2026-05-082026https://hdl.handle.net/10784/38031Cadastral modernization — updating assessed property values after decades of stagnation — creates a structural dilemma for local governments: better data generates larger fiscal shocks that can trigger the taxpayer resistance that undoes the reform itself. This paper develops a decision-support framework that resolves this dilemma by optimizing property tax rate schedules to be simultaneously revenue-adequate, equity-preserving, and legally compliant under taxpayer-protection constraints. Applied to 929,703 properties across 88 municipalities in Antioquia, Colombia — where a 2024–2025 update nearly doubled the aggregate tax base — three findings emerge. First, the equity-revenue trade-off is far more favorable than current ordinances imply: the median municipality can increase revenue by 7.6% while reducing the residential tax burden. Second, current rate schedules are structurally obsolete and latently regressive, averaging 50 tariff combinations calibrated to 1990s nominal property values. Third, from a fiscal restructuring perspective, the simpler and cheaper land-value-only catch-up update mechanism (PND catch-up) is associated with comparable or higher fiscal restructuring potential than full cadastral modernization — a finding about rate-design returns, not about the overall value of comprehensive modernization. The framework is replicable by any subnational government with access to digitized property-level cadastral records, retrievable rate ordinances, and administrative tax-liability data of adequate quality.application/pdfengThe Property Tax Modernization Dilemma: A Decision-Support Framework for Equity and Revenue Under Cadastral Reform<resourceType xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" resourceTypeGeneral="Other">info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper</resourceType><rights xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3">info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess</rights><subject xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" subjectScheme="keyword">Property tax</subject><subject xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" subjectScheme="keyword">cadastral modernization</subject><subject xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" subjectScheme="keyword">fiscal shock</subject><subject xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" subjectScheme="keyword">subnational fiscal capacity</subject><subject xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" subjectScheme="keyword">decision-support framework</subject><subject xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" subjectScheme="keyword">equity-revenue trade-off</subject><subject xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" subjectScheme="keyword">Colombia</subject><subject xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" subjectScheme="keyword">linear programming</subject><rights xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3">Acceso abierto</rights><date xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" dateType="Accepted">2026-05-08</date><alternateIdentifier xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" alternateIdentifierType="jel">H71</alternateIdentifier><alternateIdentifier xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" alternateIdentifierType="jel">H72</alternateIdentifier><alternateIdentifier xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" alternateIdentifierType="jel">R51</alternateIdentifier><alternateIdentifier xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" alternateIdentifierType="jel">C61</alternateIdentifier><creator xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" xmlns:dspace="http://www.dspace.org/xmlns/dspace/dim"><creatorName>Muñoz-Mora, Juan Carlos</creatorName></creator><creator xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" xmlns:dspace="http://www.dspace.org/xmlns/dspace/dim"><creatorName>Almonacid, Mónica</creatorName></creator><creator xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" xmlns:dspace="http://www.dspace.org/xmlns/dspace/dim"><creatorName>Peña, Laura</creatorName></creator><alternateIdentifier xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" alternateIdentifierType="reponame">reponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT</alternateIdentifier><alternateIdentifier xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" alternateIdentifierType="instname">instname:Universidad EAFIT</alternateIdentifier><alternateIdentifier xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3" alternateIdentifierType="repourl">repourl:https://repository.eafit.edu.co</alternateIdentifier><rights xmlns="http://datacite.org/schema/kernel-3">http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2</rights>