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An approach to make statistical forecasting of products with stationary/seasonal patterns
(Production and Operations Management Society (POMS), 2014-05-09) Castro-Zuluaga, Carlos A.; Botero-Escobar, Sara C.; Castro-Zuluaga, Carlos A.; Botero-Escobar, Sara C.; Universidad EAFIT. Grupo de Investigación Gestión de Producción y Logística; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ingeniería de Producción; ccastro@eafit.edu.co; sboter11@eafit.edu.co; Gestión de Producción y Logística
At any company there are hundreds, maybe thousands of products that must be forecasted with the best accuracy, in order to make a good demand management process, which are required at all planning levels in a company -- Statistical forecasting must be done fast and sometimes there are not enough resources to do it well -- In In this paper we make a proposal of an approach to define the parameter of the exponential smoothing model for products with a behavior pattern stationary or seasonal/stationary in the historical data, to obtain “good forecasting" A numerical example is used to show the effectiveness of the proposed method