Examinando por Materia "Quantitative Analysis"

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    Ítem
    Análisis probabilístico de los riesgos asociados a los imprevistos en los flujos de caja de proyectos inmobiliarios de la ciudad de Medellín
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2019) Roldan Arango, Daniel Alexander; Betancur Díaz, Edwin Marino; Gómez Salazar, Elkin Arcesio
    During the development of a real estate investment project, unexpected events usually happen, in such way that, if materialized, can cause adverse or beneficial effects for the project and for the company that undertakes it. Therefore, an adequate identification and management of the risks is necessary, in order to diminish the negative impacts and take advantage of the positive ones, to make the right decisions and reach the strategic objectives. This paper mainly presents the influence of negative risks, associated with the unforeseen events of stratum 4 real estate projects in the city of Medellín, in the preinvestment phase, based on the financial valuation, in order to study how to obtain the pre-feasibility results with a rational method through a probabilistic analysis, in contrast to the traditional method that does not take risks into consideration. PESTEL methodology is used, which, through a study of the environment and the analysis of political, economic, social, technological, ecological and legal factors, allows the identification and qualitative and quantitative analysis of risks. This work, in turn, is based on the study of the 10 knowledge areas defined by the Project Management Institute (PMI), in its PMBOK guide for the identification of risks. Considering the above, it is proposed to build a probabilistic model from the cash flow of the real estate projects under study, for subsequent computational simulation through the Monte Carlo method, in order to get the financial valuation indicators and the AIU (Administration, Incidentals and Utilities) factor under conditions of uncertainty. The method will allow obtaining equations and graphs of said indicators for comparison with the traditional method.