Examinando por Autor "Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban"
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Ítem Caída y convergencia mundial de las tasas de inflación(Universidad EAFIT, 2021-03-19) Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban; Gómez, Wilman; Rhenals, Remberto; Universidad EAFIT; Universidad de Antioquia; Universidad de Antioquia; cposad25@eafit.edu.coThe trend observed since 1998 towards global disinflation and for national inflation rates to stabilize at low levels is due to the behavior of inflation in the United States according to the econometric exercises reported in this paper with a quarterly frequency data from the United States and 30 other countries. Additionally, the empirical evidence indicates that, in general, national monetary policies have been lax, in the following sense: monetary policy makers have taken advantage of disinflationary (or deflationary) forces coming from the United States to execute lax policies anticipating some benefits from those without fearing that its cost in terms of higher inflation will become evident.Ítem Cambio técnico y política económica: la teoría y el caso colombiano (1950 - 2019)(Universidad EAFIT, 2020-11-12) Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban; Universidad EAFIT; cposad25@eafit.edu.co.The right policy to economic growth is based on the theory of a decentralized (market) society whose productive activity expands in the long term amid ups and downs thanks to technical change and the emergence, time and again, of various obstacles to economic growth. In the Colombian case of the last 70 years, the rates of economic growth and technical change have been associated with the inter-sectoral mobilization of productive resources, that is, to what is called “structural change”, and this, in turn, to economic policies (sometimes no so right)Ítem Could the Colombian economy grow faster? How it would be possible?(Universidad EAFIT, 2021-10-17) Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban; Universidad EAFITThis paper presents an economic growth model based on the positive externalities generated by the accumulations of physical and human capital. Such externalities imply, at the macroeconomic level, increasing returns to scale. The model helps to better understand the Colombian economic growth process from 2005-2019, and make conditional forecasts. One of the big obstacles in Colombia to have higher growth rates of the per capita product in the long term is everything that is slowing down a higher human capital growth rate and a greater creation of externalities derived from human capital, that is, everything that is hindering improvements in coverage and quality of the educational process.Ítem Crecimiento y ciclos de la economía colombiana (2005 – 2019)(Universidad EAFIT, 2020-07-24) Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban; cposad25@eafit.edu.coIn 2005-19 Colombian economic growth was outstanding at the international level: GDP per worker increased 2.07% per year, equivalent to 36% in those 15 years. This was possible because total factor productivity (TFP) increased. This can be affirmed in view of the fact that capital stock, in the long term, is not an explanatory factor. What was worrying was the declining trend in the growth rate of TFP; in fact, it has stagnated in the last two years. Regarding to short run dynamics, Colombian business cycles depended on the United States´s cycles both directly and through the oil price. But the intensity of the Colombian cycles (their relative distance between peaks and troughs) was greater than the exhibited by American cycles.Ítem Dynamic Macroeconomics: A Didactic Numeric Model(Universidad EAFIT, 2018-04-28) Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban; Sánchez Gonzalez, Santiago; cposad25@eafit.edu.co; ssanch40@eafit.edu.coTeaching Dynamic Macroeconomics at undergraduate courses relies exclusively on intuitive prose and graphics depicting behaviours and steady states of the main markets of the economy. But when the case of forward-looking agents and the macroeconomic implications of their actions are discussed, intuitions and graphical representations offered to students may lead to unsupported conclusions. This happens even if the teacher and students use the chapter upon a dynamic macroeconomic model of one of the most didactic and ordered texts ever published: Williamson (2014). In this paper we try to sustain this assertion3.Ítem Efectos de reducir el impuesto a la ganancia (equilibrio parcial versus equilibrio general)(Universidad EAFIT, 2018-09-04) Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban; cposad25@eafit.edu.coThis document presents a set of estimates on the effects of reducing the rate of income tax on enterprises in the Colombian case. The estimate made under a partial equilibrium scheme generates different and less reliable results than those based on a general equilibrium model.Ítem Unconventional Monetary Policy and Inflation in the U.S.: How Much Inflation was Missing?(Universidad EAFIT, 2020-03-12) Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban; Torres García, Alejandro; Villca Condori, Alfredo; cposad25@eafit.edu.co; atorres7@eafit.edu.co; avillcac@eafit.edu.coThe U.S. inflation rate for the period 2008-2016 was abnormally low despite the execution of a high expansive monetary policy, which has been called “the missing inflation paradox”. In this paper we estimate the missing inflation as the difference between the inflation predicted, and the observed rate using two monetarist models. The results support the adequacy of this approach to explain the inflation during 1970-2005. However, after that, the estimated missing inflation was around 3.5%-3.9% annually on average. Interestingly, this phenomenon apparently starts in 2006, previous to the beginning of the Great Recession. Although we do not present a formal explanation, the models used allow us to suspect the existence of an unusually high (and transitory) increase in the demand for real money balances.