Escuela de Finanzas, Economía y Gobierno

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Entre la promesa y la evidencia : evaluación de impacto de la política ZOMAC en el desarrollo económico municipal
(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-05-29) Naranjo Ramírez, Valentina; Álvarez García, Angélica; Atuesta Becerra, Laura Helena
This study estimates the impact of the ZOMAC tax policy on municipal economic development in Colombia, measured through municipal value added. It builds on the fact that the armed conflict left deep socioeconomic constraints in the most affected municipalities, limiting investment, employment, and productive capacity. In this context, ZOMAC was designed as a differentiated tax intervention to incentivize economic activity in 344 historically affected municipalities. Based on official municipal data, this thesis evaluates whether the policy strengthened local economic activity in beneficiary territories. The results show no statistically significant evidence of an effect on municipal value added during the period analyzed. This lack of evidence may be explained by limited implementation, persistent structural constraints in the targeted territories, and the insufficiency of the tax incentive as an isolated mechanism for productive transformation. Thus, the study provides empirical evidence on the scope and limits of tax incentives as instruments for reducing territorial economic disparities.