Examinando por Materia "Tasa de cambio"

Mostrando 1 - 20 de 20
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    Condición Marshall-Lerner: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano, 1980 - 2001
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2005) Rendón Obando, Hernando; Ramírez Hassan, Andrés; Profesor asociado Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Funcionario Empresas Públicas de Medellín y docente e investigador Universidad Eafit.; Escuela de Economía y Finanzas; Economía; Estudios en Economía y Empresa
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    Condición Marshall-Lerner: una aproximación al caso colombiano, 1980-2001
    (Universidad EAFIT, 10/04/2005) Rendón Obando, Hernando; Ramírez Hassan, Andrés; Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Empresas Públicas de Medellín
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    Derivados Forward como herramienta de cobertura para mitigar la exposición al riesgo cambiario, en el sector importador de llantas para automotores en el Eje Cafetero colombiano
    (Universidad Eafit, 2020) Orozco Velásquez, Carlos Andrés; Jurado Ramírez, Juan Sebastián; Cardona Llano, Juan Felipe
    The automotive tire importer sector in the Coffee Region will be analyzed, between the years 2015 - 2019, reviewing the feasibility of using the Forward financial derivative as a strategic tool to manage the exchange rate risk to which companies are exposed due to their operation in foreign currencies, as well as the importance of including in the financial policy strategies that generate stability in the costs of imported tires to decrease the uncertainty of the company's cash flow in the short and long term. An importer of automotive tires in the coffee region will be selected to analyze how this company manages exchange rate risk, providing us with the financial information necessary to identify opportunities for improvement in the financial coverage strategy that companies have currently. This information will be consolidated and it will be cross-referenced with exchange rate databases of the day and local and foreign interest rates databases as well, to find the implicit devaluation and the Forward rate within the period 2015 to 2019, to later analyze the impact of performing coverage exchange rate in the import operation, or not. In the coffee region Impollantas XR stands out as a major importer and market leader for automotive tires representing in 2019 82.7% of the nationalized companies in the region of automotive tire containers (Legiscomex, 2019) reason why it has been selected for its relevance and impact. During the study it was found possible to freeze the costs of product through a Forward financial derivative this minimizes the uncertainty about the company's future cash flow, hence, facilitating investment decisions in the short and long term. Key words: Financial risk, Risk management, Forward Financial derivative, Exchange rate, Volatility, Cash flow, Financial strategy. Key words: Financial risk, Risk management, Financial derivative Forward, Exchange rate, Volatility, Cash flow, Financial strategy.
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    Determinantes de la volatilidad del precio interno del café en el mercado colombiano entre los años 2015 y 2022
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Chávez Pinzón , Laura María; Pardo Calderón, Lina María; Cruz Castañeda, Vivian
    Colombia is a country recognized worldwide for its agricultural products, especially for its coffee. Ninety-six percent of the coffee producers are small farmers that are exposed daily to the fluctuation of prices in the international market and, in many occasions, this dependence does not cover their production costs, encouraging the exit or little participation of the producers in the coffee industry. The main variables that influence the behavior of internal coffee prices are: the price of the C contract, the quality premium and the exchange rate. In this study a quantile regression of the returns of internal coffee prices as a function of the conditional volatility of the returns of the C Contract and the TRM, between the years 2015 and 2022, using ARMA-GARCH models, was carried out. The most impactful results show that a unit increase in the conditional volatility of the TRM returns at the 0.95 quantile generates an increase in domestic coffee returns by 0.97% and that a unit increase in the conditional volatility of C contracts generates an increase of 0.31% in the returns of domestic coffee prices. This study offers valuable insights that can contribute to improve the resilience and sustainability of the Colombian coffee industry. Furthermore, by identifying the factors that influence domestic coffee prices, this study lays the foundation for future research and policies aimed at mitigating volatility and promoting more equitable and stable conditions for coffee producers in the country.
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    Efectos de las finanzas comportamentales en la gestión del riesgo de la tasa de cambio en las pymes en Colombia
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Carvajal Gómez, Valentina; Argüelles Jaramillo, Santiago; Villamil Villamil, Fernando Alonso
    This research analyzes the effects of biases associated with behavioral finance on exchange rate risk management in SMEs companies in the Colombian real sector. Although behavioral finance has been widely studied in the investment field, it is relevant to analyze its impact on hedging decisions to anticipate and mitigate exchange rate risk. To this end, a survey was applied to thirty SMEs and thirty risk managers of financial institutions, in order to examine the intersection between the literature on behavioral finance and the decision-making process for managing the exchange rate risk of these firms. The results reveal the prevalence of cognitive biases in this process, suggesting the necessity to present strategies and recommendations to mitigate them.
