Examinando por Materia "rubella"

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    Ítem
    Herd immunity against rubella according to a survey of the population in Medellin, Colombia
    (PAN AMER HEALTH ORGANIZATION, 2012-08-01) Hincapie Palacio, Doracelly; Ospina Giraldo, Juan; Lenis Ballesteros, Viviana; Ospina Ospina, Marta C.; Arroyave Cadavid, Marta; Hoyos Munoz, Nora; Almanza Payares, Rita; Hincapie Palacio, Doracelly; Ospina Giraldo, Juan; Lenis Ballesteros, Viviana; Ospina Ospina, Marta C.; Arroyave Cadavid, Marta; Hoyos Munoz, Nora; Almanza Payares, Rita; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Lógica y Computación
    Objective. Calculate the critical proportion (P-c) for achieving herd immunity based on a 2009 population study conducted in Medellin, Colombia, by age, globally and disaggregated by sex, location, and socioeconomic stratum. Methods. A survey of seroprevalence in the population was conducted by means of a random sample of 2 124 individuals aged 6 to 64 that was representative of age, sex, and location. The basic reproduction number was estimated using a quadratic regression of the average IgG titers for rubella by age in unvaccinated individuals with titers greater than or equal to 15 IU/ml. The effective reproduction number (R-e) was calculated with the data on the weighted proportion of protection by age, sex, location, and socioeconomic stratum. Results. Overall, the P-c was 90.0% (95% CI, 88.6-95.2%) and the R-e was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.8-1.8), for a weighted proportion of protection of 89.4% (95% CI, 86.891.6%). Protection was lower than the expected P-c in both sexes, in high and low socioeconomic strata, and in the rural area. In the urban area, protection was greater than the P-c (89.4%, with a 95% CI, 86.6-91.7%, compared to 87.4% and a 95% CI, 85.2-87.8%). Conclusions. The urban area has made progress toward herd immunity, but the overall proportion of protection in women, the rural area, and the high socioeconomic strata must be increased. The effective number may be greater than one, indicating the potential for the spread of the disease.
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    Ítem
    Simulación del nivel de eliminación de sarampión y rubéola según la estratificación e interacción social
    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2010-01-01) Hincapié-Palacio, D.; Ospina-Giraldo, J.; Gómez-Arias, R.D.; Uyi-Afuwape, A.; Chowell-Puente, G.; Hincapié-Palacio, D.; Ospina-Giraldo, J.; Gómez-Arias, R.D.; Uyi-Afuwape, A.; Chowell-Puente, G.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Lógica y Computación
    Objective The study was aimed at comparing measles and rubella disease elimination levels in a homogeneous and heterogeneous population according to socioeconomic status with interactions amongst low- and high-income individuals and diversity in the average number of contacts amongst them. Methods Effective reproductive rate simulations were deduced from a susceptibleinfected-recovered (SIR) mathematical model according to different immunization rates using measles (1980 and 2005) and rubella (1998 and 2005) incidence data from Latin-America and the Caribbean. Low- and high-income individuals' social interaction and their average number of contacts were analysed by bipartite random network analysis. MAPLE 12 (Maplesoft Inc, Ontario Canada) software was used for making the simulations. Results The progress made in eliminating both diseases between both periods of time was reproduced in the socially-homogeneous population. Measles (2005) would be eliminated in high- and low-income groups; however, it would only be achieved in rubella (2005) if there were a high immunity rate amongst the low-income group. If the average number of contacts were varied, then rubella would not be eliminated, even with a 95 % immunity rate. Conclusion Monitoring the elimination level in diseases like measles and rubella requires that socio-economic status be considered as well as the population's interaction pattern. Special attention should be paid to communities having diversity in their average number of contacts occurring in confined spaces such as displaced communities, prisons, educational establishments, or hospitals.