Bases para la modelación de epidemias: El caso del síndrome respiratorio agudo severo en Canadá

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dc.citation.journalTitleRevista de salud pública (Bogotá, Colombia)
dc.contributor.authorHincapié, D.
dc.contributor.authorOspina, J.
dc.contributor.departmentUniversidad EAFIT. Departamento de Cienciasspa
dc.contributor.researchgroupLógica y Computaciónspa
dc.creatorHincapié, D.
dc.creatorOspina, J.
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-26T21:32:04Z
dc.date.available2021-03-26T21:32:04Z
dc.date.issued2007-01-01
dc.description.abstractObjective: Severe acute respiratory syndrome propagation in Canada during 2003 is analysed by means of simple models, comparing the influence of isolation measures on two epidemic waves. Methods: Deterministic susceptible-infected and susceptible-infected-removed models were used for both epidemic waves, using official published information. NLREG 6.2 was used for estimating deterministic parameters and analytical solutions were obtained with Maple 9 software. Dynamical indicators were obtained for the epidemic. Results: Suitable adjustment of the data was observed with both models, but smaller adjustment was observed during the second wave with the non- removed model. The highest rate of infectiousness was shown (35 new cases per 10 000 susceptible people) during the second wave (with R0 near to one), in spite of presenting greater incidence (8.8 cases per day), compensated for by a high rate of removal (11,5 cases per day) which lasted less than the epidemic (11,1 days), and a lower rate of attack (1 case per each 100 susceptible people). Conclusions: The susceptible-infected model can be useful during an epidemic's initial phase (prior to removal); however, closer monitoring of an epidemic's development is required for modelling the strength of removal and deriving useful information for decision-making.eng
dc.identifierhttps://eafit.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=1880
dc.identifier.doi10.1590/S0124-00642007000100012
dc.identifier.issn01240064
dc.identifier.otherPUBMED;17502969
dc.identifier.otherSCOPUS;2-s2.0-34249088969
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10784/27334
dc.languagespa
dc.publisherUniversidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.relation.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-34249088969&partnerID=40&md5=c7cd0e866c8cdf29393e2c332b3d7735
dc.rightshttps://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/0124-0064
dc.sourceRevista de salud pública (Bogotá, Colombia)
dc.subjectCanadaeng
dc.subjectSevere acute respiratory syndromeeng
dc.subjectTheoretical modeleng
dc.titleBases para la modelación de epidemias: El caso del síndrome respiratorio agudo severo en Canadáspa
dc.typearticleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioneng
dc.typepublishedVersioneng
dc.type.localArtículospa

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