : el detrás de cámaras de la legislación en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Ferreira Escobar, William Andrés; Torres García, AlejandroPublicación Crónica de una nota anunciada : análisis de los factores determinantes del rendimiento académico colombiano a través de las pruebas Pisa 2022(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Zapata Guerra, Juan David; Gaviria Ossa, Tomas; Chaparro Cardona, Juan Camilo.Publicación Bolivia's Balance of Payments Crisis : From Boom to Bust(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Gutiérrez Ramírez, Isabella; Goda, ThomasThis article investigates Bolivia’s current balance of payments crisis, identifying its principal causes and broader economic implications. The study focuses on key factors, such as the decline in natural gas exports, elevated government spending, and the fixed exchange rate regime. These factors and sustained current account deficits have increasingly exposed the Bolivian economy to external vulnerabilities. Utilizing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research assesses both short- and long-term relationships between Bolivia’s balance of payments and macroeconomic variables, such as the Real Effective Exchange Rate, the Volume of Natural Gas Exports, Government Spending, and the GDP Growth of Bolivia’s trading partners. The results indicate that the fixed exchange rate policy has created imbalances by distorting the Real Effective Exchange Rate. Additionally, the government’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons has made fiscal policy less effective in maintaining economic balance. The findings emphasize the need for structural reforms, including revisiting the exchange rate policy, diversifying export sources, and improving fiscal management to mitigate future vulnerabilities. This research offers valuable insights into Bolivia’s economic challenges and provides a framework for understanding the broader consequences of heavily relying on natural resources within a globalized economy.Publicación Determinantes de la pobreza oculta en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Mosquera Taborda, Juan Manuel; Chaparro Cardona, Juan CamiloPublicación Análisis espaciotemporal de hot spots de diferentes tipos de crimen en Medellín(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Jiménez Giraldo, Ana María; García Cruz, Gustavo AdolfoPublicación Análisis empírico de la relación entre la tasa de cambio real, la tasa de cambio nominal y los precios reales del petróleo ¿Qué mueve la competitividad en el mercado internacional?(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Quirós Gómez, Salomón; Posada Posada, Carlos EstebanPublicación La relación entre la fuerza laboral femenina y la movilidad empresarial ascendente en el Oriente Antioqueño : análisis econométrico de 2017-2023(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Ospina Ramírez, Clara Isabel; Cardona Rendón, Isabela; Tamayo Plata, Mery Patricia; Chaparro Cardona, Juan CamiloBusiness mobility is essential to understanding the economic dynamics of Eastern Antioquia, a region with high growth potential. Although progress has been made in gender equity, questions remain about how female leadership influences business performance. Previous literature suggests that women’s participation in managerial roles can strengthen financial performance and adaptability, which justifies exploring its relationship with upward business mobility. Using logit models applied to the periods 2017–2019 and 2021–2023, the study finds that business age negatively affects the probability of upward mobility, favoring younger firms. Additionally, female inclusion—measured by the total number of women employed—showed a positive and significant effect before the pandemic but lost statistical relevance after 2020. This shift suggests a possible rupture in the mechanisms that previously supported gender-driven growth, highlighting the need for further research on how to promote equity in changing economic contexts.