Artículos

URI permanente para esta colección

https://hdl.handle.net/10784/27677

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Examinando Artículos por Autor "Arboleda, Sair"

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    Early Detection for Dengue Using Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) Analysis.
    (MDPI, 2016-03-29) Parra, Mayra Elizabeth; M.E PUERTA; Lisarralde, Diana Paola; Arboleda, Sair; Parra, Mayra Elizabeth; M.E PUERTA; Lisarralde, Diana Paola; Arboleda, Sair; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Matemáticas y Aplicaciones
    Dengue is a viral disease caused by a flavivirus that is transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. There is currently no specific treatment or commercial vaccine for its control and prevention; therefore, mosquito population control is the only alternative for preventing the occurrence of dengue. For this reason, entomological surveillance is recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) to measure dengue risk in endemic areas; however, several works have shown that the current methodology (aedic indices) is not sufficient for predicting dengue. In this work, we modified indices proposed for epidemic periods. The raw value of the epidemiological wave could be useful for detecting risk in epidemic periods; however, risk can only be detected if analyses incorporate the maximum epidemiological wave. Risk classification was performed according to Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) methodology. The modified indices were analyzed using several hypothetical scenarios to evaluate their sensitivity. We found that modified indices could detect spatial and differential risks in epidemic and endemic years, which makes them a useful tool for the early detection of a dengue outbreak. In conclusion, the modified indices could predict risk at the spatio-temporal level in endemic years and could be incorporated in surveillance activities in endemic places.
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    Ítem
    Mean-Field Semantics for a Process Calculus for Spatially-Explicit Ecological Models
    (OPEN PUBL ASSOC, 2016-01-01) Toro, Mauricio; Philippou, Anna; Arboleda, Sair; Puerta, Maria; Velez S, Carlos M.; Toro, Mauricio; Philippou, Anna; Arboleda, Sair; Puerta, Maria; Velez S, Carlos M.; Universidad EAFIT. Departamento de Ciencias; Matemáticas y Aplicaciones
    We define a mean-field semantics for S-PALPS, a process calculus for spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling of ecological systems. The new semantics of S-PALPS allows an interpretation of the average behavior of a system as a set of recurrence equations. Recurrence equations are a useful approximation when dealing with a large number of individuals, as it is the case in epidemiological studies. As a case study, we compute a set of recurrence equations capturing the dynamics of an individual-based model of the transmission of dengue in Bello (Antioquia), Colombia.