Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT ::Examinando por Autor "García, John J."

Examinando por Autor "García, John J."

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Análisis comparativo de diferentes esquemas de suficiencia en generación eléctrica: Algunas reflexiones para el mercado eléctrico en Colombia
(Universidad EAFIT, 2016-05-01) Flórez, Mónica; Gómez, Beatriz; García, John J.; mfloreze@eafit.edu.co; bgomezd@eafit.edu.co; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co
The Colombian electricity market has been facing difficulties with the occurrence of El Niño 2015-2016 that showed flaws in the market design. This paper makes an international referencing of different types of electricity market designs focused mainly on the mechanisms used to ensure generation capacity adequacy, describes the current problems and makes some recommendations for the Colombian electricity market based on the advantages, disadvantages and adaptability evidenced in the analyzed markets of Nord Pool, Alberta, PJM, Chile, Brazil and Panama.
Análisis de la integración de mercado eléctricos: El caso de Centroamérica y oportunidades para Colombia
(Universidad EAFIT, 2005-02-15) García, John J.; Rojas Martínez, Isabel Cristina; Velásquez Montoya, Natalia
The integration of the electric market in Central América began to consolidate with the implementation of different stabilizing politics achieving advances in the harmonization of the regulatory frameworks and the creation of institutions that help an adequate process. After establishing networks of bilateral interconnection among the countries, a line is being built, that permits to reach an integrate commerce, minimizing the possibility of crisis in the supply, taking advantage of the complementarity in the energy generation form, competitive prices by the decrease in costs and confidence in the supply. All theses factors could be exploited by Colombia to consolidate its position as exporting country of electricity. Key words:
Análisis de los criterios de eficiencia económica y calidad para la determinación de las tarifas del sector eléctrico en Colombia
(Universidad EAFIT, 2003-08-31) García, John J.; Cadavid Herrera, José Vicente
The subject of the economic and quality efficiency has great importance in the decision on the electric service fairs in Colombia and on the economical analysis of the effects on the social welfare of the consumers and the companies that provides the service. At the beginning of this article is a brief description of the way the electric sector works, and then there is a description of the principles, that according to the law must be considered for such fairs, explaining the economical and quality, efficiency and some experiences in South America regarding the quality criteria.
Análisis económico del mecanismo de respuesta de la demanda en el sector eléctrico colombiano
(Universidad EAFIT, 2017-07-01) García, John J.; Gutierrez, Alejandro; Vargas Tobón, Luisa; Velasquez, Hermilson; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; lvargas9@eafit.edu.co; evelas@eafit.edu.co
This paper is based upon the PJM market Demand Response Program, which it is considered as one of the most successful DR mechanisms over the world. Based on its design, the economic impact that could be achieve if a similar DR program were implemented in the Colombian market was determined. A DR program has been proposed that could achieve 600 MW of capacity in a mature stage. When its impact was took into account in the market price, it was found that for 2015 its impact in the DR dispatch hours could achieve lowering spot price in around 30%. With these results it can be estimated that the system could save about COP130.000 million, regardless of its contribution to the system reliability that, in the past El Niño event (2015-2016), could have reduced blackout risks.
Análisis económico del mecanismo de respuesta de la demanda en el sector eléctrico colombiano (Julio de 2017)
(Universidad EAFIT, 2017-10-09) García, John J.; Gutierrez, Alejandro; Vargas Tobón, Luisa; Velasquez, Hermilson; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; lvargas9@eafit.edu.co; evelas@eafit.edu.co
This paper is based upon the PJM market Demand Response Program, which it is considered as one of the most successful DR mechanisms over the world. Based on its design, the economic impact that could be achieve if a similar DR program were implemented in the Colombian market was determined. A DR program has been proposed that could achieve 600 MW of capacity in a mature stage. When its impact was took into account in the market price, it was found that for 2015 its impact in the DR dispatch hours could achieve lowering spot price in around 30%. With these results it can be estimated that the system could save about COP130.000 million, regardless of its contribution to the system reliability that, in the past El Niño event (2015-2016), could have reduced blackout risks.
