Understanding epidemics from mathematical models: Details of the 2010 dengue epidemic in Bello (Antioquia, Colombia)

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dc.citation.journalTitleAPPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
dc.contributor.authorLizarralde-Bejarano, D.P.
dc.contributor.authorArboleda-Sánchez, S.
dc.contributor.authorPuerta-Yepes, M.E.
dc.contributor.departmentUniversidad EAFIT. Departamento de Cienciasspa
dc.contributor.researchgroupMatemáticas y Aplicacionesspa
dc.creatorLizarralde-Bejarano, D.P.
dc.creatorArboleda-Sánchez, S.
dc.creatorPuerta-Yepes, M.E.
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-12T14:04:21Z
dc.date.available2021-04-12T14:04:21Z
dc.date.issued2017-03-01
dc.description.abstractDengue is the most threatening vector-borne viral disease in Colombia. At the moment, there is no treatment or vaccine available for its control or prevention; therefore, the main measure is to exert control over mosquito population. To reduce the economic impact of control measures, it is important to focus on specific characteristics related to local dengue epidemiology at the local level, and know the main factors involved in an epidemic. To this end, we used a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations and experimental data regarding mosquito populations from Bello (Antioquia, Colombia) to simulate the epidemic occurred in 2010. The results showed that the parameters to which the incidence of dengue cases are most sensitive are the biting and mortality rates of adult mosquitoes as well as the virus transmission probabilities. Finally, we found that the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) of this epidemic was between 1.5 and 2.7, with an infection force (?) of 0.061, meaning that R0 values slightly above one are sufficient to result in a significant dengue outbreak in this region. © 2016 Elsevier Inc.eng
dc.identifierhttps://eafit.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=6189
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.apm.2016.11.022
dc.identifier.issn0307904X
dc.identifier.otherWOS;000392792500038
dc.identifier.otherSCOPUS;2-s2.0-85006839793
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10784/27701
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherElsevier Inc.
dc.relation.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85006839793&doi=10.1016%2fj.apm.2016.11.022&partnerID=40&md5=01fc6d58e8b7d361510810fde6eaefd5
dc.rightshttps://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/0307-904X
dc.sourceAPPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
dc.subjectDifferential equationseng
dc.subjectEpidemiologyeng
dc.subjectMathematical modelseng
dc.subjectOrdinary differential equationseng
dc.subjectPopulation statisticseng
dc.subjectViruseseng
dc.subjectBasic reproductive numbereng
dc.subjectControl measureseng
dc.subjectDengue epidemiceng
dc.subjectEconomic impactseng
dc.subjectInfection forceeng
dc.subjectMosquito populationseng
dc.subjectReproductive basic numbereng
dc.subjectVirus transmissioneng
dc.subjectDisease controleng
dc.titleUnderstanding epidemics from mathematical models: Details of the 2010 dengue epidemic in Bello (Antioquia, Colombia)eng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleeng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioneng
dc.typepublishedVersioneng
dc.type.localArtículospa

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