Examinando por Autor "Breton, Theodore R."
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Ítem Can Institutions or Education Explain World Poverty? An Augmented Solow Model Provides Some Insights(Elsevier, 2004) Breton, Theodore R.; Universidad EAFIT, Departamento de Economía y Finanzas, Medellín, Colombia.; Escuela de Economía y Finanzas; Economía; Estudios en Economía y EmpresaWhen the Solow model is augmented with variables for institutions and human capital and estimated with national data for rates of investment in education, it can explain most of the variation in cross-country standards of living. The empirical results indicate that human capital is as important as physical capital in the determination of national income and that a high government share of consumption substantially reduces total factor productivity (TFP) and national income. The results also indicate that government integrity is endogenous in the development process and has an uncertain effect on total factor productivity.Ítem Changes in the Effect of Capital and TFP on Output in Penn World Tables 7 and 8: Improvement or Error?(Universidad EAFIT, 2015-01-19) Breton, Theodore R.; ted.breton@gmail.comLower ICP 2005 construction prices in developing countries increase the effect of capital on output in PWT 7.1 and 8.0 and cause negative world TFP growth during 1990-2010 in PWT 8.0. The investment data appear to be more accurate in PWT 6.3.Ítem Cognitive Skills, Schooling Attainment, and Schooling Resources: What Drives Economic Growth?(2009-11-15) Breton, Theodore R.This paper presents evidence that students’ test scores at ages 9 to 15 are not a good proxy for a nation’s stock of human capital. Across countries test scores rise with increases in human capital up to $40,000/adult (2000$), but then decline as human capital increases up to $125,000/adult. Schooling attainment is a better proxy for the human capital stock than test scores, but it is not very useful for statistical analysis because it is not a precise measure. The nation’s stock of human capital, calculated from cumulative investment in schooling, is the schooling measure most correlated with national income.Ítem Development Accounting: Conceptually Flawed and Inconsistent with Empirical Evidence(Universidad EAFIT, 2014-08-20) Breton, Theodore R.; ted.breton@gmail.comDevelopment accounting depends on two simplifying assumptions, that economies can be represented by a common aggregate production function and that aggregate factors of production are paid their social marginal products. An aggregate production function can explain income across countries, but the mathematics of the aggregate production function and the empirical evidence both indicate that aggregate factors are paid a small fraction of their social marginal products. As a consequence, development accounting underestimates the income differences due to human capital and overestimates the differences due to TFP. This error cannot be corrected because human capital’s social marginal product is not observable.Ítem Does investment in schooling raise national income? Evidence from cross-country studies(2011-06-05) Breton, Theodore R.The economics literature identifies three effects of schooling on national income; the direct effect on the earnings of the workers who receive the schooling and the external effects on workers’ earnings and on physical capital due to schooling’s spillover effect on the productivity of these other factors of production. This paper reviews the estimates of the income elasticity of these three effects in the literature and finds that the evidence supports an elasticity of 0.34. The associated marginal rates of return on national investment in schooling in 2000 are found to average about 12 percent in countries with high levels of schooling and about 25 percent in countries with low levels of schooling.Ítem Does Investment in Schooling Raise National Income? Evidence from Cross-Country Studies(Universidad EAFIT, 2011) Breton, Theodore R.; Universidad EAFIT, Escuela de Economía y Finanzas, Departamento de Economía, Medellín, Colombia.; Escuela de Economía y Finanzas; Economía; Estudios en Economía y EmpresaThe economics literature identifies three effects of schooling on national income; the direct effect on the earnings of the workers who receive the schooling and the external effects on workers’ earnings and on physical capital due to schooling’s spillover effect on the productivity of these other factors of production. This paper reviews the estimates of the income elasticity of these three effects in the literature and finds that the evidence supports an elasticity of 0.34. The associated marginal rates of return on national investment in schooling in 2000 are found to average about 12 percent in countries with high levels of schooling and about 25 percent in countries with low levels of schooling.