Congestión vehicular en Medellín: una posible solución desde la Economía
(Universidad EAFIT, 2016-08-01) García, John J.; Posada, Carlos E.; Corrales, Alejandro; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; cposad25@eafit.edu.co; acorral5@eafit.edu.co
According to the Economic theory, prices are the most accurate mechanism to solution the traffic congestion problem in urban areas. This article presents a diagnosis on the mobility issue in the city of Medellín (Colombia) and a solution is proposed based on Economic theory. The household expenditures in transportation and the choice between public and private transport were analyzed through the method of elasticity. Evidence has been found proving that the prices mechanism is an efficient mechanism to disincentive the usage of private vehicles, since a rise in the expenditure in transport (due to an hypothetic intra- urban toll) results in a lower probability to use private vehicle and a higher probability to use public transportation.
Control corporativo y riqueza de los accionistas en el sector eléctrico europeo
(Universidad EAFIT, 2011-12-15) García, John J.; Trillas, Francesc
This paper analyzes how announcel changes in the corporate control (takeover) of Endesa, Hidrocantábrico and Scottish Power affect their stock market returns and the impact that these events have on the stock market returns of competitors of the target firm. Using an “event study” methodology we find that takeovers positively and significantly affect at the 1% level, the stock market return of the target firm. Results are robust across several econometric specifications as GARCH and MCO models. Also, the results suggest the announcement of the launching of a takeover positively and significantly affects the stock market return of the target firm´s competitors in industries with high market power.
La crisis del sector eléctrico en california 2000–2001: reformas y desintegración vertical
(Universidad EAFIT, 2005-10-15) García, John J.; Medina Sánchez, Ana María
This paper seeks to analyze what factors determine the capital structure of the banking firms in Colombia. With this purpose, the existing literatura about the subject is reviewed and, assuming that the hypothesis of the existence of an optimal capital structure holds, an optimization model of a representative banking firm is implemented to observe how these factors affect the optimal capital structure. Additionally, a panel data model is run to contrast the theoretical results with the empirical evidence for the Colombian banking firms. Finally, some conclusions about the found results are postulated.
Demanda de Internet: El sector mayorista de telecomunicaciones Colombiano
(Universidad EAFIT, 2016-03-28) García, John J.; Posada, Juan P.; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; jposad28@eafit.edu.co
A raíz de la necesidad de conocer las diferentes variables que inciden en los servicios de transporte de datos, la escasez de artículos académicos que describan el comportamiento de la demanda en el sector mayorista y tomando como referencia los trabajos realizados, tanto por Madden & Coble-Neal (2004) como por Karacuka, Haucap & Heimeshoff (2011), se presenta, tanto un modelo de demanda, como un modelo de formación de precios, estimados a través de técnicas de panel de datos a nivel de firmas, con el objetivo de comprender el comportamiento de estas en el mercado Colombiano y cuyos resultados fundamentales son una elasticidad precio de la demanda de 1.1102, una elasticidad inversa de la demanda de 0.2215 y una elasticidad ingreso de 0.0569, para las firmas proveedoras del servicio de internet a usuarios finales.
Determinantes del precio de la vivienda nueva No VIS en Medellín: un modelo estructural
(Universidad EAFIT, 2016-03-28) García, John J.; Díaz, Sebastián; Upegui, Juan C.; Velásquez, Hermilson; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; sdiazmo@eafit.edu.co; jupegui@eafit.edu.co; evelas@eafit.edu.co
We employ a multi-equation structural model of the housing market to analyze the determinants of the price of new housing in Medellin during 2009-2014. The model includes observed variables and unobserved variables, such as costs that are not included in the housing cost index but that still affect prices. In the analysis we employ an industrial organization framework to examine the interaction between microeconomic and macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that employment, economic growth, and public policies (subsidies) affect real housing prices positively, while inflation affects real prices negatively. In addition to the variables typically included in the analysis in prior research, we include several determinants of housing supply, including construction costs, and two market interest rates.
