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¿Es posible predecir el comportamiento de los precios de los futuros del agua considerando las características estadísticas de sus respectivos índices? : un enfoque desde las redes neuronales
(Universidad EAFIT, 2021) Valero Murcia, María José; Bustamante Grajales, María José; Almonacid Hurtado, Paula María
The fear of the scarcity of such an important good as water leads to a debate that consists mainly of two ideas. The first indicates that until now water has been a public good of consumption and a right of all people and, the second indicates that commercializing water will help regulate its price, thus preventing a shortage of this good. In this research report, both opinions are taken into account; however, an emphasis is made on the consequences that would be obtained in the commodities market. The state of California in the United States is taken as a reference, since it has presented high cases of scarcity in recent years and uses the NQH20 index, which shows the price of future water contracts in this state. An analysis is carried out using Neural Networks as it allows us to make inferences that will lead us to anticipate multiple negative consequences that may occur in the future, if the use of this good is not controlled now their scarcity or abundance will cause a huge fluctuation in the price.