Examinando por Materia "Hurtos"

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    Ítem
    Factores socioeconómicos y variables de disuasión que explican la criminalidad en Colombia entre el 2010 y 2017
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2020) Arango Sandoval, Sara; Restrepo Orrego, Carolina; Tobón Zapata, Santiago
    This paper is an empirical application of the Becker-Ehrlich model, to determine some factors that influence the crime rate in the municipalities of Colombia and contribute to the crime economics studies carried out in the country. Based on panel data for municipalities of Colombia from 2010 to 2017, the determinants of crime rates were estimated using a fixed effects model where the cross-sectional units are municipalities and temporary units the years. The main variables of interest were those that conceptually approximate the Becker-Ehrlich model: the catch rate (associated with deterrence and probability of capture), and the industry tax payment rate (associated with the economic dynamics of the municipality, which serve as a proxy for the opportunity cost of going to the legal labor market). The specification of fixed effects manages to control municipal idiosyncratic characteristics that do not vary over time (such as culture), and annual shocks common to all municipalities (such as changes in national public policies). In general, these results are relevant to guiding future investigations into economics crime and serve to make several policy recommendations that contribute to the fight against crime in the country.
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    Publicación
    Hurto a personas en la ciudad de Medellín : análisis predictivo de la cantidad de casos en diferentes zonas de la ciudad a partir de modelos de machine learning implementando técnicas de MLOps
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2023) Arboleda Colorado, Jeferson Stiven; Martínez Vargas, Juan David
    Robbery of individuals in Medellín is an issue demanding immediate attention. This prompted the study of the phenomenon within an analytics project, spanning data collection, database construction, modeling, and production deployment. It's worth noting that MLOps methodology was employed utilizing AWS services. Visual tools related to the phenomenon were integrated, facilitating analysis.
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    Publicación
    Medellín seguro : predicción inteligente del número de hurtos a personas con algoritmos basados en series temporales
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Guerra Medina, Cindy Paola; Moreno Reyes, Nicolas Alberto
    Today, we are immersed in the data revolution, an era characterized by the importance of understanding past events to predict the future, and from these, support strategies that facilitate decision-making in advance. In this context, Colombia faces important challenges in terms of security and coexistence, challenges that can be addressed or estimated through data analysis; in Medellín, the open data portal Medata (medata.gov.co), allows access to historical and descriptive statistics on the incidence of crimes against persons such as theft; which is a recurring crime that affects the security, quality of life and economy of citizens. This project proposes the use of time series algorithms implemented in the IBM SPSS Modeler platform, a robust and flexible tool that facilitates the programming of predictive model competition (IBM, 2023, SPSS Modeler. Through its ability to identify patterns, trends and seasonality in historical data, it seeks to estimate the future incidence of theft from persons in the city of Medellín, disaggregating the analysis at the level of communes and neighborhoods. The projections will be made on a monthly basis for the months of October, November and December 2024, which will serve as input for the planning of preventive security strategies that contribute to the prioritization of areas that require greater attention and optimize available resources that minimize the negative impacts of crime and generate a greater sense of tranquility and confidence in citizens.