Identificación de escenarios prospectivos y líneas de acción para el desarrollo del sector de motocicletas colombiano
López Cañas, C.A.
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The most probable and desirable prospective scenarios in the industry of assembly of motorcycles in Colombia were identified in 2004 with projection to 2012. The chances of economic development for this subsector were evaluated, identifying four prospective scenarios with this time horizon in order to get a glimpse of the actions necessary for their development. There was an interaction with various actors, obtaining a knowledge of its structure, problems and expectations. The analysis of information in 2004 for the construction of prospective scenarios to 2012 was obtained through surveys, interviews and workshops with stakeholders of the sector. The result in 2004 was the identification of four scenarios and their possible and desirable characteristics to the year 2012: Disorder: Policies, regulations and unfavorable regulation and low industry integration Wasteful: Policies, regulations and unfavorable regulation, significant growth and high industry integration. Paradise: Policies, regulations and supportive regulation, significant growth and high industry integration. Selfishness: Policies, regulations and a favorable regulation and low industry integration. In 2016 a review of the status of the industry covering the period between 2012 and 2015 is done and what is seen in relation to the issues raised in the year 2004, has to do with the fact that there are elements of Wasteful and the Paradise scenarios, since historical records show an increasing in sales and also actions of integration among the various players in the industry, but still there is no clear policy for this important means of transport in Colombia. © 2017.
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