Maestría en Ciencias en Finanzas (tesis)
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Ítem Active portfolio management process with sentimental factor. Iterative deep learning approach(Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Alemán Muñoz, Julián Alberto; Pantoja Robayo, Javier OrlandoÍtem Análisis de eficiencia en los mercados de opciones sobre índices : una aproximación a los mercados emergentes(Universidad EAFIT, 2011) Loaiza Palacio, Daniel; Arbeláez Zapata, Juan CamiloAn efficient capital market is characterized because asset prices reflect the effects of information based on events that have already occurred and on events that the market expects will happen in the future (Fama, 1965). Although the hypothesis of efficiency has been proven in multiple index options markets, it has been conducted mainly in developed markets, and has relied more on the count of violations than on the estimation of returns which are obtained when strategies are implemented to take advantage of market inefficiencies and its comparison with the returns of the market. This study proposes a methodology, based on dynamic programming, for testing the efficiency in emerging markets such as Latin-Americans, and allows a comparison of the test results on a developed market of index options. At the end some recommendations are done to undertake an efficiency test in the future COLCAP index options market in Colombia.Ítem Análisis del impacto de la Ley 550 y la Ley 1116 en las variables críticas de valoración(Universidad EAFIT, 2010) Agudelo Restrepo, Jairo Julián; Angulo Ochoa, Tulia María; Medina Arango, Oscar EduardoLa Ley 550 de 1999 de Reestructuración, y la Ley 1116 de 2006 de Reorganización Económica, han ayudado a muchas compañías que se encontraban en una difícil situación financiera y con presiones en sus flujos de caja a encontrar una salida óptima para prorrogar los pagos a los acreedores, lo que puede aliviar las necesidades de caja de corto plazo y mejorar la estructura financiera y operativa de las compañías. Por ello es de vital importancia contar con un estudio del impacto que podrían tener las principales variables de creación de valor en una compañía frente a una eventual salida de las leyes antes citadas, lo que puede ayudar a una mejor toma de decisiones por parte de los administradores de esas compañías, al igual que puede mejorar el entendimiento del público en general frente a las compañías que se encuentran atadas a estas leyes.Ítem Análisis del impacto de los ADR´S de empresas latinoamericanas en sus mercados de valores locales(Universidad EAFIT, 2009) Escobar Berdugo, Alexander; Torres Avendaño, Gabriel IgnacioThe American Depositary Recept (ADR) have presented an interesting development since their creation. In the early of century XX, They have been widely used by South American companies from 80’s decade. Such development have generated a lot of interest concerning to the impact that’s produced by the evaluation for this financial instruments in local stock exchange, and the global integration level which they can generate in growing markets which companies used they for to extend their number of customer and gain monetary resources. In this way, for analyze the impact of these financial instruments on South American stock exchange, analysis are used which are focused in development of local stock Exchange vs. the ADR’s behavior associated to local companies. In this order of ideas through statistics methodologies which improve the temporal structure and observed cross section in this type of stock exchange, The different interactions between North American ADR’s exchange and South American stock exchange which companies use highly this instruments.Ítem Análisis del índice general de las bolsas de valores de Colombia (IGBC), chile (IPSA) y Perú (IGBVL), y sus rendimientos desde la teoría del caos 2001-2011(Universidad EAFIT, 2011) Restrepo Restrepo, Jorge Humberto; Velásquez Ceballos, HermilsonThe purpose of this paper is to examine if exist persistence and chaotic structures in the time series of the Colombian (IGBC), Chile (IPSA) and Peru (IGBVL) stock Exchange Index and their returns, during the period between July 2001 and May 2011. To achieve this goal, the series are tested for nolinearity using the BDS Test, the series memory using the Hurst Exponent, the chaotic dynamics using the Lyapunov Exponent, the self-similarity using the fractal dimension, and the cycles as part of their structure components. The Market Fractal Analysis of the markets was introduced by Edgar Peters in the beginnings 90’s and is based in the Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry, and it have been an alternative to investigate and analyze financial markets and need less statistical assumptions that other theories like the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This investigation found evidence of persistence and chaotic dynamics systems in the analyzed financial market time series, which suggest that other strategies that could be considered in stock exchange transactions process.