Examinando por Materia "Hazards"

Mostrando 1 - 6 de 6
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    Ítem
    Development of a global seismic risk model
    (EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH INST, 2020-02-02) Vitor Silva; Desmond Amo-Oduro; Alejandro Calderon; Catarina Costa; Jamal Dabbeek; Venetia Despotaki; Luis Martins; Marco Pagani; Anirudh Rao; Michele Simionato; Daniele Viganò; Catalina Yepes-Estrada; Ana Acevedo; Helen Crowley; Nick Horspool; Kishor Jaiswal; Murray Journeay; Massimiliano Pittore; Mecánica Aplicada
    Since 2015, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programs and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and industrial buildings, and a comprehensive set of fragility and vulnerability functions for the most common building classes. These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. This model allows estimating a number of risk metrics such as annualized average losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development and implementation of earthquake risk mitigation measures. © The Author(s) 2020.
  • No hay miniatura disponible
    Ítem
    Development of a global seismic risk model
    (EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH INST, 2020-02-02) Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Acevedo, A.; EUCENTRE; GNS Science; US Geological Survey; Natural Resources of Canada; GFZ Potsdam; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Global Earthquake Model Foundation; Acevedo, A.; EUCENTRE; GNS Science; US Geological Survey; Natural Resources of Canada; GFZ Potsdam; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ingeniería de Producción; Materiales de Ingeniería
    Since 2015, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programs and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and industrial buildings, and a comprehensive set of fragility and vulnerability functions for the most common building classes. These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. This model allows estimating a number of risk metrics such as annualized average losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development and implementation of earthquake risk mitigation measures. © The Author(s) 2020.
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    Ítem
    Development of structural debris flow fragility curves (debris flow buildings resistance) using momentum flux rate as a hazard parameter
    (Elsevier B.V., 2018-05-18) Prieto, Jorge Alonso; Journeay, Murray; Acevedo A.B.; Arbelaez, Juan; Ulmi, Malaika; Prieto, Jorge Alonso; Journeay, Murray; Acevedo A.B.; Arbelaez, Juan; Ulmi, Malaika; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ingeniería de Producción; Materiales de Ingeniería
    Societal risks associated with debris flow hazards are significant and likely to escalate due to global population growth trends and the compounding effects of climate change. Quantitative risk assessment methods (QRA) provide a means of anticipating the likely impacts and consequences of settlement in areas susceptible to landslide activity and are increasingly being used to inform land use decisions that seek to increase disaster resilience through mitigation and/or adaptation. Current QRA methods for debris flow hazards are based primarily on empirical vulnerability functions that relate hazard intensity (depth, velocity, etc.) to expected levels of loss for a given asset of concern, i.e. most of current methods are dedicated to loss-intensity relations. Though grounded in observed cause-effect relationships, empirical vulnerability functions are not designed to predict the capacity of a building to withstand the physical impacts of a debris flow event, or the related uncertainties associated with modelling building performance as a function of variable debris flow parameters. This paper describes a methodology for developing functions that relate hazard intensity to probability of structural damage, i.e., fragility functions, rather than vulnerability functions, based on the combined hydrodynamic forces of a debris flow event (hazard level) and the inherent structural resistance of building typologies that are common in rural mountainous settings (building performance). Hazard level includes a hydrodynamic force variable (FDF), which accounts for the combined effects of debris flow depth and velocity, i.e. momentum flux (hv2), material density (?) and related flow characteristics including drag (Cd) and impact coefficient (Kd). Building performance is measured in terms of yield strength (Ay), ultimate lateral capacity (AU) and weight to breadth ratios (W/B) defined for a portfolio building types that are common in mountain settlements. Collectively, these model parameters are combined using probabilistic methods to produce building-specific fragility functions that describe the probability of reaching or exceeding successive thresholds of structural damage over a range of hazard intensity values, expressed in terms of momentum flux. Validation of the proposed fragility model is based on a comparison between model outputs and observed cause-effect relationships for recent debris flow events in South Korea and in Colombia. Debris flow impact momentum fluxes, capable of resulting in complete damage to unreinforced masonry buildings (URM) in those regions are estimated to be on the order of 24 m3/s2, consistent with field-based observations. Results of our study offer additional capabilities for assessing risks associated with urban growth and development in areas exposed to debris flow hazards. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
