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dc.creatorOspina, J.
dc.creatorHincapié-Palacio, D.
dc.date.available2021-03-26T21:35:21Z
dc.date.issued2016-05-13
dc.identifierhttps://eafit.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=5298
dc.identifierhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84984950704&doi=10.1117%2f12.2222129&partnerID=40&md5=73ccc7c7faa8777ff6e4f46f4f64e7fe
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10784/27428
dc.description.abstractWe estimate the critical proportion of immunity (Pc) to control hepatitis B in Medellin - Colombia, based on a random population survey of 2077 individuals of 6-64 years of age. The force of infection (Fi) was estimated according to empirical data of susceptibility by age S(a), assuming a quadratic expression. Parameters were estimated by adjusting data to a nonlinear regression. Fi was defined by -(ds(a)/da)/s(a) and according to the form of the empirical curve S(a) we assume a quadratic expression given by S(a)= Ea2+Ba+C. Then we have the explicit expression for the accumulated Fi by age given by F(a) = -a(Ea+B)/c. The expression of average infection age A is obtained as A = L + EL3/(3C)+BL2/(2C) and the basic reproductive number R-0 is obtained as R-0 = 1 + 6C/(6C+2EL2+3BL). From the las result we obtain the Pc given by Pc=6C/(12C+2EL2+3BL). Numerical simulations were performed with the age-susceptibility proportion and initial values (a=0.02, b=20, c=100), obtaining an adjusted coefficient of multiple determination of 64.83%. According to the best estimate, the algebraic expressions for S(a) and the Fi were derived. Using the result of Fi, we obtain A = 30, L = 85; R-0 CI 95%: 1.42 - 1.64 and Pc: 0-0.29. These results indicate that at the worst case, to maintain control of the disease should be immunes at least 30% of susceptible individuals. Similar results were obtained by sex and residential area.
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherSPIE-INT SOC OPTICAL ENGINEERING
dc.relationDOI;10.1117/12.2222129
dc.relationWOS;000387732700022
dc.relationSCOPUS;2-s2.0-84984950704
dc.rightshttps://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/0277-786X
dc.sourceProceedings of SPIE
dc.sourceISSN: 0277786X
dc.sourceISSN: 1996756X
dc.subjectTheoretical models; hepatitis B; basic reproductive number; herd immunity; seroepidemiologic studies; Colombia
dc.titleThe Critical Proportion of Immune Individuals needed to Control Hepatitis B
dc.typeProceedings Paper
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-26T21:35:21Z


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