Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT ::Examinando por Materia "QUIEBRA - LEGISLACION

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Estimación del riesgo de crédito en empresas del sector real en Colombia
(Universidad EAFIT, 2010) Sepúlveda Rivillas, Claudia; Reina Gutiérrez, Walter; Gutiérrez Betancur, Juan Carlos
This paper proposes a Probit Model for unbalanced panel data with random effects to estimate the probability of bankruptcy (default) of the real sector firms in Colombia, to be used in the inferring of credit risk, taking information of solvent and in financial distress firms, existing in databases of the Superintendencia de Sociedades and B.P.R, for the period 2002‐2008. The development of the work started with a fundamental analysis, focusing on indicators of profitability, leverage, liquidity and solvency proposed by Penman (2010). This research emphasizes the operational and financial leverage, found that these indicators as well as the solvency have a statistically significant influence on the probability of bankruptcy. Another finding is that belonging to construction and manufacturing sectors, increases the bankruptcy likelihood, while belonging to the transport sector diminishes it.