Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows

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dc.citation.epage463
dc.citation.issue4
dc.citation.journalTitleJournal of International Developmenteng
dc.citation.spage440
dc.citation.volume27
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversidad EAFIT, Medellín, Colombiaspa
dc.contributor.affiliationLondon School of Economics and Political Science, London, UKspa
dc.contributor.affiliationKiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germanyspa
dc.contributor.authorCanavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo Javierspa
dc.contributor.authorNeumayer, Ericspa
dc.contributor.authorNunnenkamp, Peterspa
dc.contributor.departmentEscuela de Economía y Finanzasspa
dc.contributor.departmentEconomíaspa
dc.contributor.programEstudios en Economía y Empresaspa
dc.date2015
dc.date.accessioned2015-11-06T16:24:55Z
dc.date.available2015-11-06T16:24:55Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractAid flows continue to be volatile and unpredictable, even though it is widely accepted that this erodes the effectiveness of foreign aid. We argue that fragmented donor–recipient relationships, notably the large number of minor aid relations that tend to be associated with donors' desire to ‘fly their flag’ around the world, increase aid unpredictability. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of aid unpredictability suggests that aid becomes less predictable with more fragmented donor–recipient relationships. Specifically, the effect of fragmentation on overshooting previous spending plans is statistically significant and substantively important. In contrast, fragmented donor–recipient relationships have no effect on the shortfall of actual aid compared with donors' spending plans.eng
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/jid.3073
dc.identifier.issn1099-1328
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10784/7506
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltdeng
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of International Development. Vol.27(4), 2015, pp.440-463spa
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.3073/abstract
dc.relation.urihttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.3073/abstract
dc.rightsrestrictedAccesseng
dc.rightsCopyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.spa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccesseng
dc.rights.localAcceso restringidospa
dc.sourceJournal of International Development. Vol.27(4), 2015, pp.440-463spa
dc.subject.keywordaid predictabilityeng
dc.subject.keyworddonor fragmentationeng
dc.subject.keywordforward spending planseng
dc.titleWhy Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flowseng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioneng
dc.type.hasVersionObra publicadaspa
dc.type.localArtículospa

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