Economía (trabajo de grado)
URI permanente para esta colección
Examinar
Envíos recientes
Publicación Entre la promesa y la evidencia : evaluación de impacto de la política ZOMAC en el desarrollo económico municipal(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-29) Naranjo Ramírez, Valentina; Álvarez García, Angélica; Atuesta Becerra, Laura HelenaThis study estimates the impact of the ZOMAC tax policy on municipal economic development in Colombia, measured through municipal value added. It builds on the fact that the armed conflict left deep socioeconomic constraints in the most affected municipalities, limiting investment, employment, and productive capacity. In this context, ZOMAC was designed as a differentiated tax intervention to incentivize economic activity in 344 historically affected municipalities. Based on official municipal data, this thesis evaluates whether the policy strengthened local economic activity in beneficiary territories. The results show no statistically significant evidence of an effect on municipal value added during the period analyzed. This lack of evidence may be explained by limited implementation, persistent structural constraints in the targeted territories, and the insufficiency of the tax incentive as an isolated mechanism for productive transformation. Thus, the study provides empirical evidence on the scope and limits of tax incentives as instruments for reducing territorial economic disparities.Publicación Efectos heterogéneos de la tasa de cambio real sobre el sector manufacturero en regímenes de apreciación y depreciación(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-29) Bedoya Álvarez, Carlos Daniel; Goda,ThomasThe objective of this study is to determine whether commodity price cycles have heterogeneous effects on the manufacturing exports of commodity-dependent countries. To this end, a panel dataset comprising 34 countries for the period 1972–2024 is constructed, integrating data from a commodity price index with manufacturing export data. First, commodity boom and bust regimes are identified using a two-state Markov-switching model applied to a commodity price index weighted by each country’s export structure. Subsequently, the effects on manufacturing exports are estimated using OLS with country fixed effects for three distinct dependent variables, and an alternative robustness test is conducted. The results do not allow for a clear conclusion regarding the presence of the Dutch disease and heterogeneous effects, given the ambiguities among the different regressions.Publicación Modelo de scoring para la toma de decisiones crediticias en Pymes orientadas a clientes sin historial crediticio(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-20) Pérez Gómez, Luciano; Vásquez Martínez, Miguel Ángel; Montoya Gil, Juan MiguelPublicación Riesgo moral del prestador bajo pago por evento en el régimen subsidiado de salud colombiano : un modelo de interacción estratégica entre IPS y EPS-S(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-15) Estupiñán Zapata, Santiago; Botero García, Jesús AlonsoThis study analyzes how the fee-for-service payment model in Colombia’s subsidized health regime may generate moral hazard incentives on the part of providers, within a bilateral relationship in which the provider (IPS) has better information about the patient’s true severity, while the subsidized insurer (EPS-S) only observes the submitted claim and not the actual clinical condition. At the same time, the EPS-S also plays a role in the strategic interaction, as it may choose either to recognize the claim under ordinary review or to dispute it through claim denial and audit procedures. The study adopts a quantitative approach grounded in economic modeling. To this end, it develops an extensive-form game with chance and imperfect information to represent the strategic interaction between insurer and provider. The model incorporates expected payoffs, auditing costs, dispute costs, and the probability of effective detection in order to identify the conditions under which opportunistic claim intensification becomes convenient and those under which claim denial operates as a credible threat. The contribution of the study is to show that, under fee-for-service, the tension between IPS and EPS-S can be understood as a problem of incentives and control under imperfect information, with implications for the institutional design of the subsidized regime.Publicación Las FNCER como direccionadoras del spot energético(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-26) Torres Parra, Laura Daniela; Castrillón Graciano, Isabela; Yepes Raigosa, David AlejandroThis study analyzes how the integration of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sources (NCRES) has affected the spot price of electricity in Colombia during the period 2018–2025. The Colombian electricity market currently relies heavily on hydropower generation, making it highly sensitive to climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, which can reduce water availability and increase generation costs. In this context, the country has promoted the use of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, to diversify its energy matrix and reduce this dependence. For the analysis, electricity market data obtained from XM and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) as a climate variable are used. