Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT ::Examinando por Materia "Asequibilidad de vivienda"

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Comportamiento de un mercado al borde de la crisis : futuro a mediano plazo del mercado inmobiliario en Estados Unidos
(Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Ochoa Espinal, Esteban; Luján Jaramillo, Alejandra María
This study analyzes the dynamics of the real estate market in the state of Florida and its relationship with financing, foreign investment, and housing affordability in the period 2024-2028. Using ARIMA forecasting models and an analysis of economic and financial data, the research assesses sector stability and its potential risks. Three key findings emerge from the results: (1) the relationship between interest rates and housing accessibility, where rising financing costs have reduced purchasing capacity, particularly affecting first-time buyers and middle- to low-income households; (2) the influence of foreign investment, which has contributed to real estate speculation and increased property prices, leading to a reduced supply of affordable housing; and (3) the impact of recent regulatory changes in the sector, particularly in commission structures and rental market interventions, which could alter liquidity and price stability in the coming years. These findings help us understand how economic conditions and regulatory policies influence the evolution of Florida’s real estate market, highlighting the importance of implementing measures that balance housing access with sector stability and mitigate the risks of a medium-term crisis.