Ítem Aplicación del modelo Copula Opinion Pooling al mercado accionario colombiano(Universidad EAFIT, 2019) Yepes Valencia, Sebastián; Pantoja Robayo, JavierÍtem Asset Pricing using a Network Approach(Universidad EAFIT, 2019) Isaza Cadavid, Juan Esteban; Restrepo Tobón, Diego Alexander; Pulido Tamayo, SergioThis paper approaches the U.S. stock market as a network and explains stocks’ returns by taking into account community formation among securities and its centrality inside the network. This approach differs from the ones previously reported in that it analyzes complex systems of connected assets and considers characteristics generally ignored in financial markets.Ítem ¿Aumentan los flujos extranjeros la volatilidad en los mercados accionarios emergentes? : evidencia en seis paises latinoamericanos(Universidad EAFIT, 2009) Castaño E., Milena María; Agudelo Rueda, Diego AlonsoEn este artículo se estima la influencia que tienen los flujos de capital extranjero sobre la volatilidad de los rendimientos y la exposición al riesgo de mercado mundial en los seis mercados accionarios Latinoamericanos más representativos: Argentina, Brasil, Colombia, Chile, México y Perú, desde finales de los noventa hasta el 2008. De esta manera se pone a prueba la hipótesis de que dichos flujos son perjudiciales para los mercados y aumentan su exposición al riesgo sistémico mundial. Con este fin se realizan pruebas estadísiticas utilizando modelos univariados (ARCH – GARCH) y multivariados (VAR), que además de estimar la significancia de estas relaciones, permitan concluir acerca de la causalidad de estos efectos. A diferencia de otras investigaciones similares, este estudio hace uso de la base de datos de Emerging Portfolio. Es de anotar que en la mayoría de los casos no se encuentra evidencia fuerte que soporte los efectos negativos de los flujos extranjeros en los mercados estudiados. Sin embargo, se encontró evidencia de relaciones entre los rendimientos de dichos mercados con los flujos extranjeros, la devaluación y los rendimientos internacionales que confirman resultados de otros estudios.Ítem Comparación de alternativas de cobertura de la tasa de cambio con derivados, para una empresa exportadora colombiana(Universidad EAFIT, 2010) Isaza Gómez, Daniel; Benjumea Muñoz, Sergio Nicolás; Agudelo Rueda, Diego Alonso; Herrera Echeverri, Hernán HumbertoIt proposes a methodology for exporting companies, in order to establish optimal coverage of the exchange rate, using derivative instruments available in the Colombian financial sector -- The methodology is implemented in a flower exporting company, whose sales depend on a 99% of the exchange rate -- Modeling cash flow annually, it selects the hedging strategy that maximizes derivative cash flow expected, provided there is a limit on cash flow risk- CFAR -- The CFAR was established as the minimum to cover, financial obligations, the investment projects and profit sharing at a level of confidenceÍtem Corporate and ESG performance : the moderating effect of environmental dimensions(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Hurtado Rivera, Daniel; Gaitán Riaño, Sandra Constanza; Téllez Falla, Diego FernandoÍtem Corporate social responsibility and cost of equity : evidence from Latin America(Universidad EAFIT, 2022) Castellanos Rios, Santiago; Gaitán Riaño, Sandra ConstanzaÍtem Cross- Hedging emerging stock indexes in Latin America with commodities and financial futures contracts in time of crises(Universidad EAFIT, 2022) Arango Montoya, Valeria; Couleau, AnabelleÍtem Customer churn prediction in insurance industries : a multiproduct aproach(Universidad EAFIT, 2020) Henao Madrigal, Mauricio; Laniado Rodas, Henry; Restrepo Tobón, Diego AlexanderCustomers in the insurance industry usually have multiple products under the same company. Due to the importance of costumers and the increase of quality and satisfaction given in services, churn prediction for multiproduct customers has become important to support customer satisfaction. An estimation was made, using survival models, to find the determinants that most affect multiproduct customer churn. Using data from a Latin American company, the estimation shows that the first product cancellation influences customer churn. The variables that have the strongest influence in churning are the number of cancelled products, the customers portfolio, the claims paid and the distribution channel. On the other hand, the variables that increase the life time of the customer in the company after the first cancellation are the maximum number of products the customer has had and having a health insurance after the first cancellation. This study contributes by identifying the significant variables that influence customer churn in the Latin American insurance industry, and estimating the time a customer will remain in the company after the first cancellation, which will help stakeholders on the achievement of a customer centered strategy.