Examinando por Autor "Villca, Alfredo"

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    Confrontando un modelo DSGE con los datos
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2019-12-01) Villca, Alfredo; avillca@eafit.edu.co
    In this document we try to answer a key question in macroeconomic modeling. How much does a stochastic model of general equilibrium reproduce the data? To answer this question we use three metrics. First, we compare the statistical moments of the model with the data. Second, we perform a simulation of the cycles. Third, we compare the impulse-response of the DSGE model with those of an SVAR model. Additionally, the model is estimated using Bayesian methods. Taking into account data from the United States, on a quarterly frequency (1950-2019), the model replicates the behavior of the data relatively well, although certain differences in magnitudes are observed.
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    Demanda de dinero en América Latina, 1996-2016: una aplicación de cointegración en datos de panel
    (Universidad de los Andes, 2020-01-17) Torres, Alejandro; Villca, Alfredo; Posada, Carlos Esteban; Velasquez, Hermilson; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Economía y Finanzas; Research in Spatial Economics (RISE)
    The study of money demand enables us to understand the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy. In this paper, we estimate the money demand for 15 Latin American countries from 1996 to 2016, using panel cointegra-tion and FMOLS estimation methods. We also estimate a model of dynamic common factors to test for the existence of common trends between coun-tries. The results show a long run relationship between money demand, income, and interest rates. However, there is no evidence of common factors between countries, which is consistent with the heterogeneity observed in the estimated elasticities. Contrary to what we expected, in several cases, the estimated income elasticity is greater than one, which could be associated with agents’ higher risk perceptions which affect their liquidity preferences. © 2020, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economia. All rights reserved.
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    Demanda de dinero en América Latina, 1996-2016: una aplicación de cointegración en datos de panel
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2018-04) Villca, Alfredo; Torres, Alejandro; Posada, Carlos Esteban; Velásquez, Hermilson; atorres7@ea t.edu.co
    In this paper we consider a structural model of general equilibrium that allows us to deduce the demand for money as a function of the level of transactions and the opportunity cost of maintaining it. Through the application of the panel cointegration method and the FMOLS, we estimate the income and interest rate elasticities derived from a long-term relationship for a sample of 15 Latin American countries. The findings suggest the existence of a longterm equilibrium of money demand. The estimates for this exercise for the whole panel are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model, but the magnitude of the elasticities differs when examined for each country. This seems to indicate that the money markets are not homogeneous and may be associated with different experiences in terms of macroeconomic performance.
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    ¿Es conveniente una autoridad monetaria “blanda”?
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2017-08-01) Posada, Carlos E.; Villca, Alfredo; cposad25@eafit.edu.co; avillca@eafit.edu.co
    Within the framework of the so-called “inflation targeting” strategy there is a discussion about the convenience for a society as to the degree of “hardness” of a monetary authority looking to defend its inflation target, and the credibility that this authority enjoys between the private agents about it. In this paper we use a neo-Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with both rational and adaptive expectations to answer this question. Our results suggest that the social problem that can be derived from a “soft” authority is that it risks losing credibility in its effort to reach a certain inflation target. In addition, we present and use a solution of the rational expectations version of the model simple enough to allow its simulations to be performed using a spreadsheet.