Efectos del cargo por confiabilidad sobre el precio spot de la energía eléctrica en Colombia
(Universidad EAFIT, 2015-01-01) Botero, Juan Pablo; García, John J.; Velásquez, Ermilson; jboter13@eafit.edu.co; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; evelas@eafit.edu.co
This paper considers the effect of electricity generation reliability on the spot price of the electricity market in Colombia, a mechanism implemented in 2006 to encourage existing generators or new investors to increase the installed capacity in the wholesale energy market. We describe the performance of this mechanism in Colombia and analyze the behavior of some structural variables in the operation of this market, such as the ratio between the market demand and the actual availability, El Niño and La Niña, the reservoir level and some regulation measures. The spot price presents high volatility implying that the proper specification corresponds to a regression model with ARCH structure (Engle, 1982). Results show that the reliability charge is positive and statistically significant. Also El Niño has a positive impact on the spot price, due to the large hydraulic share of this market.
Efectos espaciales en la formación de precios de oferta en mercados spot de generación eléctrica
(Universidad EAFIT, 2016-07-01) García, John J.; Moncada, Jhonny; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; jmoncad7@eafit.edu.co
The price bid mechanism in the Colombian electricity market exhibits a strategic behavior, inherent in their oligopolistic market structure, not only for its high hydrological percentage, about 80%, but also because the power plants geographical location, near to the Andean Region. This research designs a spatial weights matrix reflecting characteristics the power plants geographical location, who is incorporated into a spatial Durbin panel to identify the economic geography behaviors, in addition to the fundamentals that explain the prices formation in this market.
Efectos espaciales en la formación de precios en mercados minoristas de Gas Natural Vehicular
(Universidad EAFIT, 2015-07-15) García, John J.; Montenegro, Carlos M.; Velásquez, Hermilson; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; evelas@eafit.edu.co
The gas distribution system for natural gas vehicles (NGV) in the Service Stations (EDS) in Colombia is highly concentrated, which gives the retail distributors market power. The pricing mechanism appears to approximate a Bertrand type of oligopolistic model, with a dominant firm setting the prices. The geographical location of the EDS generates strategies that influence price formation. In this research, a spatial contiguity matrix is designed, which includes socio-economic and distance characteristics, related to the EDS geographic location. We use a spatial panel model of Durbin type, which includes fundamental variables to explain the GNV price formation.
Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on Shareholder Wealth: Event Study for Latin American Airlines
(Universidad EAFIT, 2015-01-01) Cortés, Lina M.; García, John J.; Agudelo, David; lcortesd@eafit.edu.co; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; dagude14@gmail.com
This study analyzes the effectof changes in corporate controlon the way shareholdersbenefit from the announcements of selling and buying airlines, thus contributing to the literature on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in emerging markets. Using a methodologyof event study, including GARCH and OLS models, we find evidence that some selling companies obtain abnormal returns that are statisticallysignificant after the announcement of the M&A. However, when the merger is not strategic, the companies present statisticallysignificant negative abnormal returns. The resultsare not conclusive when analyzing the effecton the valueof the buying companies.
Estimación del precio marginal del sistema eléctrico colombiano: una mirada desde la organización industrial
(Universidad EAFIT, 2014-03-01) Duarte, Ona; García, John J.; onaduarte@gmail.com; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co
This paper has two important goals. The first one is to build a Cournot model that illustrate the strategic behavior of the leader energy generators of the Colombian energy market, using the spot price as a strategic variable to estimate the optimal quantities of the short term energy market. The second goal is to use the quantities estimated to build industrial organizational variables, and with them estimate the spot price using VAR models, that allow an impulse response analysis. A daily series is used for the estimation, which it goes from June of 2010 until November of the same year. The results showed that the storage capacity of the hydraulic companies give them a higher strategic behavior that thermal companies when the demand level is low, but the opposite happens when the demand level is high. It was found that a random shock over the residual demand of the oligopoly and the concentration ratio of the market structure, are reflected in a fluctuated behavior of the spot energy price, this effect can be read as a reaction of the companies to the new circumstances of the market condition.