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is estimated to examine both the long-run relationships and the short-run adjustments among the variables. Additionally, hydropower and thermal generation variables are included to account for the most important factors affecting electricity prices. The results show that an increase in NCRES generation is associated with a decrease in the spot price, which is consistent with the merit-order effect. However, the variability of these energy sources may also lead to changes in price behavior. Overall, this study provides evidence of the role of renewable energy sources in the Colombian electricity market and highlights their importance in the country's energy transition process.Publicación Efecto del cambio regulatorio asociado a la transición energética en la generación de valor de Ecopetrol (2022–2025)(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-21) Arcos Cruz, Joan Danilo; Luján Jaramillo, Alejandra MaríaThis study seeks to analyze the relationship between Ecopetrol’s value creation, as measured by Tobin’s Q, and the effects of the energy transition policy implemented during the 2022–2025 period. The objective is to identify whether the energy transition policy and other macroeconomic variables affected the company’s value creation. To this end, an Ordinary Least Squares model with first-differenced variables was employed, using quarterly time series data for the 2015–2025 period. The results show that some macroeconomic variables are related to the quarterly variation in Tobin’s Q; however, the dummy variable representing the exogenous energy transition shock does not exhibit a statistically significant relationship with the variation in the company’s Tobin’s Q. It is concluded that, within the time horizon analyzed and under the model employed, no statistically strong effect is found with respect to the firm’s valuation.Publicación Análisis de la tasa impositiva óptima bajo la hipótesis de la Curva de Laffer : evidencia para Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-27) Rendón Palacio, Miguel; Ramírez Cantillo, Esteban; Hurtado Rendón, Álvaro ArturoThis paper empirically tests the existence of the Laffer Curve in Colombia (2000-2025), using internal tax revenue as a proportion of GDP as the dependent variable, and corporate and individual income tax revenues as independent variables. The analysis was conducted through centered double-logarithmic models using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with HAC robust standard errors (Newey-West), an eight-quarter lag, and inflation controls (PPI and CPI). The results confirm a non-linear, inverted U-shaped relationship, placing the optimal level for revenue maximization at 5.45% of GDP for corporations and 1.09% for individuals. By contrasting these thresholds with the tax burden of the most recent government, evidence shows that both groups currently operate in the descending zone of the curve. Consequently, it is concluded that further increases in the tax burden will be inefficient, making it imperative to focus future fiscal policy on broadening the tax base and reducing tax evasion.Publicación Dinámica de los precios de la vivienda nueva en el AMVA : un análisis econométrico con GSADF, SVAR y proyecciones locales, 2016-2015(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-28) González Echavarría, Juan Diego; Vargas Perdomo, Juan Miguel; Torres Gorron, Jhon EdwarPublicación Costeo económico de los impactos ambientales del ciclo de vida de la generación eólica a gran escala(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-15) Garrido-Barragán, Camila; Vélez-Montoya, Paulina; Botero García, Jesús AlonsoPublicación Oportunidades digitales, barreras reales : inclusión laboral femenina en la Colombia post pandemia(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-27) Duque García, Valeria; Vásquez Tabares, Juan Alejandro; Chaparro Cardona, Juan CamiloThe COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of remote work and generated structural transformations in labor markets worldwide. In Colombia, this phenomenon reshaped employment dynamics, particularly regarding wages, job quality, and gender inequalities. In this context, this study analyzes the impact of remote work on female labor inclusion in post-pandemic Colombia, focusing on its effects on labor income, working hours, and employment formalization among potentially remote workers. The research uses monthly microdata from the Colombian Great Integrated Household Survey (GEIH) conducted by DANE between 2016 and 2025. Due to the absence of a direct teleworking variable, a proxy for telework potential is constructed based on reported workplace location and economic sectors with high remote-work adaptability. Methodologically, the study employs a difference-in-differences model with a quadruple interaction between telework potential, the post-pandemic period, gender, and age group, using a pseudo-panel of population cohorts. The results reveal heterogeneous effects of remote work expansion on labor welfare in Colombia. In terms of earnings, adult men in potentially teleworkable occupations experienced a positive wage premium after the pandemic, while women continued to face significant wage disadvantages. Nevertheless, the gender wage gap among potentially remote workers narrowed from approximately 40% before the pandemic to around 29% in the post-pandemic period. Regarding job quality, potentially teleworkable workers showed shorter working hours and higher levels of labor formalization after the pandemic. However, these benefits were unevenly distributed across demographic groups. Young women in potentially teleworkable occupations emerged as the most vulnerable group, displaying lower levels of formal employment and greater relative disadvantages compared to other workers. The study concludes that remote work simultaneously functioned as a mechanism of labor inclusion and as a factor reinforcing structural inequalities. Although the expansion of digital labor modalities partially reduced some gender gaps, significant disparities persisted due to unequal access to formal employment, human capital, and the unequal distribution of unpaid care responsibilities. These findings highlight the importance of designing public policies aimed at promoting a more inclusive and equitable digital transformation in the Colombian labor market.Publicación Under the Same Stethoscope : Gender Earnings Gaps Among Physicians in Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-04-30) Morales López, Sofía; Posso Suárez, ChristianPublicación Household Food Security and Structural Improvements through the Hogares Saludables Program : Evidence from Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-12) Herazo Castelblanco, Ana Sofía; Muñoz Mora, Juan CarlosPublicación Determinantes económicos y estacionales del precio del ganado bovino en pie en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-20) Hernández