Ítem Education and Growth: Where All the Education Went(Universidad EAFIT, 2016-02-01) Breton, Theodore R.; Siegel Breton, Andrew; tbreton@eafit.edu.coWe investigate why the economics literature often finds a negative relationship between increased schooling and GDP growth over short periods. We show that increases in GDP in 98 countries during five-year intervals are correlated with the increases in adults´ average schooling during the prior 40 years. We find that an additional year of schooling of the work force raised GDP by 7% on average during 1980-2005, but its initial effect on GDP was much smaller. The delayed effect of increased schooling on national productivity explains why recent increases in schooling cannot explain near-term increases in GDP.Ítem Evidence that Capital Formation is Over-Estimated in ICP 2011(Universidad EAFIT, 2015-07-22) Breton, Theodore R.; tbreton@eafit.edu.coUsing the ICP 2011’s cross-country data on input prices and project cost shares, I show that the construction prices in ICP 2011 are substantially underestimated in low and middle income countries. As a consequence, the PPP-adjusted construction in these countries is overestimated on average by about 100% and gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP is overestimated by 25-30%. I also examine the ICP 2005 construction prices and show that there are similar problems with the ICP 2005 data.Ítem Evidence that class size matters in 4th grade mathematics an analysis of TIMSS 2007 data for Colombia.(2012-07-23) Breton, Theodore R.Like students in most developing countries, Colombian students in 4th grade performed poorly in the TIMSS 2007 test of mathematics skills, achieving an average score of 355 relative to an international mean of 500. After controlling for other factors and misreporting error, I find that large classes have substantial adverse effects on student achievement. Increases in class size from 20 to 53 students reduce test scores by about 80 points, or 2.4 points for each additional student in the class. Most likely this is the cumulative effect of class size in grades one to four on achievement in 4th grade.Ítem The External Effect of Urban Schooling Attainment on Workers’ Incomes in Ecuador(Universidad EAFIT, 2014-12-02) Breton, Theodore R.; Jaramillo, Juan Pablo; ted.breton@gmail.com; jpjaramillo25@gmail.comWe estimate the direct and external effects of levels of schooling on personal income in Ecuador in 2011, using data for 69,653 individuals in 567 municipalities. Using a Mincerian model that includes municipal levels of schooling and the size of the municipality and controls for endogeneity, we find that each year of individual schooling raises individual income by 8.5 percent and each year of municipal schooling raises individual income by 2.2 percent. The external effect of an additional year of schooling is larger for workers with more schooling, for those with higher incomes, and for those in more educated municipalities.Ítem Family, Schools, or Culture: What Explains Differences in U.S. Student Achievement Across Ethnic Groups on PISA 2012?(Universidad EAFIT, 2017-12-17) Breton, Theodore R.; tbreton@eafit.edu.coU.S. students in different ethnic groups have very different average scores on the PISA 2012 mathematics and reading tests, with Blacks and Hispanics showing negative gaps relative to White students and Asians showing a positive gap. I investigate whether a student’s family characteristics or the school attended can explain these differences. I find that Hispanic parents’ low average education explains the largest share of the Hispanic achievement gap. In contrast, most of the larger negative gap for Blacks and the positive gap for Asians cannot be explained by family characteristics or the school they attend. Attendance at “bad” schools explains relatively little of the negative gaps, but Black students’ mathematics scores are substantially lower when they compose more than 50% of the class, which is not the case for Hispanic students. This evidence suggests that ethnic group culture is an important cause of Black and Asian student achievement gaps.Ítem Higher Test Scores or More Schooling? Another Look at the Causes of Economic Growth(Universidad EAFIT, 2013-11-05) Breton, Theodore R.; ted.breton@gmail.comI use a dynamic augmented Solow model to estimate the effects of students’ test scores and investment in schooling on economic growth rates in 49 countries during 1985-2005. In the complete data set, either average test scores or investment in schooling explain economic growth rates, and more of either causes growth. Further analysis reveals that higher test scores only raised growth rates in countries with low average levels of schooling. In countries with more than 7.5 years of schooling attainment in 1985, more investment in schooling raised growth rates, but higher average test scores did not.Ítem Human capital and growth in japan since 1970: converging to the steady state in a 1% world.