  • No hay miniatura disponible
    Ítem
    Development of structural debris flow fragility curves (debris flow buildings resistance) using momentum flux rate as a hazard parameter
    (Elsevier B.V., 2018-05-18) Prieto, Jorge Alonso; Journeay, Murray; Acevedo A.B.; Arbelaez, Juan; Ulmi, Malaika; Mecánica Aplicada
    Societal risks associated with debris flow hazards are significant and likely to escalate due to global population growth trends and the compounding effects of climate change. Quantitative risk assessment methods (QRA) provide a means of anticipating the likely impacts and consequences of settlement in areas susceptible to landslide activity and are increasingly being used to inform land use decisions that seek to increase disaster resilience through mitigation and/or adaptation. Current QRA methods for debris flow hazards are based primarily on empirical vulnerability functions that relate hazard intensity (depth, velocity, etc.) to expected levels of loss for a given asset of concern, i.e. most of current methods are dedicated to loss-intensity relations. Though grounded in observed cause-effect relationships, empirical vulnerability functions are not designed to predict the capacity of a building to withstand the physical impacts of a debris flow event, or the related uncertainties associated with modelling building performance as a function of variable debris flow parameters. This paper describes a methodology for developing functions that relate hazard intensity to probability of structural damage, i.e., fragility functions, rather than vulnerability functions, based on the combined hydrodynamic forces of a debris flow event (hazard level) and the inherent structural resistance of building typologies that are common in rural mountainous settings (building performance). Hazard level includes a hydrodynamic force variable (FDF), which accounts for the combined effects of debris flow depth and velocity, i.e. momentum flux (hv2), material density (?) and related flow characteristics including drag (Cd) and impact coefficient (Kd). Building performance is measured in terms of yield strength (Ay), ultimate lateral capacity (AU) and weight to breadth ratios (W/B) defined for a portfolio building types that are common in mountain settlements. Collectively, these model parameters are combined using probabilistic methods to produce building-specific fragility functions that describe the probability of reaching or exceeding successive thresholds of structural damage over a range of hazard intensity values, expressed in terms of momentum flux. Validation of the proposed fragility model is based on a comparison between model outputs and observed cause-effect relationships for recent debris flow events in South Korea and in Colombia. Debris flow impact momentum fluxes, capable of resulting in complete damage to unreinforced masonry buildings (URM) in those regions are estimated to be on the order of 24 m3/s2, consistent with field-based observations. Results of our study offer additional capabilities for assessing risks associated with urban growth and development in areas exposed to debris flow hazards. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
  • No hay miniatura disponible
    Ítem
    Geoportal for the management of natural threat and risk
    (IEEE, 2014-01-01) Castro Benavides, Lina Maria; Vila Ortega, Jose Joaquin; Rivera Valencia, Diana Marcela; Acosta Correa, Beatriz Susana; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ingeniería de Sistemas; I+D+I en Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones
    The Natural Threat and Risk Geoportal of Quindío is a technological platform that allows the publication of geographic information by official sources and scientists, search information, download maps and data by users, exchange and download of geographic information about natural hazard in the region. This project was conceived by the international initiative of the Latin American Community of Spatial Data Infrastructure - LatinIDE and also includes trends such as Web 2.0 philosophy or 'web of people'. © 2014 IEEE.
  • No hay miniatura disponible
    Ítem
    Influence of the uncertainty in the soil-rock spectral ratios in the definition of uniform hazard spectra at surface level
    (IMPERIAL COLLEGE PRESS, 2006-07-01) Jaramillo, Juan Diego; Mecánica Aplicada
    Based on traditionally accepted hypothesis and verified by existing data, an expression is derived to calculate response spectrum at the ground surface if the response spectrum at the basement rock is known. The fundamental assumptions are with regards to the form of variation of the exceedance rates of spectral accelerations in the basement rock, and based also on the usual (lognormal) distribution forms of the uncertainties associated with the spectral amplification function. The resulting approach multiplies the mean of the amplification function in order to consider in a rigorous way its uncertainty. © Imperial College Press.