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Does Storing Pay Off? Evidence from a Counterfactual Regression Discontinuity of Colombia's Paddy Rice Storage Incentive (2013–2025)

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dc.contributor.affiliationUniversidad EAFIT
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversidad de los Andes
dc.contributor.affiliationIndependiente
dc.contributor.authorMuñoz-Mora, Juan Carlos
dc.contributor.authorMejía Tejada, Daniela
dc.contributor.authorValbuena, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorGonzález, Karen
dc.contributor.authorLópez, Stefany
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez, Daniel
dc.creator.emailjmunozm1@eafit.edu.co
dc.creator.emaildmejiat1@eafit.edu.co
dc.creator.emailn.valbuena10@uniandes.edu.co
dc.creator.emailkaren.sgonzalez@hotmail.com
dc.creator.emailslopezv22@eafit.edu.co
dc.date.accessioned2026-05-08T20:10:35Z
dc.date.available2026-05-08T20:10:35Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.description.abstractThis study evaluates the effectiveness of Colombia's Dry Paddy Rice Storage Incentive Program (1997–2023), a policy instrument designed to stabilize rice prices and guarantee supply amid high seasonality and perishability. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) combined with regression kink discontinuity (RKD) elements and exploiting detailed daily and monthly price data, we analyze the program's effects on paddy rice prices, farmers' net margins, production decisions, and consumer prices. Results show that when mills actively participate, the program mitigates the seasonal decline in paddy prices, reversing pre-incentive downward trends and contributing to faster stabilization. In irrigated systems, the policy smooths producers' incomes by reversing negative profit trajectories, while in non-irrigated systems effects are weaker and inconsistent. The program also induces extensive production responses, as higher incentives correlate with larger harvested areas, and alter the transmission between paddy and white rice prices. Despite these short-term benefits, the policy exhibits structural inefficiencies: limited coverage, fiscal dependence, and distortions leading to oversupply and reduced competitiveness. Findings suggest that while stock stabilization can buffer shocks, Colombia's rice sector requires a transition toward differentiated, inclusive, and efficiency-enhancing instruments to ensure long-term sustainability, particularly in view of tariff elimination under international trade agreements. Overall, the findings recommend an orderly transition towards less distorting instruments differentiated by productive system.
dc.description.note42 páginas
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.instnameinstname:Universidad EAFIT
dc.identifier.jelQ18
dc.identifier.jelQ12
dc.identifier.jelC21
dc.identifier.jelH25
dc.identifier.jelO13
dc.identifier.jelQ13
dc.identifier.reponamereponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT
dc.identifier.repourlrepourl:https://repository.eafit.edu.co
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10784/38029
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherUniversidad EAFIT
dc.publisher.departmentCentro Valor Público
dc.publisher.facultyEscuela de Finanzas, Economía y Gobierno
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.localAcceso abierto
dc.subject.keywordStock-stabilization
dc.subject.keywordpublic policy
dc.subject.keywordCounterfactual
dc.subject.keyworddiscontinuous regression
dc.subject.keywordrice production
dc.subject.keywordeffectiveness analysis
dc.titleDoes Storing Pay Off? Evidence from a Counterfactual Regression Discontinuity of Colombia's Paddy Rice Storage Incentive (2013–2025)
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042
dc.type.localDocumento de trabajo de investigación
dc.type.redcolhttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/WP
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/draft
dspace.entity.typePublication

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