Examinando por Autor "Puerta-Yepes, M.E."

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    Sensitivity, uncertainty and identifiability analyses to define a dengue transmission model with real data of an endemic municipality of Colombia
    (Public Library of Science, 2020-01-01) Lizarralde-Bejarano, D.P.; Rojas-Díaz, D.; Arboleda-Sánchez, S.; Puerta-Yepes, M.E.; Lizarralde-Bejarano, D.P.; Rojas-Díaz, D.; Arboleda-Sánchez, S.; Puerta-Yepes, M.E.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Matemáticas y Aplicaciones
    Dengue disease is a major problem for public health surveillance entities in tropical and subtropical regions having a significant impact not only epidemiological but social and economical. There are many factors involved in the dengue transmission process. We can evaluate the importance of these factors through the formulation of mathematical models. However, the majority of the models presented in the literature tend to be overparameterized, with considerable uncertainty levels and excessively complex formulations. We aim to evaluate the structure, complexity, trustworthiness, and suitability of three models, for the transmission of dengue disease, through different strategies. To achieve this goal, we perform structural and practical identifiability, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to these models. The results showed that the simplest model was the most appropriate and reliable when the only available information to fit them is the cumulative number of reported dengue cases in an endemic municipality of Colombia. © 2020 Lizarralde-Bejarano et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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    Understanding epidemics from mathematical models: Details of the 2010 dengue epidemic in Bello (Antioquia, Colombia)
    (Elsevier Inc., 2017-03-01) Lizarralde-Bejarano, D.P.; Arboleda-Sánchez, S.; Puerta-Yepes, M.E.; Lizarralde-Bejarano, D.P.; Arboleda-Sánchez, S.; Puerta-Yepes, M.E.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Matemáticas y Aplicaciones
    Dengue is the most threatening vector-borne viral disease in Colombia. At the moment, there is no treatment or vaccine available for its control or prevention; therefore, the main measure is to exert control over mosquito population. To reduce the economic impact of control measures, it is important to focus on specific characteristics related to local dengue epidemiology at the local level, and know the main factors involved in an epidemic. To this end, we used a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations and experimental data regarding mosquito populations from Bello (Antioquia, Colombia) to simulate the epidemic occurred in 2010. The results showed that the parameters to which the incidence of dengue cases are most sensitive are the biting and mortality rates of adult mosquitoes as well as the virus transmission probabilities. Finally, we found that the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) of this epidemic was between 1.5 and 2.7, with an infection force (?) of 0.061, meaning that R0 values slightly above one are sufficient to result in a significant dengue outbreak in this region. © 2016 Elsevier Inc.