Ítem Determinantes de las inversiones en capital de riesgo en Latinoamérica(Universidad EAFIT, 2010) Gutiérrez Chaverra, Diana Catalina; Saldarriaga Romero, Víctor Jaime; Herrera Echeverri, Hernán; Velásquez Ceballos, ErmilsonEn las últimas décadas la industria del Venture Capital ha tenido un alto crecimiento en los países desarrollados, sin embargo, dicho comportamiento solo ha sido evidente para el caso latinoamericano recientemente. Esta industria se considera uno de los principales factores que promueven el desarrollo económico y la innovación empresarial, ya que se convierte no sólo en un mecanismo de inversión para grandes inversionistas privados que buscan altos retornos a mediano y largo plazo, sino que también se convierte en una fuente importante de recursos de capital para empresas pequeñas o emprendedoras con grandes ideas empresariales, pero que no cuentan con los recursos suficientes para desarrollar su proyecto. Por lo tanto, es necesario identificar cuáles son los determinantes de la variabilidad del Venture Capital Fundraising en Latinoamérica de forma tal que se puedan generar políticas en torno a estas que promuevan nuevas inversiones en venture capital. Para tal fin se emplea un modelo de datos de panel a través del cual se identifican determinantes como la inversión extranjera directa neta, el producto interno bruto, la inflación y el riesgo político como aspectos relevantes de ésta industria; lo que sugiere a su vez que el buen desempeño de variables económicas, políticas e incluso de ambiente empresarial son determinantes en la industria de venture capital en Latinoamérica al igual que en diversos países del mundo.Ítem Does board diversity matter on credit risk?(Universidad EAFIT, 2020) Giraldo Arango, Daniel; Gaitán Riaño, Sandra ConstanzaÍtem Does private equity impact on exports? evidence from OECD countries(Universidad EAFIT, 2019) Fragua Rengifo, Daniel Felipe; Herrera Echeverri, HernánÍtem Does time-varying systematic risk explain contrarian and momentum returns? : an analysis for emerging markets(Universidad EAFIT, 2020) Cachope Nova, Cristhian José; Saravia Matus, Jimmy AgustínContrarian and momentum strategies have challenged the efficient market hypothesis as predictable patterns that allow investors to capitalize on past information and outperform market returns based on miss-reaction of naive investors. Market efficiency implies that agents are rational and, on average, the only way of achieving higher returns is by taking higher risks. This study investigates whether there are such predictable patterns in Emerging Markets and whether these profits are due to variation in time of systematic risk by estimating time-varying beta using a DCC model. Results indicate that these two strategies achieve higher returns because they are riskier and not because investors are irrational.Ítem Efficiency and effectiveness of fundraising in crowdfunding model vs traditional models(Universidad EAFIT, 2022) Jaramillo Ochoa, Valeria Andrea; Gaitán Riaño, Sandra ConstanzaÍtem Estimación del riesgo de crédito en empresas del sector real en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2010) Sepúlveda Rivillas, Claudia; Reina Gutiérrez, Walter; Gutiérrez Betancur, Juan CarlosThis paper proposes a Probit Model for unbalanced panel data with random effects to estimate the probability of bankruptcy (default) of the real sector firms in Colombia, to be used in the inferring of credit risk, taking information of solvent and in financial distress firms, existing in databases of the Superintendencia de Sociedades and B.P.R, for the period 2002‐2008. The development of the work started with a fundamental analysis, focusing on indicators of profitability, leverage, liquidity and solvency proposed by Penman (2010). This research emphasizes the operational and financial leverage, found that these indicators as well as the solvency have a statistically significant influence on the probability of bankruptcy. Another finding is that belonging to construction and manufacturing sectors, increases the bankruptcy likelihood, while belonging to the transport sector diminishes it.Ítem Estrategia de cobertura a través de contratos forward en mercados eléctricos(Universidad EAFIT, 2011) Trespalacios Carrasquilla, Alfredo; Rendón García, Juan Fernando; Pantoja Robayo, Javier Orlando
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