Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT :: Examinando por Materia "ARANCELES DE ADUANA

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Impacto sectorial de la guerra comercial en las exportaciones colombianas a Estados Unidos y China, 2018-2024
(Universidad EAFIT, 2025-07-30) Cruz Prado, Alejandro; Goda, Thomas
This thesis examines how the US-China trade war (2018–2024) affected Colombian exports to both countries at the product level. Using monthly data at the HS10 level (for the US) and HS08 level (for China) and applying a Difference-in-Differences model with continuous treatment, it estimates the effect of tariffs on Colombian trade. Results show no statistically significant impact of the tariffs China imposed on the US on Colombian exports to China. Conversely, a small but significant decline was observed in Colombian exports to the US due to tariffs the USA imposed on China, contrary to standard trade diversion expectations. A qualitative analysis of the five most affected products reveals that input demand contraction dominated the effects on Colombian exports to China, while trade diversion occurred in a few US-bound Colombian products such as aluminum, plastics, and footwear. Overall, Colombia experienced limited trade diversion effects, with modest gains in some sectors but losses in others. The limited effects are likely due to weak GVC participation and declining industrial demand. The findings underscore the importance of product-level analysis when assessing third-country effects of trade conflicts in commodity-exporting economies.