Education and Growth: Where All the Education Went

Abstract

We investigate why the economics literature often finds a negative relationship between increased schooling and GDP growth over short periods. We show that increases in GDP in 98 countries during five-year intervals are correlated with the increases in adults´ average schooling during the prior 40 years. We find that an additional year of schooling of the work force raised GDP by 7% on average during 1980-2005, but its initial effect on GDP was much smaller. The delayed effect of increased schooling on national productivity explains why recent increases in schooling cannot explain near-term increases in GDP.