Examinando por Materia "Epidemiology"
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Ítem A Dynamic Approach to Modeling Count Data Based on Intensity Functions of Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes and Functional Data Techniques(Universidad EAFIT, 2024) Chavarría Serna, Juan Esteban; Ortiz Arias, Santiago; Velasco, HenryÍtem An alternative model to explain the vectorial capacity using as example Aedes aegypti case in dengue transmission(Elsevier BV, 2019-01-01) Catano-Lopez A.; Rojas-Diaz D.; Laniado H.; Arboleda-Sánchez S.; Puerta-Yepes M.E.; Lizarralde-Bejarano D.P.; Catano-Lopez A.; Rojas-Diaz D.; Laniado H.; Arboleda-Sánchez S.; Puerta-Yepes M.E.; Lizarralde-Bejarano D.P.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Matemáticas y AplicacionesVectorial capacity (VC), as a concept that describes the potential of a vector to transmit a pathogen, has had historical problems related to lacks in dimensional significance and high error propagation from parameters that take part in the model to output. Hence, values estimated with those equations are not sufficiently reliable to consider in control strategies or vector population study. In this paper, we propose a new VC model consistent at dimensional level, i.e., the definition and the equation of VC have same and consistent units, with a parameter estimation method and mathematical structure that reduces the uncertainty in model output, using as a case of study an Aedes aegypti population of the municipality of Bello, Colombia. After a literature review, we selected one VC equation following biological, measurability and dimensional criteria, then we rendered a local and global sensitivity analysis, identifying the mortality rate of mosquitoes as a target component of the equation. Thus, we studied the Weibull and Exponential distributions as probabilistic models that represent the expectation of mosquitoes infective life, intending to include the best distribution in a selected VC structure. The proposed mortality rate estimation method includes a new parameter that represents an increase or decrease in vector mortality, as it may apply. We noticed that its estimation reduces the uncertainty associated with the expectation of mosquitoes' infective life expression, which also reduces the output range and variance in almost a half. Virology; Applied mathematics; Health sciences; Epidemiology; Infectious disease; Mortality; Uncertainty analysis; Vectorial capacity; Sensitivity analysis; Dengue © 2019 The AuthorsÍtem An alternative model to explain the vectorial capacity using as example Aedes aegypti case in dengue transmission(Elsevier BV, 2019-01-01) Catano-Lopez A.; Rojas-Diaz D.; Laniado H.; Arboleda-Sánchez S.; Puerta-Yepes M.E.; Lizarralde-Bejarano D.P.; Universidad EAFIT. Escuela de Ciencias; Modelado MatemáticoVectorial capacity (VC), as a concept that describes the potential of a vector to transmit a pathogen, has had historical problems related to lacks in dimensional significance and high error propagation from parameters that take part in the model to output. Hence, values estimated with those equations are not sufficiently reliable to consider in control strategies or vector population study. In this paper, we propose a new VC model consistent at dimensional level, i.e., the definition and the equation of VC have same and consistent units, with a parameter estimation method and mathematical structure that reduces the uncertainty in model output, using as a case of study an Aedes aegypti population of the municipality of Bello, Colombia. After a literature review, we selected one VC equation following biological, measurability and dimensional criteria, then we rendered a local and global sensitivity analysis, identifying the mortality rate of mosquitoes as a target component of the equation. Thus, we studied the Weibull and Exponential distributions as probabilistic models that represent the expectation of mosquitoes infective life, intending to include the best distribution in a selected VC structure. The proposed mortality rate estimation method includes a new parameter that represents an increase or decrease in vector mortality, as it may apply. We noticed that its estimation reduces the uncertainty associated with the expectation of mosquitoes' infective life expression, which also reduces the output range and variance in almost a half. Virology; Applied mathematics; Health sciences; Epidemiology; Infectious disease; Mortality; Uncertainty analysis; Vectorial capacity; Sensitivity analysis; Dengue © 2019 The AuthorsÍtem Depresión: un trastorno frecuente en pacientes con enfermedades coronarias(Universidad EAFIT, 2020-12-01) Martinez Guerrero, Christian Alexander; Martinez-Guerrero, Christian Alexander; Henao Pérez, Marcela; López Medina, Diana Carolina; Lemos, Mariantonia; Ríos Zapata, Paula; Estudios en PsicologíaÍtem The epidemic threshold theorem with social and contact heterogeneity(SPIE-INT SOC OPTICAL ENGINEERING, 2008-03-17) Palacio, D.H.; Giraldo, J.O.; Arias, R.D.G.; Palacio, D.H.; Giraldo, J.O.; Arias, R.D.G.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Lógica y ComputaciónThe threshold theorem of an epidemic SIR model was compared when infectious and susceptible individuals have homogeneous mixing and heterogeneous social status and when individuals of random networks have contact heterogeneity. Particularly the effect of vaccination in such models is considered when: individuals or nodes are exposed to impoverished, vaccination and loss of immunity. An equilibrium analysis and local stability of small perturbations about the equilibrium values were implemented using computer algebra. Numerical simulations were executed in order to describe the dynamic of transmission of diseases and changes of the basic reproductive rate. The implications of these results are examined around the threats to the global public health security.