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    Estrategia de cobertura con forward para la exportación de café verde colombiano
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Hernández Arboleda, Camilo; Pérez Arbeláez, Sebastián
    This research project proposes the development of a forward financial hedging strategy for the export of Colombian green coffee, with the aim of reducing exposure to price change risk and obtaining profits in the operation. In this sense, to evaluate the effectiveness of the strategy, 4 types of export scenarios were estimated, one where the entire hedging model is applied, another where no hedging is carried out, and two other exercises with partial hedging (situations in which there is speculation with the value of the exchange rate, under scenarios of depreciation and appreciation of the currency).
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    Estrategia de cobertura para la gestión del riesgo de tipo de cambio en la empresa Vallecaucana Prompack SAS
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2022) Varón Gómez, Maria Camila; Sánchez Echeverry, Daniel Fernando; Waserman Álvarez, Jean Paul
    In Colombia, exporting and importing are two pillar activities for the national economy, both face the volatility of the exchange rate, which is a risk factor for entrepreneurs. In order to minimize and even avoid this risk, there are tools such as foreign exchange hedges that act as an appropriate mechanism to help protect the cash flows, profitability and value of companies. Vallecaucana Prompack SAS is a company dedicated to the manufacture and export of packaging solutions and dosage of plastic products This document aims to define the different hedge mechanisms that are used in the industrial sector, in order to determine the possible strategies that can be used by the company to mitigate the fluctuations of the exchange rate and evaluate the impact in the financial indicators of the company.
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    Estrategia de cobertura para mitigar el riesgo cambiario en una empresa del sector industrial en el Valle del Cauca
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2019) Gómez Saldarriaga, Jessica Paola; Vásquez Román, Juan José; Waserman Álvarez, Jean Paul
    This paper aims to develop and evaluate the main factors in the design of one foreign exchange hedging strategy for a company in the industrial sector in Valle del Cauca, as a mechanism to mitigate the present risks in exchange rate fluctuations. In this way, the income statement and the capital structure of the company are protected from the possible effects in the exchange rate variations on the assets, current liabilities, operating profit, net income and therefore on its financial indicators. For this, it is intended to analyze the company's exposure to this kind of risk, the different tools and mechanisms currently used for its management, and also this paper contains a small exchange rate financial derivatives summary, in order to identify the appropriate hedging strategy for this company.
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    Evaluación financiera de una compañía importadora de equipos industriales en períodos coyunturales de tasa de cambio volátil
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2016) Montilla Vélez, Juan David; Echeverri Aristizábal, Felipe; Restrepo Tobón, Diego Alexander
    El presente trabajo de grado plantea una evaluación del riesgo de liquidez de una compañía colombiana importadora de equipos industriales entre el período 2013-2015 -- La empresa experimentó dificultades financieras debido a la aguda depreciación del peso colombiano frente al dólar americano durante dicho tiempo -- Se realizó un análisis financiero a profundidad de la compañía para identificar los principales factores de riesgo a los que se enfrenta la empresa y en particular el riesgo de liquidez -- Se identificó que la inadecuada gestión de los flujos de caja, el apalancamiento financiero en dólares y la ejecución de inversiones no planeadas fueron los principales causantes de las dificultades financieras de la empresa -- Se propone un modelo de proyección mensual de los flujos de caja de la compañía con un horizonte de dos años, el cual sirve para gestionar y mitigar el riesgo de liquidez -- El modelo se fundamenta en el análisis de escenarios y en simulación de Montecarlo
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    Gestión del riesgo cambiario en una empresa exportadora colombiana mediante el uso de derivados
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Montoya Urán, Yenny; Carmona Sánchez, Esteban Giovanni; Cruz Castañeda, Vivian
    This thesis presents a strategy for managing exchange rate risk in a Colombian exporting company through the application of financial derivatives. The study focuses on a company dedicated to the production of raw materials for food, whose exports in U.S. dollars (USD) currently account for 34% of its sales, with a projected increase to 60%. Using the EGARCH model (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity), the exchange rate between the USD and the Colombian peso (COP) was modeled to evaluate its behavior between 2021 and 2022, enabling a forecast for 2023. This forecast was compared with actual data to assess its accuracy. The results indicated that the EGARCH (1,1) model is the most suitable, achieving a deviation of less than 8% in the final days of comparison. Based on these projections, the necessary coverage amount was determined to mitigate potential impacts on the company’s financial statements and cash flow in 2023. It was concluded that the most appropriate derivative for the company is the Forward contract, and the Value at Risk (VaR) was used to establish the maximum potential loss. This research aims to offer a comprehensive approach to exchange rate risk management, combining financial modeling and the use of derivatives, providing practical tools for informed decision-making in exporting companies.
