Examinando por Materia "Precio del café"

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    Determinantes de la volatilidad del precio interno del café en el mercado colombiano entre los años 2015 y 2022
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Chávez Pinzón , Laura María; Pardo Calderón, Lina María; Cruz Castañeda, Vivian
    Colombia is a country recognized worldwide for its agricultural products, especially for its coffee. Ninety-six percent of the coffee producers are small farmers that are exposed daily to the fluctuation of prices in the international market and, in many occasions, this dependence does not cover their production costs, encouraging the exit or little participation of the producers in the coffee industry. The main variables that influence the behavior of internal coffee prices are: the price of the C contract, the quality premium and the exchange rate. In this study a quantile regression of the returns of internal coffee prices as a function of the conditional volatility of the returns of the C Contract and the TRM, between the years 2015 and 2022, using ARMA-GARCH models, was carried out. The most impactful results show that a unit increase in the conditional volatility of the TRM returns at the 0.95 quantile generates an increase in domestic coffee returns by 0.97% and that a unit increase in the conditional volatility of C contracts generates an increase of 0.31% in the returns of domestic coffee prices. This study offers valuable insights that can contribute to improve the resilience and sustainability of the Colombian coffee industry. Furthermore, by identifying the factors that influence domestic coffee prices, this study lays the foundation for future research and policies aimed at mitigating volatility and promoting more equitable and stable conditions for coffee producers in the country.