Stratifying the potential local transmission of Zika in municipalities of Antioquia, Colombia

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dc.citation.journalTitleTROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH
dc.contributor.authorOspina J.
dc.contributor.authorHincapie-Palacio D.
dc.contributor.authorOchoa J.
dc.contributor.authorMolina A.
dc.contributor.authorRúa G.
dc.contributor.authorPájaro D.
dc.contributor.authorArrubla M.
dc.contributor.authorAlmanza R.
dc.contributor.authorParedes M.
dc.contributor.authorMubayi A.
dc.contributor.departmentUniversidad EAFIT. Departamento de Cienciasspa
dc.contributor.researchgroupLógica y Computaciónspa
dc.creatorOspina J.
dc.creatorHincapie-Palacio D.
dc.creatorOchoa J.
dc.creatorMolina A.
dc.creatorRúa G.
dc.creatorPájaro D.
dc.creatorArrubla M.
dc.creatorAlmanza R.
dc.creatorParedes M.
dc.creatorMubayi A.
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-26T21:32:05Z
dc.date.available2021-03-26T21:32:05Z
dc.date.issued2017-10-01
dc.description.abstractOBJECTIVE To stratify and understand the potential transmission processes of Zika virus in Colombia, in order to effectively address the efforts on surveillance and disease control. METHODS We compare R-0 of Zika for municipalities based on data from the regional surveillance system of Antioquia, Colombia. The basic reproduction number (R-0) and its 95% confidence intervals were estimated from an SIR model with implicit vector dynamics, in terms of recovered individuals in each time unit, using an approximate solution. These parameters were estimated fitting the solution of the model to the daily cumulative frequency of each Zika case according to symptoms onset date relative to the index case reported to the local surveillance system. RESULTS R-0 was estimated for 20 municipalities with a median of 30 000 inhabitants, all located less than 2200 m above sea level. The reported cases ranged from 17 to 347 between these municipalities within 4 months (January to April of 2016). The results suggest that 15 municipalities had a high transmission potential (R-0 > 1), whereas in five municipality transmissions were potentially not sustaining (R-0 < 1), although the upper bound of the confidence interval of the R-0 for 3 of these 5 was greater than one, indicating the possibility of an outbreak later on. CONCLUSION The study identified high-risk municipalities (R-0 > 1) and provide a technique to optimise surveillance and control of Zika. Health authorities should promote the collection, analysis, modelling and sharing of anonymous data onto individual cases to estimate R-0.eng
dc.identifierhttps://eafit.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=7526
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/tmi.12924
dc.identifier.issn13602276
dc.identifier.issn13653156
dc.identifier.otherWOS;000412120000004
dc.identifier.otherPUBMED;28686321
dc.identifier.otherSCOPUS;2-s2.0-85030656157
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10784/27348
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd
dc.relation.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85030656157&doi=10.1111%2ftmi.12924&partnerID=40&md5=35ec94e1dbafb8a0a26d39012018bddb
dc.rightshttps://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/1360-2276
dc.sourceTROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH
dc.subjectChlorine compoundseng
dc.subjectChromiumeng
dc.subjectChromium compoundseng
dc.subjectCrystal structureeng
dc.subjectCrystal symmetryeng
dc.subjectElectronic propertieseng
dc.subjectElectronic structureeng
dc.subjectNitrideseng
dc.subjectNitrogen compoundseng
dc.subjectSodium compoundseng
dc.subjectTopologyeng
dc.subjectZinc sulfideeng
dc.subjectB3LYP functionaleng
dc.subjectBond critical pointseng
dc.subjectChromium nitrideeng
dc.subjectConducting behavioreng
dc.subjectCrystal-field splittingeng
dc.subjectDensity of electronic stateeng
dc.subjectElectronic dispersionseng
dc.subjectTopological analysiseng
dc.subjectDensity functional theoryeng
dc.titleStratifying the potential local transmission of Zika in municipalities of Antioquia, Colombiaeng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioneng
dc.typepublishedVersioneng
dc.type.localArtículospa

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