Examinando por Materia "Volumen útil diario"

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    Análisis del volumen útil diario del embalse de El Peñol de 2010 a 2023 a partir de datos funcionales
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Giraldo Gómez, Sebastián; Ortiz Arias, Santiago
    This study analyzes the hydroelectric behavior of the El Peñol reservoir, with an emphasis on its historical dynamics. Comparisons were made with four Colombian reservoirs: El Peñol, Playas, Punchiná, and San Lorenzo. To achieve this, functional statistical techniques were applied to historical data from the period 2010-2023 provided by XM, along with information on the El Niño and La Niña phenomena obtained from the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Environmental Studies (IDEAM). The variables analyzed include the turbined volume, daily usable volume, total energy generation, and market prices, with the main objective of identifying temporal patterns, seasonal trends, and functional relationships between these variables. The analysis included the calculation of functional means, the estimation of functional variances, and the application of functional principal component analysis (functional PCA). These techniques made it possible to reduce the dimensionality of the data and understand the main factors influencing hydroelectric behavior. As part of the methodology, Fourier smoothing was used to represent the variables as continuous curves, facilitating noise removal and capturing underlying trends. This approach allowed for functional comparisons between the reservoirs, highlighting both similarities and differences in their operation. The results of this functional analysis provide a solid foundation for interpreting hydrological patterns in the Antioquia region, with special attention to the El Peñol reservoir and its impact on regional hydroelectric efficiency. This reservoir, one of the most important in the country, faces significant challenges arising from fluctuations in water availability and the effects of climate change, emphasizing the need for sustainable management strategies. In this context, functional indicators were developed to evaluate the sustainability of the reservoir’s operation and propose improvements in its management. This study contributes to the advancement of specific analytical tools for hydroelectric management in Colombia, also establishing a precedent for future research aimed at reservoirs with similar characteristics, both regionally and internationally.