Examinando por Materia "Logistic regression"
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Ítem Airline choice model for an international round-trip flight considering outbound and return flight schedules(Warsaw University of Technology, 2020-01-01) Munoz C.; Laniado H.; Córdoba J.; Universidad EAFIT. Escuela de Ciencias; Modelado MatemáticoThis paper quantified the impact of outbound and return flight schedule preferences on airline choice for international trips. Several studies have used airline choice data to identify preferences and trade-offs of different air carrier service attributes, such as travel time, fare and flight schedule. However, estimation of the effect return flight schedules have on airline choice for an international round-trip flight has not yet been studied in detail. Therefore, this study introduces attributes related to return flight characteristics and round-trip flight schedule interaction into the airline choice models, which have not previously been reported in the literature. We developed a stated preference survey that includes round-trip fares based on flight schedule combinations and the number of days prior to departure fares was purchased. We applied modelling techniques using a set of stated preference data. A mixed logit model was tested for the presence of heterogeneity in passengers' preferences. Our results indicated that models with attributes related to return flight and its interaction with outbound flight attributes have a superior fit compared with models only based on attributes reported in the literature review. The model found shows that airfare, travel time, arrival preference schedule in the outward journey, departure preference in the return journey and the schedule combination of round-trip flight are significantly affecting passenger choice behaviour in international round-trip flights. Sensitivity analysis of airline service characteristics and their marketing implications are conducted. The analysis reports seven policies with the greatest impact on each airline choice probabilities. It shows that by reducing travel time and airfare and by adopting an afternoon and night schedule preference for outbound and return flight, respectively, the highest probability on airline choice would be reached. This research contributes to the current literature by enhancing the understanding of how passengers choose airlines, considering both outbound and inbound journey characteristics. Thus, this study provides an analytical tool designed to provide a better understanding of international round-trip flight demand determinants and support carrier decisions. © 2020 Warsaw University of Technology. All rights reserved.Ítem Airline choice model for an international round-trip flight considering outbound and return flight schedules(Warsaw University of Technology, 2020-01-01) Munoz C.; Laniado H.; Córdoba J.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ingeniería Mecánica; Estudios en Mantenimiento (GEMI)This paper quantified the impact of outbound and return flight schedule preferences on airline choice for international trips. Several studies have used airline choice data to identify preferences and trade-offs of different air carrier service attributes, such as travel time, fare and flight schedule. However, estimation of the effect return flight schedules have on airline choice for an international round-trip flight has not yet been studied in detail. Therefore, this study introduces attributes related to return flight characteristics and round-trip flight schedule interaction into the airline choice models, which have not previously been reported in the literature. We developed a stated preference survey that includes round-trip fares based on flight schedule combinations and the number of days prior to departure fares was purchased. We applied modelling techniques using a set of stated preference data. A mixed logit model was tested for the presence of heterogeneity in passengers' preferences. Our results indicated that models with attributes related to return flight and its interaction with outbound flight attributes have a superior fit compared with models only based on attributes reported in the literature review. The model found shows that airfare, travel time, arrival preference schedule in the outward journey, departure preference in the return journey and the schedule combination of round-trip flight are significantly affecting passenger choice behaviour in international round-trip flights. Sensitivity analysis of airline service characteristics and their marketing implications are conducted. The analysis reports seven policies with the greatest impact on each airline choice probabilities. It shows that by reducing travel time and airfare and by adopting an afternoon and night schedule preference for outbound and return flight, respectively, the highest probability on airline choice would be reached. This research contributes to the current literature by enhancing the understanding of how passengers choose airlines, considering both outbound and inbound journey characteristics. Thus, this study provides an analytical tool designed to provide a better understanding of international round-trip flight demand determinants and support carrier decisions. © 2020 Warsaw University of Technology. All rights reserved.