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https://hdl.handle.net/10784/4547

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    Deterministic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) models applied to varicella outbreaks.
    (CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2008-05-01) Giraldo JO; Palacio DH; Giraldo JO; Palacio DH; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Lógica y Computación
    Deterministic SIR models were applied to simulate Susceptible-Infected-Removed and to estimate the threshold condition for varicella outbreaks in children, reported in Medellin, Colombia. The expected numbers of susceptible, infected and removed individuals were compared with observed cases from notification of varicella outbreaks to the local Board of Health and from survey data. The threshold condition was estimated by the basic reproductive ratio and by the relative removal rate, through which measures for preventing and curtailing the outbreaks were identified. The model demonstrated a reasonable fit to the observations, except in two of the six outbreaks which probably reflected under-registration of cases. In order to have prevented these outbreaks, between 4.4% and 52.9% of the susceptible population should have been vaccinated assuming an 85% vaccine effectiveness. Similarly, isolation of affected children should have been increased to between 4.3% and 44.8% per week.
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    Two-dimensional transport analysis of transdermal drug absorption with a non-perfect sink boundary condition at the skin-capillary interface
    (ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2013-07-01) Simon, Laurent; Ospina, Juan; Simon, Laurent; Ospina, Juan; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Lógica y Computación
    A transient percutaneous drug absorption model was solved in two dimensions. Clearance of the topically-applied pharmaceutical occured at the skin-capillary boundary. Timolol penetration profiles in the dermal tissue were produced revealing concentration gradients in the directions normal and parallel to the skin surface. Ninety-eight percent of the steady-state flux was reached after 85. h or four time constants. The analytical solution procedure agreed with published results. As the clearance rate increased relative to diffusion, the delivery rate and amount of drug absorbed into the bloodstream increased while the time to reach the equilibrium flux decreased. Researchers can apply the closed-form expressions to simulate the process, estimate key parameters and design devices that meet specific performance requirements. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.