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    El impacto de la tasa de cambio en la industria bananera de Colombia durante los años 2008-2019
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2021) Varela Montoya, Sebastián; Suaza Gómez, René Gerónimo; Pérez Restrepo, Camilo Alberto
    The Colombian banana industry occupies an important line within the country's non-mining energy exports, specifically the third most representative sector after coffee and flowers, respectively. Banana production in Colombia concentrates in the Magdalena and Urabá regions of Antioquia, and the country directs approximately 90% of the production to the international markets. However, both export revenues and export volumes depend, among many other variables, on the volatility of the exchange rate. During the period 2008-2019, the exchange rate variability has been a constant, with both appreciation and depreciation periods suggesting impacts on the Colombian banana industry's income and production. This paper develops a data panel gravitational model, in which the exchange rate is an explanatory variable of both income and production quantities. In accordance with the theoretical framework and the background studied, the results show that a depreciation of the Colombian peso to the US dollar generates increases in export income. Likewise, an appreciation of the Colombian peso to the US dollar explains increases in Colombian bananas' export volumes to the international market
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    Impacto de la tasa de cambio spot : USD/COP sobre el índice MSCI COLCAP en el periodo 2020 – 2022
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Morales Uribe, Jorge Mario; Giraldo Giraldo, Lizeth Vanessa; Molina Sierra, Luis Felipe
    This paper analyzes the impact that the USD/COP spot exchange rate had on the MSCI COLCAP index during the period 2020 – 2022 through a quantitative analysis and study, based on weekly moving time series variations in five-day windows and developing an econometric Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ADL) to dermine the long-term effect. The results obtained were satisfactory, because there is a significant long-term effect of the exchange rate on the index. The results obtained in this study offer a guide for those organizations, governments or people who make financial accounting or investment decisions in the Colombian stock market and in the exchange rate in times of high uncertainty and strong economic conditions as it happened in the analyzed time period.
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    Impacto en el estado de resultados de una compañía porcícola en Colombia ante el uso de coberturas cambiarias para la adquisición de maíz
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Roldán Delfino, Santiago; Urrego Gómez, José; Cardona Llano, Juan Felipe
    In Colombia, companies in the agricultural sector rely on imported materials. This forces companies to conduct transactions in foreign currencies, primarily in US dollars. This situation exposes companies to foreign exchange risk, which, along with the volatility of the Colombian peso and its dependence on the dynamism of the global economy, makes it interesting to consider the possibility of using financial instruments such as derivatives to minimize or mitigate the inherent risk in this activity. The volatility in the exchange rate generates uncertainty and high variation in the cash flows of companies in the agricultural sector due to the difficulty of making an accurate projection of cash flow, as there is a significant challenge in projecting the value that the currency will have at the time of importation. Thus, the purpose of this document is to evaluate the impact that the use of hedging through derivatives to manage exchange rate risk for the acquisition of corn would have on the income statement of a pork company in Colombia.
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    Pass-through en Colombia : un análisis de la inflación desagregada
    (Universidad Eafit, 2020) Echeverri Rodríguez, Sara; Torres García, Alejandro
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    Proyección de la Tasa de Cambio Representativa del Mercado, por medio de la simulación Montecarlo, sensibilizada con el método Bootstrap para la toma de decisiones financieras de Groupe Seb Andean S.A.
    (2019) Dávila Betancur, María Andrea; Brayan Ricardo, Rojas
    Groupe Seb Andean S.A is a cookware products manufacturing company and commercialize small appliances. In Colombia it operates with the brand Imusa and Samurai. Currently, the company has a vision to develop new business abroad. Companies that carry out activities in the international context are exposed to multiple risks, among these, the exchange risk, which will be the objective of study in this thesis. The objective is to forecast the Exchange Rate through a stochastic simulation model sensitized with the Bootstrap method. The goal is to develop daily and monthly reports for the financial and commercial management team; with the objective to forecast the currency's trend and analyze the impact in the financial statements of the company. Through the aforementioned methods, a short- and medium-term management and decision-making tool was developed leaving the entity to take its decisions more accurately.
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    La tasa de cambio y los cultivos de coca en la región andina
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2019) Posada Salazar, Valentina; Sosa Arango, Juanita; Dávalos Álvarez, Eleonora