Examinando por Materia "Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean"

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    Descifrando la relación entre inversión privada y cultivos de coca : caso del contexto colombiano entre 2001 y 2009
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Botero Bolívar, Francisco Javier; Echeverri Valencia, María Fernanda; Chaparro Cardona, Juan Camilo
    The question of economic growth is a fundamental one for every economy. Therefore, it is crucial to delve into the variables that can potentially impact private investment, a key driver of growth. Over the past decades, the armed conflict has posed a persistent challenge for Colombia, affecting its economic and social development as well as political stability. This thesis aims to shed light on the relationship between coca crops, as proxy of armed conflict, and private investment in Colombia, a topic of significant importance for the country's future. Through existing literature, armed conflict is characterized by the economic and social fields. In order to capture the effect of the conflict's economy, the relation between illicit coca crops and the presence of armed groups is described. The social aspect is reflected in homicide and kidnapping rates, both measured per 100,000 inhabitants. To better contextualize the outlook, an econometrical analysis of time series at a national level is realized between 2001 and 2022 of the number of hectares of coca detected and favorable investment environment (variable of the Encuesta de Opinión Industrial Conjunta [EOIC] made by Asociación Nacional de Empresarios [ANDI]). This exercise allows a more detailed analysis at the municipal level between 2001 and 2009, in which the impact of the percentage of area detected from illicit coca crops, as well as homicide and kidnapping rates per 100.000 inhabitants in the private gross domestic product (GDP), discounting the public expenditure. In these empirical exercises, there are indications of unidirectional causality from the favorable investment environment to the detected coca crop area. Similarly, econometric models mostly yield results consistent with the literature, as there is a negative impact of illicit crops and the kidnapping rate on private investment.