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    Evaluación del costo futuro de la reforma al Sistema General de Pensiones en Colombia : Ley 2381 de 2024 y su impacto para el gasto público
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Arias Sánchez, Carlos Alberto; Rodríguez Mejía, Alejandro; Yepes Raigosa, David Alejandro
    This study analyzes the variation in public spending resulting from the implementation of the pension reform in Colombia, established by Law 2381 of 2024 (Senate of the Republic, 2024). This reform transforms the Colombian pension system into a mixed model, structured around four pillars: solidarity-based, semi-contributory, contributory, and voluntary savings. The research applies the Net Present Value (NPV) method to the new parameters defined by the reform, through an analysis of the pension system’s cash flow, with the aim of assessing its impact on public finances. Although the reform includes the elimination of subsidies for high pensions and an expansion of population coverage—resulting in increased short-term revenue for the State—it also entails the creation of future obligations with high costs. Moreover, the results reveal a lack of funding for the transitional regime, which constitutes a hidden cost with significant implications for the sustainability of public finances.