Examinando por Materia "RIESGO (FINANZAS) - COLOMBIA - ADMINISTRACIÓN"

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    Análisis de la mora en créditos educativos universitarios : identificación de patrones y recomendaciones para la mitigación
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2026) Arias Rios, María Eugenia; Gutiérrez Moscoso, Catalina
    This study examines the delinquent portfolio of the internal financing line of a private university in Medellín, aiming to identify patterns associated with default and to estimate the portfolio’s expected loss. Historical data from credits granted between 2022 and 2025 were used, incorporating academic, financial, and socioeconomic variables of students and payment guarantors. The research integrates a descriptive analysis with a predictive model based on logistic regression to estimate the probability of default (PD), exposure at default (EAD), and loss given default (LGD). Results indicate that delinquency is concentrated in specific beneficiary segments and that relevant differences exist across academic levels and credit modalities. The study concludes that ensuring the sustainability of the financing program requires strengthening origination, monitoring, and collection processes through differentiated strategies aligned with the identified risk profiles.