Maestría en Economía Aplicada (tesis)
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Examinando Maestría en Economía Aplicada (tesis) por Autor "Astudillo Mendoza, Carlos Alberto"
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Ítem Cambio climático, convergencia económica regional y efectos espaciales : nueva evidencia empírica para Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Astudillo Mendoza, Carlos Alberto; Aristizábal Tamayo, Juan ManuelThe study analyzes the effects of climate change on economic growth and conditional regional convergence processes in Colombia over the past decade. Using panel models applied to 32 departments over the 2008-2019 period, climate variables are incorporated, and spatial dependence is modeled to capture both the direct and indirect effects of climate on economic growth and interregional convergence. Three main findings emerge from the results: (1) the interaction between the deviation from departmental average temperature and convergence, with an estimated coefficient between -0.03 and -0.044, suggests that temperature variations have more significantly impacted economic growth in the more developed departments; (2) evidence of nonlinearities in the climate-growth relationship, with an optimal deviation threshold of 0.32 °C from the historical average, beyond which negative effects on growth are observed; and (3) the presence of spatial spillover effects, where climatic variations in one department impact the economic performance of neighboring regions. These findings contribute to understanding how climate change influences regional growth and convergence patterns, highlighting the importance of implementing mitigation and adaptation measures that consider both local effects and regional interdependencies, as well as the critical thresholds identified in this analysis (0.32°C).