Examinando por Materia "Exposure models"

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    Desarrollo de una metodología para la elaboración de modelos de exposición con fines de riesgo sísmico a partir de información censal. Caso de aplicación : Santiago de Cali, Colombia
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Arenas Guzmán, Juliana; Acevedo Jaramillo, Ana Beatriz
    This work presents a methodology to develop exposure models for residential buildings using data from the 2018 Colombian Population and Housing Census. An exposure model compiles information about the infrastructure of a location and the parameters that define its behavior under external loads; it is used together with hazard and vulnerability models in catastrophic risk analysis. Census data are valuable because they are public, cover the entire country, and allow estimation of relevant information such as number of buildings, number of floors, construction materials, and uses. The methodology uses the census level of disaggregation in urban areas (block level) and variables from housing surveys, such as wall material, socioeconomic level, and number of inhabitants. Based on these surveys, the number of residential buildings is estimated. In Cali, 326,382 buildings were identified with more than 1.7 million inhabitants. To assign structural typologies, three variables were used: number of housing units per building, socioeconomic level, and wall material; the latter correlates with structural typology, although it may be associated with multiple categories. For this study, information from 24,499 building surveys conducted by the Cali Mayor’s Office was used. The developed model made it possible to create an exposure scenario at the block level that includes number of buildings, structural typology, and inhabitants. Validation against existing models showed differences between 6–11%, values considered acceptable and consistent. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by government entities to develop exposure models and support seismic risk assessment across the national territory.
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    Seismic risk assessment for the residential buildings of the major three cities in Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali
    (EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH INST, 2020-01-01) Acevedo A.B.; Yepes-Estrada C.; González D.; Silva V.; Mora M.; Arcila M.; Posada G.; Mecánica Aplicada
    This study presents a seismic risk assessment and a set of earthquake scenarios for the residential building stock of the three largest metropolitan centers of Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín and Cali (with 8.0, 2.5, and 2.4 million inhabitants, respectively). A uniform methodology was followed for the development of the seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure models, thus allowing a direct comparison between the seismic risk of the different cities. Risk metrics such as exceedance probability curves and average annual losses were computed for each city. The earthquake scenarios were selected considering events whose direct economic impact is similar to the aggregated loss for a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years. Results show a higher mean aggregate loss ratio for Cali and similar mean aggregate loss ratios for Bogotá and Medellín. All of the models used in this study are openly accessible, enabling risk modelers, engineers, and stakeholders to explore them for disaster risk management. © The Author(s) 2020.
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    Publicación
    Seismic risk assessment for the residential buildings of the major three cities in Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali
    (EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH INST, 2020-01-01) Acevedo A.B.; Yepes-Estrada C.; González D.; Silva V.; Mora M.; Arcila M.; Posada G.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ingeniería de Producción; Materiales de Ingeniería
    This study presents a seismic risk assessment and a set of earthquake scenarios for the residential building stock of the three largest metropolitan centers of Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín and Cali (with 8.0, 2.5, and 2.4 million inhabitants, respectively). A uniform methodology was followed for the development of the seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure models, thus allowing a direct comparison between the seismic risk of the different cities. Risk metrics such as exceedance probability curves and average annual losses were computed for each city. The earthquake scenarios were selected considering events whose direct economic impact is similar to the aggregated loss for a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years. Results show a higher mean aggregate loss ratio for Cali and similar mean aggregate loss ratios for Bogotá and Medellín. All of the models used in this study are openly accessible, enabling risk modelers, engineers, and stakeholders to explore them for disaster risk management. © The Author(s) 2020.