Examinando por Materia "Delta Cost / Delta Time Ratio"

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    Análisis de riesgos materializados en la construcción del hotel Boutique Cinco Quintas
    (Universidad EAFIT, 2025) Cuesta Marulanda, Claudia Patricia; Meza Velásquez, Juan Carlos; Guerrero Latorre, Jorge Harley
    This research analyzes the materialized risks during the construction of the Cinco Quintas Boutique Hotel in the Historic Center of Cartagena, Colombia, aiming to improve risk management in similar real estate projects. Through a mixed methodology combining semi-structured interviews with Montecarlo simulation, sixteen materialized risks were identified and evaluated. Qualitative analysis revealed that the most critical risks were changes in structural plans, groundwater level issues, conditions of old walls, and increased costs due to the pandemic. Quantitative analysis demonstrated a significant relationship between time and cost deviations, with critical activities such as special installations, electrical installations, and air conditioning equipment showing the highest impact ratios (ΔC/ΔT>0.9). Four risk propagation chains were identified (structural→social, structural→regulatory, structural→economic, and communication), evidencing the interconnected nature of risks in heritage projects. Montecarlo simulation revealed that a contingency of 3.1% of the expected cost was required for a 90% confidence level, and that just four critical activities concentrated 70% of the project's variability. The study proposes specific recommendations for hotel projects in historic centers, emphasizing the importance of proactive and systemic risk management.