(2014-11-20) Breton, Theodore R.Annual growth in GDP/adult in Japan has declined from over 10% in 1969 to an average of 1% since the financial crisis in 1991. I show that a dynamic Solow growth model, augmented with human capital, weekly labor-hours, and oil prices, explains Japan’s annual growth rates from 1969 to 2007 as conditional convergence to a steady-state rate of 1%/year. Each additional year of average adult schooling attainment raised GDP/adult directly and indirectly by 20 percent, and weekly hours worked had an output elasticity of 0.5. The marginal product of schooling was double the marginal product of physical capital.Ítem A Human Capital Theory of Growth: New Evidence for an Old Idea(Universidad EAFIT, 2014-01-01) Breton, Theodore R.; ted.breton@gmail.comIn 1960 Theodore Schultz expounded a human capital theory of economic growth that includes three elements: 1) Countries without much human capital cannot manage physical capital effectively, 2) Economic growth can only proceed if physical capital and human capital rise together, and 3) Human capital is the factor most likely to limit growth. I specify Schultz’s theory mathematically and test it in periods when global financial capital was highly mobile. I find that in 1870, 1910, and 2000, the average schooling attainment of the adult population largely determined the stock of physical capital/capita and GDP/capita in 42 market economies.Ítem ICP 2005 Construction Prices: Underestimated in Developing Countries?(Universidad EAFIT, 2013-04-10) Breton, Theodore R.; García, John J.Construction prices in developing countries in ICP 2005 are lower relative to prices in developed countries than in earlier versions of the ICP. Our estimates of the Colombia/U.S. ratio of prices for office buildings demonstrate that the ICP 2005 price ratio for these countries is substantially underestimated. We confirm the validity of our results by comparing construction component prices in these countries. Since the ICP 2005 estimate of the Colombia/U.S. price ratio is representative of its ratio of construction prices between all developing and developed countries, we suspect there is a problem with the ICP 2005 estimation methodology.Ítem Increases in human capital and growth: new data, more conclusive results.(2012-08-27) Breton, Theodore R.Using a new data set for human capital/adult, I show that changes in human capital cause economic growth in 56 countries over the 1985 to 2005 period. I show that these results are superior to results using average schooling attainment.Ítem Low Test Scores in Latin America: Poor Schools, Poor Families, or Something Else?(Universidad EAFIT, 2016-06-19) Breton, Theodore R.; Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo; tbreton@eafit.edu.co; gcanavir@eafit.edu.coLatin American students consistently score low on international tests of cognitive skills. In the PISA 2012 results, students in seven Latin American countries had an average score of 395, or about 100 points lower than the average score of 497 in four Scandinavian countries. We examine why Latin American scores are lower and conclude that 50 points are explained by Latin American families’ lower average educational and socioeconomic characteristics, 25 points are explained by Latin America’s weak cultural orientation toward reading books, and the remaining 25 points are explained by the lower effectiveness of educational systems in teaching cognitive skills.Ítem Penn world table 7.0: are the data flawed?(2012-05-08) Breton, Theodore R.Penn World Table (PWT) 7.0 is the newest PWT data set, based in part on benchmarked prices collected in 2005. In theory the data in PWT 7.0 should be more accurate than the data in PWT 6.3 since 1996 and similar in earlier years. I show that PWT 7.0 GDP/capita and price data for 1970 to 1996 deviate substantially from prior PWT data that are benchmarked to prices across countries for those years. I conclude that overall the PWT 7.0 data are much less accurate than the data in PWT 6.2 and 6.3.Ítem Penn World Table 7.0: Are the data flawed?(Elsevier, 2013) Breton, Theodore R.; Departamento de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, Colombia; Escuela de Economía y Finanzas; Economía; Estudios en Economía y EmpresaPWT 7.0 data deviate substantially from PWT 6.3 data because the benchmarked prices for 1970 to 1996 used in PWT 6.3 were entirely discarded. PWT 7.0 data are unreliable and appear to be much less accurate than PWT 6.3 data.Ítem The Quality vs. the Quantity of Schooling: What Drives Economic Growth?(Universidad EAFIT, 2011-01-19) Breton, Theodore R.; ted.breton@gmail.comThis paper challenges Hanushek and Woessmann’s [2008] contention that the quality and not the quantity of schooling determines a nation’s rate of economic growth. I first show that their statistical analysis is flawed. I then show that when a nation’s average test scores and average schooling attainment are included in a national income model, both measures explain income differences, but schooling attainment has greater statistical significance. The high correlation between a nation’s average schooling attainment, cumulative investment in schooling, and average tests scores indicates that average schooling attainment implicitly measures the quality as well as the quantity of schooling.