Publicación: Gobernanza criminal en América Latina: cuánto pesa, cómo se manifiesta y qué haría hoy un gobierno responsable
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Fecha
2025
Autores
Lessing, Benjamin
Uribe, Andrés
Schouela, Noah
Stecher, Elayne
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Universidad EAFIT
Resumen
En comunidades de toda América Latina, organizaciones criminales proveen orden y seguridad básicos. Aunque la investigación multidisciplinaria sobre la gobernanza criminal (GC) ha permitido comprender sus dinámicas a partir de cientos de estudios de caso específicos, su alcance sigue siendo poco estudiado. Este trabajo utiliza nuevos datos de encuestas representativas a nivel nacional, validados con un compendio de fuentes cualitativas, para estimar la prevalencia de la GC en 18 países y explorar sus correlaciones en múltiples niveles. En total, el 14% de los encuestados reportó que grupos criminales locales proveen orden y/o reducen el crimen, lo que corresponde aproximadamente a entre 77 y 101 millones de latinoamericanos que experimentan GC. De manera contraintuitiva, la GC se correlaciona positivamente tanto con las percepciones de los encuestados sobre la calidad de la gobernanza estatal como con medidas objetivas de la presencia del Estado a nivel local. Estos resultados descriptivos son consistentes con múltiples posibles relaciones causales, incluyendo hallazgos de casos específicos que sugieren que la presencia —y no la ausencia— del Estado puede impulsar la gobernanza criminal. El estudio propone recomendaciones tanto para mejorar la recolección de datos sobre GC como para, dada su amplia presencia, incorporarla en investigaciones más amplias sobre desarrollo económico, demografía y política.
In communities throughout Latin America, criminal organizations provide basic order and security. While multidisciplinary research on criminal governance (CG) has illuminated its dynamics in hundreds of site-specific studies, its extent remains understudied. We exploit novel, nationally representative survey data, validated against a compendium of qualitative sources, to estimate CGprevalence in 18countries, and explore its correlates at multiple levels. Overall, 14% of respondents reported that local criminal groups provide order and/or reduce crime, corresponding to some 77–101 million Latin Americans experiencing CG. Counterintuitively, CG is positively correlated with both respondents’ perceptions of state governance quality and objective measures of local state presence. These descriptive results are consistent with multiple causal pathways, including case-specific f indings that state presence—rather than absence—drives criminal governance. We offer suggestions for both more precise data collection on CG itself and, given its pervasiveness, its inclusion in broader research on economic development, demography, and politics.
In communities throughout Latin America, criminal organizations provide basic order and security. While multidisciplinary research on criminal governance (CG) has illuminated its dynamics in hundreds of site-specific studies, its extent remains understudied. We exploit novel, nationally representative survey data, validated against a compendium of qualitative sources, to estimate CGprevalence in 18countries, and explore its correlates at multiple levels. Overall, 14% of respondents reported that local criminal groups provide order and/or reduce crime, corresponding to some 77–101 million Latin Americans experiencing CG. Counterintuitively, CG is positively correlated with both respondents’ perceptions of state governance quality and objective measures of local state presence. These descriptive results are consistent with multiple causal pathways, including case-specific f indings that state presence—rather than absence—drives criminal governance. We offer suggestions for both more precise data collection on CG itself and, given its pervasiveness, its inclusion in broader research on economic development, demography, and politics.