Examinando por Autor "Posada, Carlos Esteban"

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    Causas del desarrollo y mecánica del crecimiento
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2004-11-17) Posada, Carlos Esteban
    The theme of this essay is one of the most important addressed by economists, at least since Adam Smith, and one that will always attract attention. And in our case, that of economists who have witnessed a country and a time whose rates of increase in GDP per capita have gone in about two or three decades, from relatively normal to others rather low average levels, the attraction of this issue has become especially intense. Overcame so intense that, in my case, to the consciousness of the immense difficulties they would face if addressed, and knowing that the chance of saying something really new was nil, or almost.
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    Colombian Economic Growth, Investment and Saving: From 1954 to 2019 and Beyond
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2019-08-20) Posada, Carlos Esteban
    This paper presents an interpretation of post-1953 Colombian economic growth and a discussion on future outcomes. The interpretation takes the form of a data playback guided by the decentralized equilibrium version of the Cass-KoopmansRamsey model. The role of technical change as a driver of GDP growth,household income and average wage is highlighted. The model leads to an unusual conclusion when it is applied to a small open economy like the Colombian one: the higher the rate of expected technical change, the higher the firms ´s investment rate and the lower the households’ savings rate, remaining constant other things.
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    The Cost of UncertaintyEl Costo de la Incertidumbre
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2024-01) Posada, Carlos Esteban; Universidad EAFIT
    The traditional and most common view of economists on the issue of (bad) uncertainty and its effects has been one of partial equilibrium. When the topic is approached from a macroeconomic perspective, the most frequent has been the examination of the effects of uncertainty shocks on short-term dynamics with various methods, but mainly with neoKeynesian and statistical (vector autoregressive) models. This document responds to another concern and has two objectives: 1) to reflect on this issue with some instruments of the macroeconomist´s toolbox related to a medium or long-term horizon, and 2) report a ciphering of the social cost of uncertainty in the Colombian case.
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    Demanda de dinero en América Latina, 1996-2016: una aplicación de cointegración en datos de panel
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2018-04) Villca, Alfredo; Torres, Alejandro; Posada, Carlos Esteban; Velásquez, Hermilson
    In this paper we consider a structural model of general equilibrium that allows us to deduce the demand for money as a function of the level of transactions and the opportunity cost of maintaining it. Through the application of the panel cointegration method and the FMOLS, we estimate the income and interest rate elasticities derived from a long-term relationship for a sample of 15 Latin American countries. The findings suggest the existence of a longterm equilibrium of money demand. The estimates for this exercise for the whole panel are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model, but the magnitude of the elasticities differs when examined for each country. This seems to indicate that the money markets are not homogeneous and may be associated with different experiences in terms of macroeconomic performance.
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    Determinants of Total Factor Productivity: The cases of the main Latin American and emerging economies of Asia (1960 - 2015)
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2018-12-01) Gómez, Wilman; Posada, Carlos Esteban; Rhenals, Remberto
    The objective of this paper was to explain the greater or lesser growth rate of total factor productivity, TFP, in the main East Asian and Latin American economies between 1960 and 2015. We found econometric evidence favorable to this hypothesis: the increase in public consumption expenditures, given the evolution of other factors, reduces the TFP. Other results of the econometric exercise, those that are related to hypothetical positive effects of public investment and imports on TFP were not as robust or as reliable as we would have expected.
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    Dynamic Macroeconomics: A Didactic Numeric Model
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2018-04-25) Posada, Carlos Esteban; Sanchez, Santiago
    Teaching Dynamic Macroeconomics at undergraduate courses relies exclusively on intuitive prose and graphics depicting behaviours and steady states of the main markets of the economy. But when the case of forward-looking agents and the macroeconomic implications of their actions are discussed, intuitions and graphical representations offered to students may lead to unsupported conclusions. This happens even if the teacher and students use the chapter upon a dynamic macroeconomic model of one of the most didactic and ordered texts ever published: Williamson (2014). In this paper we try to sustain this assertion.
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    Growth and stagnation: The case of the Japanese economy (1981-2009)
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2017-05-01) Ballesteros, Carlos; Posada, Carlos Esteban
    The pace of Japanese economic growth was substantially higher than that exhibited by the group of developed economies between 1985 and 1995; later has been lower. What explains this "relative decline"? According to the econometric results of an exercise carried out, inspired by the model of Aghion and Howitt (2009), the hypotheses of insufficient investment or savings can be considered implausible to explain such performance, while an alternative hypothesis can be considered likely: The loss of efficiency of the Japanese society, compared with the other developed societies, to transform resources required in R&D into a high and constant rate of technical change.
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    Homer: A Forerunner of Neoclassical Economics
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2012-05-01) Posada, Carlos Esteban
    Homer clearly expressed the economic problem of choosing the best option among several alternatives given a certain set of restrictions. In the Odyssey he specifically wrote about the minimum cost choice. This kind of problem, as is well known, is at the heart of the neoclassical economics. We can therefore consider Homer a forerunner of this school of thought. This hypothesis contrasts with those of Trever (1916), Schumpeter (1954) and Schefold (1997).