European energy industry shocks, corporate control and firm's value
(Universidad EAFIT, 2013-11-12) García, John J.; Trillas, Francesc
The deregulation process in the EU electricity sector triggered strategic decisions that led to industry restructuring. This paper presents preliminary evidence of the impact of this process on investors, using event studies and estimation techniques such as least squares and GARCH. Our findings suggest three stylized facts: 1) regulatory reform in Europe was certainly accompanied by a takeover wave, as predicted by Mitchell and Mulherin (1996); 2) mergers and acquisitions had a positive impact on the stock price of target firms, and a much lower and sometimes even a negative impact for the bidding firms; 3) the effect of takeover announcements on the returns of competitors of the merging firms depends on the degree of market power. In countries with high market power (like Spain) competitors significantly increase share returns upon takeover announcements, whereas in countries with lower market power (like England and Wales) returns do not change significantly.
Evidencia empírica de poder de mercado en industrias minoristas de gas natural vehicular.
(2012-05-08) García, John J.; Montenegro, Carlos Mauricio; Velásquez, Ermilson
La alta concentración del mercado minorista de Gas Natural Vehicular -GNV en Colombia permite el ejercicio de poder de mercado. El mecanismo de fijación de precio de venta en las Estaciones de Servicio –EDS’s se asemeja al de un modelo teórico oligopólico de Franja Cuasi-Competitiva, en el cual se identifica una empresa líder en el mercado y otras seguidoras, tomadoras de precio. Mediante el índice Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI) se encontró alto nivel de concentración en la industria y por medio del índice de Lerner se halla el mark-up de beneficios que evidencia el ejercicio de poder de mercado. Además a través de un modelo de Panel de Datos se identifican los determinantes de la formación del precio en esta industria.
Formación del precio de las transacciones internacionales de electricidad entre Colombia y Ecuador
(Universidad EAFIT, 2012-09-15) García, John J.; Gómez Toro, Catalina; Bohórquez, Santiago
This article describes the operation of the international electric transactions between Colombia and Ecuador, its principal regulation and the most important characteristics of both markets paying special attention to the price formation. There is also two econometrics exercises, principal component analysis and beta convergence, to see if there has been price convergence between these two countries showing that there is no price convergence between both markets.
ICP 2005 Construction Prices: Underestimated in Developing Countries?
(Universidad EAFIT, 2013-04-10) Breton, Theodore R.; García, John J.
Construction prices in developing countries in ICP 2005 are lower relative to prices in developed countries than in earlier versions of the ICP. Our estimates of the Colombia/U.S. ratio of prices for office buildings demonstrate that the ICP 2005 price ratio for these countries is substantially underestimated. We confirm the validity of our results by comparing construction component prices in these countries. Since the ICP 2005 estimate of the Colombia/U.S. price ratio is representative of its ratio of construction prices between all developing and developed countries, we suspect there is a problem with the ICP 2005 estimation methodology.
Impacto de la regulación en la eficiencia asignativa del mercado spot eléctrico colombiano
(Universidad EAFIT, 2015-07-15) García, John J.; Arango, Santiago; Ortiz, Andrés F; jgarcia@eafit.edu.co; sarang22@eafit.edu.co; aortizr@eafit.edu.co
This paper uses an ARCH regression model to analyze the effect of several regulatory measures and fundamental factors (the relationship between commercial demand and real availability, El Niño, and water supplies) on the spot price in the Colombian wholesale power market. The results indicate that the regulations established by the Electricity and Gas Regulatory Commission have had a substantial and statistically-significant effect on spot prices. In addition, El Niño and hydro supplies have a positive and negative respectively effect on the spot price, due to the large share of hydropower in this market.

Examinando por Autor "García, John J."

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