Quintero, Camilo Andrés; Zuluaga Chávez, Martín; Toores Gorrón, John EdwarPublicación Understanding the Determinants of Labor Informality in Colombia : An Integrated Approach Using Econometric and Machine Learning Models (2024)(Universidad EAFIT, 2002-10-13) Lopera Salas, Esteban; Almonacid Hurtado, Paula MaríaPublicación Diesel Price Stabilization and Food Prices in Colombia : Evidence on Energy-Food Price Transmission from 2013-2024(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-25) Ortiz, Martín; Escovar, SylviaEstablished in 2007, Colombia's Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC) has played a crucial role in reducing the volatility of domestic diesel prices relative to international diesel prices. The stabilization of diesel prices has ultimately helped regulate inflationary dynamics through the years. With the adaptation of several methods, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Johansen cointegration test, VECM estimate, Granger causality test, and Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, this paper examines how the FEPC's diesel price stabilization policy has influenced the transmission of energy costs to food prices from 2013 to 2024. The results reveal that the FEPC effectively mitigated diesel-to-food price transmission, but this protection weakened thereafter. The study suggests that a more sustainable mechanism to control energy-related inflationary risks could help limit the fiscal deficit and rising food prices.Publicación Impacto de la iliquidez del mercado accionario colombiano en la valoración de sus principales empresas cotizadas(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-10) Gómez Vásquez, Martín; Montoya Gil, Juan MiguelThis study examines the impact of stock market illiquidity on the valuation of Colombia’s main publicly traded companies over the 2015–2024 period. Using monthly data on prices, trading volumes, and accounting information, representative portfolios by firm size are constructed along with a liquidity factor based on the return differential between illiquid and liquid stocks. An extended CAPM model is estimated by incorporating the liquidity risk alongside the market factor to assess whether illiquidity constitutes a systematic risk component priced in expected returns. The results indicate that illiquidity is indeed priced in the Colombian stock market: large-cap firms display a positive and significant liquidity coefficient, evidencing an illiquidity premium, while medium-sized firms show an inverse effect and small firms exhibit no statistically significant relationship. Comparative evidence with regional markets confirms Colombia’s relatively low depth and market development. These findings suggest that the lack of liquidity increases financing costs and depresses corporate valuations, representing a relevant risk for both investors and issuers. The research contributes to the emerging markets literature by providing recent evidence of an illiquidity premium within a context of limited market integration and high ownership concentration.Publicación Cambios en la estructura de las importaciones y su efecto sobre la inflación en Colombia : 1992-2024(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-13) Lozano Ochoa, Mónica Isabella; Goda, ThomasPublicación Relación del e-commerce con la formalización de micronegocios en Colombia : un análisis en el contexto del Covid-19(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-11-07) Ibarra Lecompte, Juan Sebastián; Jaramillo Canastero, María Adelaida; Cardona Rodríguez, Michael AlbertoThis study examines the effects of e-commerce adoption on the formalization of micro-businesses in Colombia during the 2019-2023 period. Using microdata from DANE’s Microbusiness Survey (EMICRON), we estimate logit models to evaluate the relationship between digital tools, such as online sales, mobile applications, and electronic banking, and the likelihood of formal registration through the "Cámara de Comcercio" or tax identification (RUT). The results show that e-commerce adoption is positively associated with higher levels of formalization, indicating that digitalization functions as a mechanism for visibility and business strengthening, particularly since the acceleration brought by the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that digital transformation is an effective path to promote the formalization and productive integration of micro-enterprises into the Colombian economyPublicación Impacto sectorial de la guerra comercial en las exportaciones colombianas a Estados Unidos y China, 2018-2024(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-07-30) Cruz Prado, Alejandro; Goda, ThomasThis thesis examines how the US-China trade war (2018–2024) affected Colombian exports to both countries at the product level. Using monthly data at the HS10 level (for the US) and HS08 level (for China) and applying a Difference-in-Differences model with continuous treatment, it estimates the effect of tariffs on Colombian trade. Results show no statistically significant impact of the tariffs China imposed on the US on Colombian exports to China. Conversely, a small but significant decline was observed in Colombian exports to the US due to tariffs the USA imposed on China, contrary to standard trade diversion expectations. A qualitative analysis of the five most affected products reveals that input demand contraction dominated the effects on Colombian exports to China, while trade diversion occurred in a few US-bound Colombian products such as aluminum, plastics, and footwear. Overall, Colombia experienced limited trade diversion effects, with modest gains in some sectors but losses in others. The limited effects are likely due to weak GVC participation and declining industrial demand. The findings underscore the importance of product-level analysis when assessing third-country effects of trade conflicts in commodity-exporting economies.Publicación La educación no tiene precio : la imposibilidad del cálculo económico en la escuela pública colombiana — un enfoque austriaco(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-10-23) Rojas Díaz, Juan Pablo; Juan Esteban Vélez Villegas