Ítem Estimación de parámetros, análisis de sensibilidad y validación del modelo SIR aplicado a datos históricos del virus A(H1N1) en México.(Universidad EAFIT, 2021-04-13) Gómez Osorio, Hamilton; Isaza Cadavid, Santiago; Osorio Marulanda, Pablo A.; Universidad EAFIT, Escuela de Ciencias, Departamento de Ciencias MatemáticasEste trabajo busca analizar el comportamiento epidemiológico de una enfermedad transmisible como la influenza A(H1N1), a partir de un modelo SIR, aplicado a un grupo de personas diagnósticadas con la enfermedad en México en el año 2009. En este se realiza una respectiva estimación de parámetros poblacionales, como lo es la tasa de contagio y la tasa de recuperación, y un análisis de sensibilidad utilizando la herramienta Simulink de MATLAB.Ítem Mackendrick: A Maple Package oriented to symbolic computational epidemiology(SPRINGER, 2006-01-01) Ospina, Juan; Hincapie, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan; Hincapie, Doracelly; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Lógica y ComputaciónA Maple Package named Mackendrick is presented. Such package is oriented to symbolic computational epidemiology. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006.Ítem Regulaciones mundiales antitabaco, regulación colombiana y proyecciones de la legislación en Colombia: análisis comparativo(Universidad EAFIT, 2013) González Posada, Federico; Uribe de Correa, Beatríz AmparoDesde el descubrimiento de América el tabaco ha sido uno de los productos con mayor difusión mundial, pero sólo fue hasta principios del siglo XX, y con el impulso dado por la Primera y la Segunda Guerra Mundial, que se generó una industria global alrededor de la comercialización de sus productos -- Con esta expansión del producto y la evolución en la medicina se pudo identificar que el consumo del tabaco tiene importantes repercusiones en la salud y que, debido a su consumo generalizado en la sociedad y su alto nivel de adicción, constituía un problema de salud global -- Se estima que de seguir la tendencia, para el año 2030 habrán muerto mil millones de personas por enfermedades relacionadas con el consumo de tabaco -- Teniendo en cuenta esta consideración, la Organización Mundial de la Salud crea el Convenio Marco para el Control del Tabaco, en el cual se les dan a los Estados herramientas para realizar modificaciones en sus legislaciones con el fin de desestimular el consumo. Este convenio ha venido siendo adoptado por varios países y su implementación varía entre cada uno dependiendo de la manera en que fue legislado -- Colombia a partir del año 2009 realizó la implementación de su legislación antitabaco siguiendo las recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud -- Sin embargo mundialmente se evidencia una tendencia a establecer normas cada vez más estrictas sobre el consumo de tabaco -- La intención de este trabajo es, por medio de la comparación de varias regulaciones a nivel mundial, identificar las posibles tendencias que tendrá la regulación antitabaco en ColombiaÍtem Spatial epidemic patterns recognition using computer algebra(SPRINGER, 2007-01-01) Hincapié, D.; Ospina, J.; Hincapié, D.; Ospina, J.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Lógica y ComputaciónAn exploration in Symbolic Computational bio-surveillance is showed. The main obtained results are that the geometry of the habitat determines the critical parameters via the zeroes of the Bessel functions and the explicit forms of the static and non-static spatial epidemic patterns. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.Ítem Towards a holistic framework to model epidemics in presence of uncertainty : formulation of mathematical models and estimation of confidence intervals(Universidad EAFIT, 2021) Rojas Díaz, Daniel; Vélez Sánchez, Carlos Mario; Puerta Yepes, María Eugenia; Cadavid Moreno, Carlos AlbertoÍtem Understanding epidemics from mathematical models: Details of the 2010 dengue epidemic in Bello (Antioquia, Colombia)(Elsevier Inc., 2017-03-01) Lizarralde-Bejarano, D.P.; Arboleda-Sánchez, S.; Puerta-Yepes, M.E.; Lizarralde-Bejarano, D.P.; Arboleda-Sánchez, S.; Puerta-Yepes, M.E.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Matemáticas y AplicacionesDengue is the most threatening vector-borne viral disease in Colombia. At the moment, there is no treatment or vaccine available for its control or prevention; therefore, the main measure is to exert control over mosquito population. To reduce the economic impact of control measures, it is important to focus on specific characteristics related to local dengue epidemiology at the local level, and know the main factors involved in an epidemic. To this end, we used a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations and experimental data regarding mosquito populations from Bello (Antioquia, Colombia) to simulate the epidemic occurred in 2010. The results showed that the parameters to which the incidence of dengue cases are most sensitive are the biting and mortality rates of adult mosquitoes as well as the virus transmission probabilities. Finally, we found that the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) of this epidemic was between 1.5 and 2.7, with an infection force (?) of 0.061, meaning that R0 values slightly above one are sufficient to result in a significant dengue outbreak in this region. © 2016 Elsevier Inc.