Deterministic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) models applied to varicella outbreaks.

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dc.citation.journalTitleEPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
dc.contributor.authorGiraldo JO
dc.contributor.authorPalacio DH
dc.contributor.departmentUniversidad EAFIT. Departamento de Cienciasspa
dc.contributor.researchgroupLógica y Computaciónspa
dc.creatorGiraldo JO
dc.creatorPalacio DH
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-26T21:32:03Z
dc.date.available2021-03-26T21:32:03Z
dc.date.issued2008-05-01
dc.description.abstractDeterministic SIR models were applied to simulate Susceptible-Infected-Removed and to estimate the threshold condition for varicella outbreaks in children, reported in Medellin, Colombia. The expected numbers of susceptible, infected and removed individuals were compared with observed cases from notification of varicella outbreaks to the local Board of Health and from survey data. The threshold condition was estimated by the basic reproductive ratio and by the relative removal rate, through which measures for preventing and curtailing the outbreaks were identified. The model demonstrated a reasonable fit to the observations, except in two of the six outbreaks which probably reflected under-registration of cases. In order to have prevented these outbreaks, between 4.4% and 52.9% of the susceptible population should have been vaccinated assuming an 85% vaccine effectiveness. Similarly, isolation of affected children should have been increased to between 4.3% and 44.8% per week.eng
dc.identifierhttps://eafit.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=1534
dc.identifier.doi10.1017/S0950268807009260
dc.identifier.issn09502688
dc.identifier.issn14694409
dc.identifier.otherWOS;000259198400011
dc.identifier.otherPUBMED;17655783
dc.identifier.otherSCOPUS;2-s2.0-41549108513
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10784/27327
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherCAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
dc.relation.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-41549108513&doi=10.1017%2fS0950268807009260&partnerID=40&md5=8284df1e4614b099f401a95b1a78b379
dc.rightshttps://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/0950-2688
dc.sourceEPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
dc.subjectchickenpox vaccineeng
dc.subjectarticleeng
dc.subjectbiological modeleng
dc.subjectchickenpoxeng
dc.subjectchildeng
dc.subjectchildhood diseaseeng
dc.subjectclinical effectivenesseng
dc.subjectColombiaeng
dc.subjectepidemiceng
dc.subjectfemaleeng
dc.subjecthealth surveyeng
dc.subjecthumaneng
dc.subjectinfection preventioneng
dc.subjectinfection sensitivityeng
dc.subjectmaleeng
dc.subjectvaccinationeng
dc.subjectVaricella zoster viruseng
dc.subjectChickenpoxeng
dc.subjectChickenpox Vaccineeng
dc.subjectChildeng
dc.subjectChild, Preschooleng
dc.subjectColombiaeng
dc.subjectDisease Outbreakseng
dc.subjectFemaleeng
dc.subjectHumanseng
dc.subjectIncidenceeng
dc.subjectMaleeng
dc.subjectModels, Theoreticaleng
dc.subjectPatient Isolationeng
dc.titleDeterministic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) models applied to varicella outbreaks.eng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioneng
dc.typepublishedVersioneng
dc.type.localArtículospa

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