Prediction of Federal Funds Target Rate: a dynamic logistic Bayesian Model averaging approach

Abstract

In this paper we examine which macroeconomic and financial variables have most predictive power for the target repo rate decisions made by the Federal Reserve -- We conduct the analysis for the FOMC decisions during the period June 1998-April 2015 using dynamic logistic models with dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging that allows to perform predictions in real-time with great flexibility -- The computational burden of the algorithm is reduced by adapting a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition: MC3 -- We found that the outcome of the FOMC meetings during the sample period are predicted well: Logistic DMA-Up and Dynamic Logit-Up models present hit ratios of 87,2 and 88,7; meanwhile, hit ratios for the Logistic DMA-Down and Dynamic Logit-Down models are 79,8 and 68,0, respectively