Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT :: Examinando por Materia "ANSIEDAD

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Modelación probabilística y dinámica de la ansiedad mediante técnicas de clustering y modelos ocultos de Márkov
(Universidad EAFIT, 2026-01-30) Giraldo Tirado, Diego Alexander; Peña Palacio, Juan Alejadro
Anxiety constitutes a growing mental health issue with significant impacts on individual well-being, workplace productivity, and the costs associ-ated with disability. Despite advances in analytics applied to mental health, most existing approaches address anxiety from a static perspective, limiting themselves to detection or one-time classification tasks. This work proposes a probabilistic framework to model anxiety as a dynamic and stochastic process, integrating unsupervised learning techniques, Hidden Markov Models (HMM), and analysis of non-normal distributions. Based on psychological and behavior-al variables, observable profiles are identified through clustering, and latent anxiety states are inferred, along with their transition probabilities and long-term behavior. Additionally, a continuous distribution is fitted to the trans-formed psychological well-being indicator, and Value at Risk (VaR)-type met-rics are used to characterize extreme risk. The results show a dynamic dominat-ed by moderate and high anxiety states, with low well-being stability, and demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach for understanding and managing psychological risk in workplace contexts