Examinando por Materia "Humedad"

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    Modelación de excedencias de periodos secos y húmedos en la cuenca del río Porce mediante procesos de Poisson no homogéneos
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Ferrucho Maloof, Isaac Eli; Suárez Sierra, Biviana Marccela; Carmona Duque, Alejandra María
    The present study analyzes the periods of precipitation deficits and excesses in the Porce river basin, Colombia, during the period 1970 to 2023. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and monthly precipitation series data from meteorological stations selected for their data completeness in the Porce river basin, a model based on Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP) was developed and applied to identify and characterize these periods. Different NHPP configurations, such as linear, potential and exponential intensity functions, were evaluated. The results indicate that power-law and linear models, in most cases, provide a superior fit for estimating drought and wet periods, while exponential models presented notable limitations in the ability to accurately represent extreme drought and wet events. This finding underscores the importance of choosing appropriate models that respond to the climatic and geographic particularities of the region, contributing significantly to the improvement of water resources management and planning.