Ítem Análisis y cuantificación de la probabilidad de incumplimiento en una cartera de crédito de una cooperativa de ahorro y crédito en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2022) Boutrous Restrepo, Jennifer Maria; Yepes Montoya, Elian; Támara Ayús, Armando LeninÍtem Determinantes financieros del fracaso empresarial en Colombia(Universidad EAFIT, 2021) Vega Cabrera, Ana Patricia; Garzón Garzón, Ramón; Restrepo Tobón, Diego AlexanderThis project identifies the financial variables that determine business failure in Colombia from 1995 to 2018, controlling factors such as fixed time and macro-sector effects for lagged values of the variables at one, two and three years. The financial indicators which turned out to better explain business failure were determined based on the financial statements reported by Colombian companies to the Enterprise Information System (Sistema de Información Empresarial, SIREM), of Superintendencia de Sociedades, and through logistic regression logit model analysis. As a result, the most relevant variables which measure the probability of bankruptcy for a company are related to liquidity (Available / sales and current assets / total assets), solvency (Total liabilities / total assets) and control by size (Total assets and operative income). Understanding the factors which determine companies’ failure, eases administrators on appropriate decision making, taking required measures to avoid non-compliance events that risk financial survival and stability of the enterprises.Ítem Diseño de un modelo de scoring para el otorgamiento de crédito de consumo en una compañía de financiamiento colombiana(Universidad EAFIT, 2017) Arango Duque, Laura; Restrepo Baena, Daniel; Henao Jassan, RodrigoCredit scorings are tools used since the 1970s to grant a probability of default to the applicant of a credit, to weigh their qualitative and quantitative variables; and in turn, including the conditions of the requested credit -- The use of scoring has been boosted since the 1990s, in order to mitigate the credit risk of the requests and to find the clients that fit the profile desired by the entity, complying with what was established by the regulator regarding the implementation of a risk system that reduces economic losses taking care of each stage of the credit cycle, in this case specifically, the granting -- Therefore, the objective of this work is to design a scoring model based on the methodology of logistic regression for a financial institution of the valle de Aburrá, supervised by the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, based on information provided by the entity, which comprises qualitative and quantitative variables of a group of clients in a set period of timeÍtem Landslide susceptibility assessment in mountainous and tropical scarce-data regions using remote sensing data : a case study in the Colombian Andes(Universidad EAFIT, 2017) Ruiz Vásquez, Diana; Aristizábal, EdierLandslides triggered by rainfall are one of the most frequent causes for natural disasters in the tropical and mountainous countries, such as Colombia. However landslide susceptibility assessments are often limited due to the scarcity of reliable observations and available information, particularly in remote high-mountain regions. Although Colombia is a tropical and mountainous terrains dominated by landslide prone region, it has little availability of data for landslide susceptibility assessment. This study presents the application of a logistic regression model to assess landslide susceptibility in the La Liboariana catchment. It is a basin on a tropical inaccessible terrain in northern Colombian Andes, where on May 18th, 2015, more than 40 landslides and an associated flash flood and debris flow afterwards killed 104 inhabitants. The applied approach is based on free access remote sensing tools to complete and obtain the missing landslide causative factors. To select key factors related to landslide occurrence the prediction and successes performance of the susceptibility maps for each combination of landslide causative factors was estimated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC). The results show that only three factors gave the best predicting accuracy. All the factors were obtained by free remote sensing tools, indicating they can provide enough information to achieve a successful approach to landslide susceptibility assessment in complex terrains as the study area. This suggests that the proposed approach could be implemented in several tropical regions with similar characteristics based only in free access information.Ítem Modelación de la quiebra empresarial en el sector de la construcción(Universidad EAFIT, 2020) Moreno Valencia, Rodrigo Alejandro; Balcázar Bedoya, José Alfredo; Támara Ayus, Armando LeninÍtem Modelo para la determinación de la probabilidad de incumplimiento en el riesgo crediticio(Universidad EAFIT, 2020) Segura Ramos, José Eduardo; Támara Ayús, Armando LeninÍtem Variables de la experiencia de usuario (UX) que posibilitan o inhiben el pago por videojuegos en dispositivos móviles(Universidad EAFIT, 2019) Uribe Román, Alejandro; Gentilin, Mariano; Monroy, Juan CarlosThis project presents the investigation on the way in which the user experience (UX) of videogames in mobile devices influences the payment, with the idea of providing tools to the interested parties that allow to improve the conversion, understanding the user as the person who plays video games at least once a week. Topics such as the UX, the user of video games, the user experience focused on the videogame and the CEGE model (Core Elements of Gaming Experience) were addressed, with the latter being the model that will be used. The methodology used was quantitative, through online surveys applied to adults who play on mobile devices at least once a week. For the design of the survey, the Google Forms platform was used and shared through the social networks Facebook and WhatsApp. Statistical analyzes were applied such as logistic regression, to identify and hierarchize the variables of the UX according to the payment, and cluster analysis, to characterize the player who pays. This investigation allowed to identify that the UX influences the payment for the videogame, detecting the variables with higher levels of influence: the enjoyment, the relationship between graphics and sound effects, the control associated with the knowledge of the actions and the clarity in the graphics. The profile of the player who pays and his differences with the player who does not pay was also determined.