Examinando por Materia "vaccination"

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    Ítem
    Deterministic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) models applied to varicella outbreaks.
    (CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2008-05-01) Giraldo JO; Palacio DH; Giraldo JO; Palacio DH; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Lógica y Computación
    Deterministic SIR models were applied to simulate Susceptible-Infected-Removed and to estimate the threshold condition for varicella outbreaks in children, reported in Medellin, Colombia. The expected numbers of susceptible, infected and removed individuals were compared with observed cases from notification of varicella outbreaks to the local Board of Health and from survey data. The threshold condition was estimated by the basic reproductive ratio and by the relative removal rate, through which measures for preventing and curtailing the outbreaks were identified. The model demonstrated a reasonable fit to the observations, except in two of the six outbreaks which probably reflected under-registration of cases. In order to have prevented these outbreaks, between 4.4% and 52.9% of the susceptible population should have been vaccinated assuming an 85% vaccine effectiveness. Similarly, isolation of affected children should have been increased to between 4.3% and 44.8% per week.
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    Ítem
    Simulación del nivel de eliminación de sarampión y rubéola según la estratificación e interacción social
    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2010-01-01) Hincapié-Palacio, D.; Ospina-Giraldo, J.; Gómez-Arias, R.D.; Uyi-Afuwape, A.; Chowell-Puente, G.; Hincapié-Palacio, D.; Ospina-Giraldo, J.; Gómez-Arias, R.D.; Uyi-Afuwape, A.; Chowell-Puente, G.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Lógica y Computación
    Objective The study was aimed at comparing measles and rubella disease elimination levels in a homogeneous and heterogeneous population according to socioeconomic status with interactions amongst low- and high-income individuals and diversity in the average number of contacts amongst them. Methods Effective reproductive rate simulations were deduced from a susceptibleinfected-recovered (SIR) mathematical model according to different immunization rates using measles (1980 and 2005) and rubella (1998 and 2005) incidence data from Latin-America and the Caribbean. Low- and high-income individuals' social interaction and their average number of contacts were analysed by bipartite random network analysis. MAPLE 12 (Maplesoft Inc, Ontario Canada) software was used for making the simulations. Results The progress made in eliminating both diseases between both periods of time was reproduced in the socially-homogeneous population. Measles (2005) would be eliminated in high- and low-income groups; however, it would only be achieved in rubella (2005) if there were a high immunity rate amongst the low-income group. If the average number of contacts were varied, then rubella would not be eliminated, even with a 95 % immunity rate. Conclusion Monitoring the elimination level in diseases like measles and rubella requires that socio-economic status be considered as well as the population's interaction pattern. Special attention should be paid to communities having diversity in their average number of contacts occurring in confined spaces such as displaced communities, prisons, educational establishments, or hospitals.